Zogby, Rasmussen Sez: What Bounce?

Hmmm...

President Bush’s televised address to the nation produced no noticeable bounce in his approval numbers, with his job approval rating slipping a point from a week ago, to 43%, in the latest Zogby International poll. And, in a sign of continuing polarization, more than two-in-five voters (42%) say they would favor impeachment proceedings if it is found the President misled the nation about his reasons for going to war with Iraq.

The Zogby America survey of 905 likely voters, conducted from June 27 through 29, 2005, has a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points.

Just one week ago, President Bush’s job approval stood at a previous low of 44%—but it has now slipped another point to 43%, despite a speech to the nation intended to build support for the Administration and the ongoing Iraq War effort. The Zogby America survey includes calls made both before and after the President’s address, and the results show no discernible “bump” in his job approval, with voter approval of his job performance at 45% in the final day of polling.

Where voters live has some impact on their perceptions. The President’s job rating remains relatively strong in the South, with 51% rating his performance favorably; in all other regions, those disapproving his performance are in the majority.

In a more significant sign of the weakness of the President’s numbers, more “Red State” voters—that is, voters living in the states that cast their ballots for the Bush-Cheney ticket in 2004—now rate his job performance unfavorably, with 50% holding a negative impression of the President’s handling of his duties, and 48% holding a favorable view. The President also gets negative marks from one-in-four (25%) Republicans—as well as 86% of Democrats and 58% of independents. (Bush nets favorable marks from 75% of Republicans, 13% of Democrats and 40% of independents.)

Other polls have more unfavs from idependents, but check out the less than 80% R support in that last line. That's one of the lowest R numbers (75%) I've seen anywhere.

And don't forget the Rasmussen tracking poll. This rolling phone survey has 1/3 of its takers after the speech, as of today. No bounce yet here.

Thursday June 30, 2005--Forty-eight  percent (48%) of American adults approve of the way George W. Bush  is performing his role as President. Fifty-one percent (51%)    disapprove of the President's performance.             

The President's Approval Rating is based upon telephone interviews conducted each night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Just over one-third of the interviews for today's update were conducted following the President's Tuesday night speech on Iraq.

To put this is perspective (ed. note: written permission from Scott Rasmussen to occasionally post premium data):

Bush  Fav Unfav
Today  48  51
Yest    46  53
6/28     48  50

Just 42% of Americans now believe that the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror. That's the lowest level of optimism ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports in a series of surveys conducted over the past two years.

I expected a mini-bounce of 2-3 points through July 4. So far, nada, but I still think it will be after Monday that we get the big picture.

Comments

[Mimikatz]

I also liked this part from the Zogby article:

"The same survey finds that a 55% majority of voters believe the two parties are too focused on their respective bases, and as a result, compromise—and results—have become impossible in Washington. Just 36% in the poll rejected that notion, saying the parties’ organization provides as broad a base as possible, and that compromise is occurring.

A follow-up question found that seven-in-ten (70%) voters believe the parties should be broad-based, and should pursue compromise—while less than one-in-four (23%) favored putting base issues first, even if it means nothing is accomplished."

Not a lot of hard-core R base voters there, considering that 23% is out of all voters.

[DemFromCT]

moderates are out there somewhere. And big tents sell. Too bad they don't vote in primaries.

[Steve]

You don't have to be a moderate, you just have to talk a good game. You can still find millions of people who think Bush is "a uniter, not a divider." Lots of people think he is a decent guy who is above all this partisan bickering, even to this day. Of course, these numbers are dropping, but don't assume that every remaining Bush supporter is a red-meat conservative.

Also, consider why McCain is currently crushing everyone in 2008 polling. It's not because he's a moderate - he's a complete hawk on foreign policy, and he's far from a social liberal - but he gives the illusion of moderation by talking a good game, and by bucking the Republican party line on a few strategic issues like the gay marriage amendment. But that's not the issue - people like McCain because they don't like partisan bickering, and they think he might be the guy to bring the two sides together. Compare Hillary, who is closer to the center than McCain, but probably isn't seen as very likely to make peace between the two sides.

[DemFromCT]

Steve, you're talking politician, I'm talking voter. our points are not incompatible, except that McCain hasn't won any primaries. He is despised by the religious right... hated... loathed.

[RonK, Seattle]

Splash of cold water -- despite W's woeful performance, Democrats are not that frickin' popular, and a strong plurality favors a more conservative Supreme Court.

Don't start thinking we can win the big game without making any of the right moves.

[Crab Nebula]

RonK, to change voter perception about the D uberMessage will take one of two things: 1) a multi year effort, likely not ready to bear fruit for '08, to build message infrastructure which, through its status/influence, can carry enough electeds along to create a semblance of message discipline in congress, or 2) a very gifted messenger as a candidate in '08, which leapfrogs the lack of 1.)

Otherwise, we'll be running tactical campaigns again in 06 and 08. Which isn't necessarily that bad, because the dynamics may be tilting our way like not seen in a long time. But the complaining is unfounded, because the cure isn't realistically available in the short term. But you're right, it's definitely a problem.

[RonK, Seattle]

Crab Nebula -- I'm afraid do not share your perspective, at all.

In my view, the donkey's disability is not about message, or message infrastructure, or strategic vs tactical focus, or talent vs organization.

Our prime disabiity is our disinterest in coming to terms with what it takes to succeed, and doing it.

Like typical fad dieters, Democrats are not committed to favorable outcomes. They are interested in the process insofar as it furnishes them with personal entertainment, involvement and identity, and as it avoids imposing too many hard decisions or too distasteful a regimen, and as it distracts them from fundamentals like "calories in minus calories out".

We are 60 years (not 30) behind the opposition, but we could make radical surges at any time ... if we were interested.

[Ben P]

Ron - thats one way of reading the supreme court numbers. I could read those same numbers as saying a strong majority doesn't want a more a conservative supreme court - 55% to 41% against. Basically, what we have in this country is anti-right wing majority. The Democrats challenge is to turn that to their advantage. You are right to point out that they haven't done that yet. But I don't think the task is easy. Still, 2006 could well be a good year for the Dems, by default, as 1998 was.

[Ben P]

Additionally, if the Supreme Court Bush has a hand in creating overturns Roe vs. Wade, those numbers WILL change. Currently a large majority of the country - 2 to 1 - support the Roe decision.

Thats to say nothing of something like Griswold vs. Connecticut, which could be on the table too if a big enough pair of wingnuts get through to replace O'Connor and Rehnquist.

Ben P