« ABC gives primetime exposure to James Dobson group! | Main | Political Consulting -- 5¢: Open Thread »

October 01, 2005


Playing for the 7 Rs in the gang of 14, or Weyrich, is so different than playing to the public.

Whatever the Democrats do, they have to explain it to their constituencies. And, if they're running for president they have diverse constituencies.

No Kagro, you must be mistaken. They only use applause-o-meters at airband contests, not Presidential politics.

Only five of the seven Rs are even arguably in play. And of those five, I don't count many who are terribly susceptible to the, "Yeah, you're right. You were reasonable and my team wasn't, so screw them," line of thinking.

I don't have anything else to offer them, and I do believe that those "aye" votes are all survivable for everyone who cast them, so I wouldn't have locked the doors and set the caucus room on fire. But that doesn't mean I have faith in the thinking. Nor do I think it's testable. Which means there'll be little enough learned with certainty that we could be vulnerable to the same play over and over again.

I too am very suspicious of "strategies that insist that careful gaming of Democratic votes on Roberts would make a difference in Bush's next nomination." One can not assume that the opponent in this particular chess game is anything other than a sociopath. Assuming that the Bush Republicans might be "fair" or reasonable or trustworthy is foolish. I'm through trusting them to any degree at all and through with ever giving them the benefit of a doubt about anything.

"That's why I've been suspicious of strategies that insist that careful gaming of Democratic votes on Roberts would make a difference in Bush's next nomination."

The votes were not intended to directly influence Bush's next nomination. They were intended to influence public opinion of the Democratic position when Bush makes his next nomination.

I'm even less hopeful of that result, muledriver. Republicans are already conducting the same kinds of P.R. campaigns they've successfully executed in the past, ignoring the actual vote count and pushing ahead with their plans to tar Democrats as obstructionist and extremist. I've not yet seen even cold, hard facts like the roll call be able to undo one of these pushes.

It's also giving something less than a full accounting to leave the impression that the votes were not intended to influence Bush's nomination -- that's why the word "directly" is key. Influencing public opinion is only useful in this calculus to the extent that it indirectly influences Bush's next nomination, supposedly by making him pause to think about what he's doing, which would be a first.

By the way, today's high profile nuclear option lie comes to us from James Taranto, who writes:

But in May, under threat of the so-called nuclear option--a GOP maneuver that would have changed Senate rules to abolish judicial filibusters--seven Democratic senators agreed to a compromise in which they disavowed the filibuster except in "extraordinary circumstances."


Anyway, if the Democratic compromisers do dishonor their agreement, Republicans can retaliate by going nuclear, vaporizing the filibuster forever.

Spot the spin? If Democrats invoke "extraordinary circumstances," they've "dishonore[d] their agreement." But if Republicans retaliate by going nuclear, they've apparently upheld it. Just another example of the "heads I win, tails you lose" formulation that turned the demand for an "up-or-down vote" into a demand for "up" votes and nothing else.

That's the lay of the land in the P.R. war. The Republicans hold the ground that's definable in black and white, and we're stuck defending the nuance again. When the GOP tries to make the obstructionist tag stick, our answer will be, "Well, since 22 of 44 Democrats voted for Roberts, we're neither for him nor against him, and see, what that means is..."

Smells like... victory.

Does the slight change in the political landscape and the (still remote but not off the radar) possibility of a Dem takeover in the 2006 election alter the GOP's strategy on the nuclear option? After all, the filibuster is the great tool of the minority, and the thing that gives each individual senator some serious bargaining power.

Interesting question, Mimikatz. I would imagine the Brownbacks of the world might still go after nukes, because they see it as critical to their ongoing popularity (witness the problems Fristie had when he DIDN'T go nuclear). That is, nukes is the way to keep power, not lose it.

But only about half the GOP Senators think like Brownback.

Note, the nuclear trigger has never been tested ... and there is substantial reason to believe it has deteriorated in storage.

The post-Bush era is on the horizon, GOP leadership is in comparative disarray, the next nominee will have difficulty commanding allegiance across the GOP Senate spectrum, and the nuclear doctrine -- together with all of its corollaries -- is not necessarily a precedent the GOP and their core sponsors want to live with when they have an uncertain grip on power in the intermediate future.

Like many on the political left, I’ve grown increasingly concerned with the political right’s apparent success. My immediate response was to try and stem the tide. Doing such things as offering letters to the editor, volunteering at a grass roots level, etc. I’ve also been watching for a reasoned response from the political left. Not so much a reflection of the political right’s network, but an effort to redefine the left in terms of its values. But the more I thought about the crisis the more I realized that my response was largely counterproductive. The reasons being

• The right’s response is a function of its network. The right’s poles of interest (libertarians, religious right, etc.) are increasingly taking a back seat to its network’s needs and consequently subjugating their basic values. AND the right’s network is easily co-opted (neocons) by ideas that the network values and not its poles of interest.
• The right’s network has become unstable. I believe that without the currently defined left it would quickly become chaos. It is vulnerable to swarm affects, its media apparatus is increasingly reflecting its network and its meta-message is losing its bite. This can be seen by the increasing volume and coherence to the network and not each pole’s basic values. The left pointing out the right’s crimes only helps stabilize the right’s network.
• The right’s network depends on the political left taking up an opposite position. The left has frequently done this to the effect of propping up the right’s framework and forcing the right’s poles (e.g., religious right) into an all or nothing response.
• I was defining myself and my network in context of the right’s network. Therefore, not based on distributed values but opposites. A good example is that I could frame my concern for environmental issues in terms the religious right would relate to -- god created the heavens and earth before he created man. Therefore, it was a core value to take care of the earth as a prerequisite to man being healthy, etc.
• I relealized that the left could talk directly to the right’s value poles. The edges of the left and right’s networks were essentially the eye of the hurricane that needed to be linked. Not a fight at the center as most folks talk about.
• Finally, I grew very concerned when I realized that the primary network model of the left would most likely be based on a venture capital market of ideas. And this sole configuration would most certainly become similar to the right’s. Thus offering very little in terms of real solutions/relief at the personal level, i.e., our children’s education, health, etc.
• So, the left needed a network model that could effectively link the edges of the right and left’s networks. Not the center vs. the center!

My belief is that by defining the left’s network into core value poles that are supported via a “venture capital model of ideas” a real sea change could take place, that the left must define these various idea pots as distributed core investment pools. The pools or funded services could be used by the left or right if they were in alignment. The reason being that the value poles would not know a left or right. It would effectively remove the center (current right’s network) from control. And let areas of mutual interest be channeled in a manner that the left was not LEFT behind. This would mean that the edge of the left’s and right’s networks would determine the overall political landscape and not each party’s political hacks. AND FINALLY, it was critical that the network not become the boss as demonstrated by the right’s current situation.

mature vs young hard mature women vieille salope mature amatrice mature fuck young young boy and mature mature vieille mature salope mature young first time mature and young boy < mature old fuck mature woman fucking girl hot mature men mature woman asshole mature pics free grosses.femmesmuresx.com grosse femme mature hairy bush mature mature hot movies film mature fuck dogs mature black busty photo penetration femme mature hot nasty mature galerie nylon mature brune mature nu hot wife mature blowjob woman mature mature free galerie rencontre femme mure femme mure amatrice cochon photo de femme mure hard cum her face mature photo x femme mure femme mure pour jeune homme 19ans mature mom cum photo gratuite fellation femme mure age mure nu gratuite x femme mure femme mure tres poilue photo femme mure amateur exhib rencontre coquin femme mure > femme mure et nu gratuit mure femme mure avec jeune mec recette and confiture and and mure photo x femme mure et ronde photo de femme mure xxx femme mure nu photo photo gratuite vieille mature nu mature busty babe gallery nymphomane mature amatrice lady mature mature drunk suck vieille saint girons photo vieille salope gratuit mature collant nylon galerie gratuite mature mature and granny mature lady posing femme amatrice mature vieille salope .com pipe hard concert hard rock berlin hard rock cafe black orchid rock nantes hard audrey tautou film hard archive journal hard pps hard ecoute musique hard rock couple hard roman photo hard film and x and hard photo hard de brigitte lahaie music hard core teen hard preview hard top nissan navara hard and top rencontre hard gratuite pps hard gratuit hard anal fucking photo gratuite femme hard peugeot dangel 505 hard top dvd x hard discount sodomie hard amateur pps humour hard liste hard discount essonne mature riding hard hard tv net hard xxx gratuit

The comments to this entry are closed.

Where We Met

Blog powered by Typepad