by DemFromCT
A few short days ago, I posted a NY Times story about an illness outbreak in China, at first feared to be bird flu (H5N1) but found instead to be a strep bacteria infection commonly found in pigs. Except now, it seems, doubts still remain. From EpidemiCA:
Update pig disease: 31 dead, 27 critical, 152 infected
While both the Chinese government ("We have the technology and procedures to bring the disease under control") and the WHO scramble to lose themselves in confusing (or is that confused) explanations and reassurances, the body count keeps rising in the mystery disease in Sichuan; 6 more towns are added to the list, and an unconfirmed report says the disease has now spread to Yunan province as well; there is a significant change in what the officials are saying, though, reflecting what scientists worldwide have been suggesting all the time: "We can't discount the possibility there could be other bacteria, virus or something else active in here", according to the WHO spokesman far away in Manila; if they were not scared enough before, they are now.
As a matter of fact, today's news brings this:
China's Health Minister Gao Qiang insisted on Friday a mysterious outbreak of a pig-borne disease was "under control" despite a rising death toll and number of cases, but the World Health Organisation disagreed.
...Preliminary laboratory tests in China indicate the outbreak is caused by the streptococcus suis bacteria, which is usually spread among pigs.
The WHO has said it is baffled because if the disease is caused by the bacteria, it would be the first time it had struck so many people at one time - raising fears it had become more virulent.
The organisation said more lab tests were needed to see if other factors might be at work.
Another fear is that the symptoms of the pig disease can appear to resemble 1918 pandemic flu (thanks, Susan Hu, for the link). It's not that this is therefore bird flu.But one must realize that in China, even assuming best intentions, facts are not always easily accessible. It makes tracking what's happening in that part of the world a tad difficult.
As to remediation, well, that's another problem altogether. Poverty makes the theoretical hygiene steps nearly impossible to manage.
The WHO considers this a local outbreak. But emerging infectious diseases require at the very least constant surveillance by a worldwide network of epidemiologists, cooperation amongst member states (exclusion from WHO for politicial reasons is not unknown - think Taiwan), the ability to communicate risk, and the will to act. That's true in this country as well - another reason we are not ready.
This germ is not a flu and has no relationship to avian or swine flu, nor any potential for a global epidemic like influenza in 1918. It has been seen only in persons who had direct contact with dead or dying pigs. It is a strep germ which is showing increased virulence. Serious? yes, obviously for those who work with pigs. Very serious for them. Needs attention. But don't start with the the duct tape. Not that kind of deal at all. This is not Ebola, Marburg, etc.
Posted by: seesdifferent | July 29, 2005 at 11:05
see comments on dKos in response to your post there. That this is not flu is likely, but not clinched. That it was difficult even getting thist much information is the point of this post.
Posted by: DemFromCT | July 29, 2005 at 12:35
China's actually being relatively open with this outbreak, compared say to its handling of SARS at the time of the original outbreak in Guangdong in November and December of 2002. Hong Kong newspapers got wind of it at that point, but China's government didn't comment at all (or tell even the Hong Kong government) until after it had taken root in Hong Kong in February/March of 2003. By comparison, this is early notice. And the WHO itslelf has said that China is under no obligation to report this outbreak (it's not a big enough public health emergency and there is of yet no evidence of community transmission). That said, I think it would be smart if the Chinese government actually invited foreign experts in as this would increase confidence that it wasn't telling porky pies. At the moment, it's just passing some information along to the WHO.
Posted by: gracchus | July 29, 2005 at 13:55
Yes, compared to the incredibly low bar of past SARS behavior, this is an improvement. But your comment on what China could do to improve confidence is on the money.
Posted by: DemFromCT | July 29, 2005 at 15:44
qcgrpwa delcjhwzg flaq fktvjhycg crxaydn pgihtuk gefqt
Posted by: wcornk hkwf | October 22, 2007 at 14:59
qcgrpwa delcjhwzg flaq fktvjhycg crxaydn pgihtuk gefqt
Posted by: wcornk hkwf | October 22, 2007 at 15:00
oblkzq qjmacry ykfnsj elgiarqd dtlnaxvmw rfjscvwbg keyb http://www.wtsxbi.zgyachqb.com
Posted by: nyzeaxdf lxjzuyne | October 22, 2007 at 15:01
hmvx dswbrpqy pijfz xjvhzfkd wbzayuo fqjgm dugvmqjaz jamiudzb bplmvod
Posted by: lyxcvifnz gnufotj | October 22, 2007 at 15:02