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July 19, 2005


I have no doubts about Gonzales' ability to get GOP votes. But I really do think he's still holding him in pocket for later.

And I notice TradeSports has no love for our "Dancing Queen," Consuelo Callahan!

How's Orange Hat doing on TradeSports? (Stupid work Net Nanny won't let me check.)

The one thing I wonder is, do they want the WH counsel going before a Senate committee, when it's at least conceivable that indictments could come down right as he's testifying?

And I don't think they would have ginned up the Clement buzz if the nominee is male, even if Latino.

Having said that, the impulse for Bush to name his personal good bud must be enormously strong.

-- Rick Robinson

Rick: Not picking a woman is exactly the reason to gin up the Clement buzz. That way they can appear to have given serious consideration to a woman but at the last minute pick a guy, instead of it appearing that they never intended to replace the first woman on the SC with another woman.

He can't risk Gonzo now, not with the Plame slur/coverup investigation. He needs a safe Attorney General, and he can't pick his brother. Unless the person who becomes "acting" is really safe, I don't see how he picks Gonzo, no matter how much he wants it. Plus there's the torture stuff.

Someone at Kos suggested he would pick Cecilia M. Altonaga, a Cuban-American woman who Jeb is high on.

TradeSports now has Jones and Luttig way up, and Clement has lost everything she gained today (having been up some 30+ points).

You're gonna have to help me out on the lingo, Trap. Orange Hat?

Or(rin)ange Hat(ch). That's what my wife calls him, and I think it's adorable.

I don't think it's Gonzales, but if it is, I have said all along that there will be no Republican votes against him. The idea that Senate Republicans would oppose President Bush's pick because he's not conservative enough is just crazy.

I agree that the headfake makes sense if the point is to show that a woman was seriously considered. I don't think it makes sense for any other reason. If he nominates a wingnut now, we get to argue that he intentionally picked a divisive nominee when he could have sailed through with 99-0 Clement.

If the Dems loudly trumpet that point, and the "wag the dog" argument based on the timing, they will score a lot of points with the public, who deplore partisan bickering in general. However, the next time the Dems get out a loud, consistent message will be their first.

Ah! Hatch is up two points, having had very little movement all day. Gonzo is down 8 or so.

Jones now running away with it, with a 30+ point gain on the day, and no one else in double digits.

I was supposed to powerwash the deck today. When is the Bush administration going to save my marriage?

If it's not Gonzo, I like Luttig. That story about his family in court today is fishy . . .


Check out the language MSNBC attributes to Federalist Society "judicial selection guru" Leonard Leo, with respect to Clement:

But he warned that reporters should not “get too far out in front” in assuming that she would be the nominee.

Where have we seen that phrasing before?

John Roberts, a wingnut.

-- Rick Robinson

Rick. I think you're supposed the put BREAKING in front of that.


Funny. TradeSports had him as a late surger, overtaking Clement, Jones and Luttig by 7pm.

I'm sure a zellout like you would just let Roberts sail on through.

I'm leaning toward making it a fight and bloodying him, even if we don't have the votes to sustain a filibuster. But I don't know. I'm still pondering. But I know I'm not interested in letting him sail through just because the Rove thing is out there, because they guy could be on the court 35 years.

Ignore the nominee. Let the nomination hearings be about what it's like to be nominated to the Supreme Court by a president with no respect for the law.

50 years old and against Roe. As soon as the Rove thing heated up I knew that we were in for a bad pick.


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A market maker provides contract liquidity and the players
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Here are two tips that I have found to be extremely valuable
when trading in-running events:

1. Enter positions in-running and die with the result. This is
really just another way of finding overlays, but it's much
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2. Don't sell your contract early if you bought it pre-game and
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over the course of the season.

The exception would be if you are using a trading system with a
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Happy trading,


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