Miserable Failure

by DemFromCT

It's not that I'm only looking for "Bush is slipping" stories, it's that you can't miss them now. In the midst of an awkwardly crafted "look at me, I'm in charge" visit, the page one WaPo offers:

President struggles To Regain His Pre-Hurricane Swagger

A president who roamed across the national and world stages with an unshakable self-assurance that comforted Republicans and confounded critics since 2001 suddenly finds himself struggling to reclaim his swagger. Bush's standing with the public -- and within the Republican Party -- has been battered by a failed Social Security campaign, violence in Iraq, and most recently Hurricane Katrina. His approval ratings, 42 percent in the most recent Washington Post-ABC poll, have never been lower.

A president who normally thrives on tough talk and self-assurance finds himself at what aides privately describe as a low point in office, one that is changing the psychic and political aura of the White House, as well as its distinctive political approach.

In small, sometimes subtle but unmistakable ways, the president and top aides sound less certain, more conciliatory and willing to do something they avoided in the first term: admit mistakes.

This report has WH aides, Senators, Congressman, unnamed advisors and a host of voices (including the ubiquitous David Gergen) offering advice that Bush in the past would never have heard, and wouldn't have listened to if he did. Just in time for the Sunday shows, this image of the humbled President is not going to increase his popularity any. It, along with other stories, are chronicling the American public's giving up on this Presidency.

More to come on Iraq from TNH later, but one of the pieces to this puzzle is the idea that Americans want to spend money rebuilding the Gulf Coast, not Iraq. This flies in the face of the 'stay the course' message, and as Dan Froomkin notes, represents majority opinion.

As this Democracy Corps focus group notes, what Katrina has really done is give permission to America to let its inner Bush critic out.

In the past, criticisms of Bush’s failures on a wide range of homeland security measures – including port and border security, equipping first responders, and improving the flow of information within the law enforcement and intelligence communities – were completely ineffective because they simply would not believe that this president, who staked his entire presidency on his response to 9/11, would allow such wholesale security failures on his watch.

    Now, after Katrina, voters are asking serious questions about security here at home, and they increasingly see the massive deployment in Iraq, particularly of National Guard troops whose primary responsibility is homeland security and response to domestic disasters such as hurricanes, as a security risk here at home. The latest Newsweek poll shows 70 percent of Americans now believe Iraq has either increased the risk of a future terrorist attack in the U.S. (36 percent) or made no difference (34 percent). So if the current deployment of troops in Iraq is not making us safer from terrorist attacks but is leaving us more vulnerable to a variety of threats here at home, there is little rationale the White House will be able to offer these voters for ‘staying the course’ much longer. Again, they do not see immediate withdrawal as the answer, but there is a clear demand for a reordering of priorities that puts the needs of America first.

Further, and very importantly,

For over two years now, every focus group discussion of George W. Bush’s positive qualities has included the same basic ingredients. First and foremost, voters appreciate his leadership immediately after 9/11; they like his family (especially Laura Bush) and his strong commitment to his faith and traditional values; they like that he will state clearly what he believes and then stand up for those beliefs; and they believe he is deeply patriotic, cares about the country with a sincerity that most politicians can never know, and is “really trying hard” to do the right things, even if he seems to fail much more often than he succeeds. And for a lot of voters, those positives were enough to overlook his failings on so many issues, but not anymore.

These focus groups provide a rich understanding of a trend that is unmistakable in post-Katrina polling – an unprecedented pullback from Bush among all voters, most notably the Republican-leaning independents who provided his margin of victory and even many within his conservative and partisan base. This pullback is clearly based on his poor performance in office but is most notable because, while voters have long expressed disapproval of Bush’s performance on virtually all of the top issues facing the country, his personal charm and trustworthiness, combined with his appeals to faith and critical cultural issues, simply mattered more to a large percentage of voters. But that is no longer the case for most voters in the current environment.

This helps to explain how the hell this guy won in the first place. Denial and strategic need allowed everyone to forget what a miserable failure Bush was up until 9/10/01. That includes the 2000 election, and the inability to bring America together afterwards. What he couldn't do, Al Queda did, and ever since, it's been verboten to criticize the President (see 2002 mid-terms). But Bush is now reverting to form, and that helps to explain why that which had no traction in 2004 now will be seen in a completely different light, such as Halliburton getting no-bid contracts in the Gulf.

Bush apologists can get apoplectic all they want (and on the Internet, some will), but this is a significantly different landscape than a month ago. As noted in previous posts, conservatives are stepping up their criticism and doing a little distancing dance (hey, I was never a Bush supporter).

See Kagro X's excellent SCOTUS strategery thread, and keep in mind that once the player drops the cards, the hand doesn't seem the same.

Comments

[DemFromCT]

Steve Soto look at the same story in an unflattering way.

[DemFromCT]

Kagro astutely wants us to be clear about where Repub grumbling comes from; House, senate, WH, those without jobs, wannabes, etc. Therefore note:

Faced with accusations that the Bush administration is stocking the government with unqualified cronies, the Republican chairwoman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee is holding up the nomination of a lawyer with little background in immigration or customs to head the law enforcement agency in charge of those issues.

So now articles in the press start out with the assertion that Bush hires cronies. Well, now, who's lost control of the message, hmmm?

[Newsie8200]

I was about to pontificate on my own blog about this, but I might as well do it here.

For over two years now, every focus group discussion of George W. Bush’s positive qualities has included the same basic ingredients. First and foremost, voters appreciate his leadership immediately after 9/11; they like his family (especially Laura Bush) and his strong commitment to his faith and traditional values; they like that he will state clearly what he believes and then stand up for those beliefs; and they believe he is deeply patriotic, cares about the country with a sincerity that most politicians can never know, and is “really trying hard” to do the right things, even if he seems to fail much more often than he succeeds. And for a lot of voters, those positives were enough to overlook his failings on so many issues, but not anymore.

If you did some word association with voters in 2004, many would talk about 9/11 and the bullhorn moment, when give "George W. Bush." That was a widespread image. It stuck with people. To overcome that, the center-left would need BushCo to provide a competing image that resonates as strongly on an emotional level. Dubya's post-Katrina fumbling did that. The 7 minute My Pet Goat moment was enough for the Democratic base, but not enough for the majority of Americans.

I watched video of focus groups last year of undecided voters and had to do an analysis of them for class. That voters were willing to look the other way on everything else because of 9/11 was so striking, even for some committed Kerry voters. It was what tipped the 2004 election, and there was little KE04 could do to compete with the Bush bullhorn image. Just look at the bullhorn-moment allusions in the BC04 ads.

Americans respond to images. It was impossible for KE04 to create something that would resonate as much as the bullhorn image. They did what they could (get Dubya off his game in the first debate), but only a competing image created by BushCo themselves could compete, since that wouldn't allow their apologists to say that it was just all partisan.

One could say that when the N.O. levees broke, the anti-Bush flood gates opened.

[DemFromCT]

Newsie, we got ourselves a clear case of Bush-fatigue. Now, maybe, we can have a debate about the issues.

[Newsie8200]

Hopefully, we can have a debate about the issues.

[KdmFromPhila]

Good analysis, as always. One things bothers me about the stories on Bush's declining popularity: nothing in them suggests that the Democrats are willing or able to seize the opportunity to articulate a different vision that would give more coherence to their own critiques: port security, economic policy, cronyism in the rebuilding of NO etc. Newsie is exactly right that a competing image has dislodge the memory of the bullhorn (or bullsh--), so now there might be more opportunities to offer real alternatives to Bush's policies.

[Mimikatz]

Right. Where are the Democrats? Ok, we don't roll out new products in August, but now it's September. The Dems need a simple strategy that says: Whatever the original intentions, Iraq is not getting better and we need the resources here at home. Start an orderly, phased withdrawal of troops now and tell the Iraqis and the Islamic world generally that we seek no permanent bases on Iraqi soil. Repair the safety net here at home--homeland security, economic security, retirement security. End corruption and cronyism. Opportunity for all, not just a favored few. Protection of privacy rights. Sustainable environment. And a fair tax system to pay for it all, where the wealthy pay their fair share.

It is such a no-brainer. Unless you demonstrate leadership, why would anyone choose you as a leader? If you won't stand up to a weakened Bush and scandal-ridden GOP, how can we believe you would stand up against foreign foes? It is that simple.

[Kagro X]

More to come on Iraq from TNH later, but one of the pieces to this puzzle is the idea that Americans want to spend money rebuilding the Gulf Coast, not Iraq.

The ads are already in the can.

[KdmFromPhila]

If the media are already noticing how desparate bush is, you wonder if they will resent being used by the administration in their attempt to make a new image. They've had to put up with a lot of bullying over the last 5 years, so maybe they're ready to stop acting like the White House's public relations team.

[YK]

In addition to stronger leadership, it wouldn't hurt if the Democrats would mix in a little charisma/personality with all that competence. The American public may have decided that personality isn't a substitute for competence, but that doesn't mean they're willing to live without it entirely.

[lukery]

In other good news, Zogby wasnt going to ask the impeachment question again, but after an article in RawStory about it, it seems that we have forced zogby to change his mind. I'll have more about it early in the week hopefully. If you have any suggestions about which impeachment questions we should ask, let me know here.

Hopefully Bush can go be a miserable failure somewhere else.

[Miserable Failure]

I wouldn't say the democratic party is any more competent than the Republican one. One may argue many things, but this is extremely different changing times. The Cold War era is over. New turmoil is errupting and new economical and political landscapes are forming. Through this all, America has to adjust to meet the new competition from foreign cheaper workers (india, eastern europe), and we must find a way to successfully stop this new threat of extremist terrorism.

Maybe the democrats could have done better... but i doubt so... I highly do... I doubt if a Democrat was in office, the terrorist would have decided not to hit the WTC... I doubt Democratic leadership could stop Indians and Romanians from getting American jobs because they work for so cheap.

This hurricane just further wrecked our economy and life. All blame can not be put on the President or the party. It is not like he is working at every level of FEMA and it is not like a disaster like this has happened before.

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