Zogby Labors in Confusion

By DHinMI

John Zogby has a piece on today's WSJ opinion page (subscription only), and it shows the kind of gaff that explains why so many political professionals scoff at his reliability as a political pollster:

Two summers ago, I asked voters whether the AFL-CIO spoke for them when they went to the polls.  The answers produced a real surprise: Among unionized likely voters, just 27% said the AFL-CIO spoke for them all or most of the time.  This was lower than the 32% of unionized voters who said the NRA spoke for them!  In fact, nearly as many unionized workers (23%) said he Republicans spoke for them as said the AFL-CIO, while a higher percentage--35% believed that the Democrats spoke for them.

Without seening his exact questions, this may be a little unfair, but that's a ridiculous argument.  First of all, Zogby gives no indication as to the percentage of workers who are members of unions affiliated with the AFL-CIO actually understand that their union is--or until a couple weeks ago was--part of the AFL-CIO.  Besides, individual union members aren't members of the AFL-CIO, the members of the AFL-CIO are entire unions.  It's a fedeation.  If you ask a baggage handler at an airport if he's in the AFL-CIO, chances are good they'd say no, or at least would't be able to describe the AFL-CIO.  But if you ask him if he's in a union, you're very likely to hear all about the Machinsts. 

Another problem with this question, at least as described by Zogby, is that it's incredibly imprecise.  He's discussing "unionized likely voters" as if it also means "likely voter who's in a union affiliated with the AFL-CIO."  But what about the country's largest union, the National Education Association?  Except in a couple staes where they're jointly affiliated with the American Federation of Teachers, NEA members aren't members of an AFL-CIO union.  So why should it be shocking if they don't feel the AFL-CIO always speaks for them?

If you want poll data that gives you a particular result, I can probably get you that result by how I would write the question.  That's different, of course, from giving you accurate information, which, because of the vagaries of wording, can be remarkably difficult to get.  This is a great example of how one is likely to get bad information, or at best information to which you cannot attach any reliable meaning. 

Comments

[dj moonbat]

Baggage handlers are in the machinists' union?

[DHinMI]

With some airlines they are. I think the Teamsters and the Communications Workers of America alwo represent baggage handlers.

[emptypockets]

Please send this to WSJ as letter, or at least to Zogby. It's a clear fair point & I'd be interested in his response -- or at least interested in seeing it added to the dialog. (I'm working on the unlikely assumption that Zogby doesn't read TNH.)

[Mimikatz]

The Prospect (Tapped) has a piece this morning that exposes the flaws in this Zogby polling effort, which was paid for by an anti-union group.