Flu Stories

by DemFromCT

Some new information on the bird flu prep situation. Today, HHS led a conference entitled Pandemic Planning: A Convening of the States. What's a little different is the recognition that preparedness goes way beyond just health and hospital experts.

Federal Government Begins Pandemic Planning with States

“Pandemic planning needs to go beyond public health”

Noting that communities will be on the front lines of any effort to stop or contain a pandemic, HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt today convened senior state and local officials to establish an integrated federal-state influenza-pandemic planning process. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff helped open the meeting. Officials from every U.S. state, territory, Puerto Rico and tribal governments participated. The officials were advised to plan broadly.

In announcing a National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza on Oct. 18, President Bush charged the Secretary with convening state and local public health officials from across the nation to discuss their plans for a pandemic, and to help them improve pandemic planning at the community level.

“By their nature, pandemics happen across the globe -- but their effects are excruciatingly local,” Secretary Leavitt said. “Pandemic planning needs to go beyond public health. Discussion at the state and local level needs to address how schools, businesses, public agencies and others participate in pandemic preparedness.

it is for that reason that Flu Wiki was started. Sections on anticipated problems and fictional scenarios cover exactly what Leavitt was talking about today, and the fictional scenario teaching method was built in to the HHS plan.   

Also of help to have in summary (and in one place) is the planning assumptions. How many ill, how many absent, etc. have been guesstimated elsewhere, but this makes it very official. (By the way, various critiques of the HHS plan can be found on the wiki here. One of the best is from the Congressional Research Service, which looks also at the contentious liability relief proposed by the plan (see p. 30) by way of background.)

This is certainly a necessary step. Acknowledging both the scope of the problem and the gaps that need to be filled are not fear and panic, but rather a sober approach to the issue. For example, from the planning assumptions:

The number of hospitalizations and deaths will depend on the virulence of the pandemic virus. Estimates differ about 10-fold between more and less severe scenarios. Two scenarios are presented based on extrapolation of past pandemic experience (Table 1). Planning should include the more severe scenario.

It doesn't matter what the estimate is of when a pandemic might hit. Preparation needs to be done regardles whether it's in a year or if it's in 10 years.

Will it be enough? Ah, that's another story altogether. Funds dropped from previous efforts in Congress will need to be added back, and we need to have a better summary of what actually occurred today (promised on the web site for later). The more information the public has, the better prepared we all will be, and the better we'll know what will be expected of the feds, the state and of us.

So stay tuned; undoubtedly you'll be hearing more.

Comments

[Meteor Blades]

Thanks for keeping us up-to-date with this and for your work on the Flu Wiki. I'm rarely one to panic, but thinking about THIS Administration being in charge if the pandemic does strike is enough to widen anybody's eyes.

[DemFromCT]

i think the Flu Wiki approach has been the right one. It was just validated by the Feds. Not that that changes anything.

[DemFromCT]

CIDRAP news coverage here

[DemFromCT]

see First Read

As the House returns to work today, NBC's Robert Bazell reports that Bush's urgent call for $7.1 billion to fight the threat of pandemic influenza remains unfunded. About three weeks ago, when the Labor-HHS appropriations bill was considered by the House, Republican members stripped the bill of several provisions, including the flu money. (The bill then went down to a stunning defeat.) The biggest complaint was a lack of offsets for the funds, though some members also questioned the urgency. The Senate funded the request, Bazell notes, but it failed in conference.

Since then, those in the House wanting to spend the money, including the Democratic leadership, have been looking for another vehicle for it. NBC's Viqueira reports that the money is on track to get included in one of the remaining two trains to leave the station -- either the Defense Department appropriations bill or the revived Labor-HHS bill, both of which must pass before Congress departs again. Viq says that right now, the money seems more likely to be attached to the Defense bill, and that it's expected to be about half of what Bush has requested.

Public health officials are very worried about this delay, Bazell reports. Most of the funds would go toward upgrading the nation's vaccine manufacturing capability which, per the general consensus, is woefully inadequate. Bazell says the United States at present could not make enough vaccine for its own citizens, let alone the rest of the world.