The Next Hurrah

Zogby, Rasmussen Sez: What Bounce?

Hmmm...

President Bush’s televised address to the nation produced no noticeable bounce in his approval numbers, with his job approval rating slipping a point from a week ago, to 43%, in the latest Zogby International poll. And, in a sign of continuing polarization, more than two-in-five voters (42%) say they would favor impeachment proceedings if it is found the President misled the nation about his reasons for going to war with Iraq.

The Zogby America survey of 905 likely voters, conducted from June 27 through 29, 2005, has a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points.

Just one week ago, President Bush’s job approval stood at a previous low of 44%—but it has now slipped another point to 43%, despite a speech to the nation intended to build support for the Administration and the ongoing Iraq War effort. The Zogby America survey includes calls made both before and after the President’s address, and the results show no discernible “bump” in his job approval, with voter approval of his job performance at 45% in the final day of polling.

Where voters live has some impact on their perceptions. The President’s job rating remains relatively strong in the South, with 51% rating his performance favorably; in all other regions, those disapproving his performance are in the majority.

In a more significant sign of the weakness of the President’s numbers, more “Red State” voters—that is, voters living in the states that cast their ballots for the Bush-Cheney ticket in 2004—now rate his job performance unfavorably, with 50% holding a negative impression of the President’s handling of his duties, and 48% holding a favorable view. The President also gets negative marks from one-in-four (25%) Republicans—as well as 86% of Democrats and 58% of independents. (Bush nets favorable marks from 75% of Republicans, 13% of Democrats and 40% of independents.)

Other polls have more unfavs from idependents, but check out the less than 80% R support in that last line. That's one of the lowest R numbers (75%) I've seen anywhere.

And don't forget the Rasmussen tracking poll. This rolling phone survey has 1/3 of its takers after the speech, as of today. No bounce yet here.

The Next Harrumph - a TNH Open Thread

by RonK, Seattle

Credit where credit is due. Without W's coalitional embrace of the preceding regime, secular progressives in Spain could not have racked up the parliamentary margins they needed to sustain the vote for gay marriage.

Promising "Bulgaria Out of Iraq", the party formerly known as "Communist" won a striking parliamentary victory. The Coalition of the Willing re-aligns around a new plan: "Withdraw Now, Avoid the Rush".

On the flip side, W has demonstrated wonder-working power for capitalism in China!

Things to fear until pandemic gets here: Tests confirm mad cow in an animal born near near Waco TX, while (so MSNBC sez) a less-appreciated silent killer -- the falling coconut -- takes out 150 beachgoers annually.

Statist SCOTUS? From medical marijuana to eminent domain to journalistic privilege, it's a big government's world - you're just living in it.

Bullshark! Shark attacks give the networks a pretext to cut away from a contentious Rumsfeld presser. Administration officials hope to ice the offending bullshark, and truck it to Washington to receive a Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Bullsnark! The Kerry campaign spent more on political consultant Bob Shrum than on Hispanic media. NewDonkey notes:

... some might argue that Kerry would be president today if Shrum's fees had been stuffed in a paper bag and tossed into the Potomac River, but there's no question more targeted Hispanic media would have been helpful as well.

Be careful what you wish for. In our thirst for details of the recent Massachusetts beer truck windfall, we stumbled on this gem: a North Texas woman killed by a beer truck was legally drunk at the time ... as was the beer truck driver. Have a safe and happy holday, everyone!

Iraq, Iraq, Iraq... Afghanistan

by DemFromCT

Armando features a good quote from Bob Herbert:

The incompetence at the highest levels of government in Washington has undermined the U.S. troops who have fought honorably and bravely in Iraq, which is why the troops are now stuck in a murderous quagmire. If a Democratic administration had conducted a war this incompetently, the Republicans in Congress would be dusting off their impeachment manuals.

The entire Republican strategery seems to be to get us so screwed in Iraq that there's no way out, and then call Democrats appeasers for trying. And hope that no matter how bad the situation, John Kerry Democrats are worse. Given that it's a re-run of the 2004 campaign, Karl and George trotted out the 9/11 meme (his version of SBVT on the American people) right on cue. The WH, I heard reported on cable, was shocked to find gambling in this casino Democrats upset about 9/11 language. I suppose they thought Dems would just roll over and play dead, while still fundamentally misunderstanding what 9/11 means.

2004 was not an election to be king. Europeans wanted those responsible brought to justice. But Bush was hired to root out Al Queda, catch bin Laden and make sure those responsible were taught that if they kill Americans, they were dead meat. Not subtle, but then Americans aren't known for doing nuance well.

And the result? Quagmire in Iraq and the forgotten war in Afghanistan unfinished. That's no way to prove Herbert wrong.

So what now? The NY Times says:

No one wants a disaster in Iraq, and Mr. Bush's critics can put aside, at least temporarily, their anger at the administration for its hubris, its terrible planning and its inept conduct of the war in return for a frank discussion of where to go from here. The president, who is going to be in office for another three and a half years, cannot continue to obsess about self-justification and the need to color Iraq with the memory of 9/11. The nation does not want it and cannot afford it.

Short Takes. Er. Hurrahpertif. Um. Quick Bites.

by emptywheel

So let's see what the rest of the world was doing while some of you were watching a rerun of "Bush Levels with America."

Perhaps appropriately, given Bush's rerun last night, New York City officials have announced they've redesigned Freedom. Freedom sounds like a fortress wrapped in filigree:

The new design for the 82-story signature building at the World Trade Center site in Lower Manhattan calls for an almost impermeable and impregnable 200-foot concrete and steel pedestal, clad in ornamental metalwork...

And guess what? When you redesign Freedom it ends up adding a year or two to construction times. Don't expect Freedom to be done until 2010, if construction stays on schedule.

Meanwhile, back at the GWOT, it seems that the Orange Alert announced at Christmas of 2003--the one where we cancelled all the flights of our allies' main airlines? Well, it was a bogus alert, based on someone seeing ghosts in Al-Jazeera's newscrawl.

CIA analysts mistakenly thought they'd discovered a mother lode of secret al-Qaida messages. They thought they had found secret messages on Al-Jazeera, the Arabic-language television news channel, hidden in the moving text at the bottom of the screen, known as the "crawl," where news headlines are summarized.

Perhaps in response to hysteria such as this, the National Academy of Science has decided to go ahead and publish their controversial study of the vulnerability of our milk supply to bioterrorism.

federal officials felt the material had enough potential for misuse to warrant a last-minute effort to halt publication. That effort, which delayed the report's release by a month but ultimately did not keep it from becoming public, proved to be as contentious as the publication itself. It has assured the report's place in the scientific canon as one of the first test cases of how to balance scientific freedom and national security in the post-Sept. 11 era.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, they spent nine hours yesterday reenacting the Battle of Trafalgar in celebration of its bicentennial. Only this Battle of Trafalgar was the peace-loving EU kind of battle. The fleet included ships from 35 nations (more than are left in the Coalition of the Willing!) and "the French flagship, the vast nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, played Rule Britannia from its loudspeaker."

And, if it's not already obvious, we're still trying to come up with a title for our daily open thread. We had some interesting suggestions yesterday--got anything to add?

Launch Of The Flu Wiki

(Note: Bush spoke. Yeah, I saw it. Popularity bump for a week with July 4 coming. Advice: Reassess July 5th.)

But now for a thank you. The Flu Wiki, launched by Just a Bump in the Beltway, The Next Hurrah and Effect Measure blogs, has been a modest success. Each of two days has averaged nearly 1500 visits and over 7500 page views, with an average 20 minutes per visitor! I want to thank everyone involved, including the blogs that kindly hosted our announcement.

For something different, I thought I'd post a couple of reviews of the site, which at this point is more of a framework than a realized vision.

Here's an excerpt from Confined Space:

Despite their reputation, however, some bloggers actually light a candle instead of spending all of their time just cursing the darkness. So, Just a Bump in the Beltway, The Next Hurrah and Effect Measure blogs have launched a new experiment in collaborative problem solving in public health, The Flu Wiki.

They obviously meant bloggers in the abstract, certainly not little ol' me, right? Well, as Kagro X always says, we're activists. So do something besides yell at the TV.

Stonewall: Our past and our future

Today is the 36th anniversary of the Stonewall Riots. Due to some combination of sweltering summer temperatures, anger at constant raids and abuse by the authorities, and possibly Judy Garland's death, gay men, lesbians, and transvestites began fighting back against the local police. Rock-throwing and obscenities quickly turned into a small-scale riot, and a legend was born.

Many will tell you that the Stonewall Riot was pretty meaningless in the battle for gay rights. Organizations like Mattachine Society and Daughters of Billitis had been quietly working for years on changing minds and hearts (Del Lyon and Phyllis Martin, who helped found Daughters of Billitis, were the first gay couple married in San Francisco last February), and they played a big part in getting various psychiatric organizations to take homosexuality off the books as mental illness.

Stonewall was a symbolic victory. Something to look back on as a life-changing, nation-shifting moment. Something that builds and builds in the memory and can be referenced whether or not you were at the event or know the full details of the event. Aside from a few high-profile marches on Washington (and some people are trying to plan another, which just seems like a waste of money to me), the gay community's most symbolic moments have often happened by accident, by a twist of fate and timing.

The assassination of Harvey Milk and Mayor George Moscone. The Supreme Court overturning sodomy laws. Gavin Newsom marrying gay couples in San Francisco.

Most of the flashpoints of the gay community, whether in our own mind or the public mind, seem to be tragedy and horror. Matthew Shephard's murder. Harvey Milk. AIDS. Shame. Guilt. Pain.

The gay community, as far as I'm concerned, will not progress until we have true leaders. We have some people who do very hard work, but we have no Martin Luther Kings or Gloria Steinems. I think part of this is due to infighting, which stems from shame. From our first moments on this planet we sense that homosexuality is something sick, perverse, and dirty. The media leers at us. Major politicians plot our destruction for partisan gain. Other politicians tolerate us, take our money, pat us on the head, and then shove us off a cliff as soon as they need a scapegoat for why they lost yet another election. There is very little genuine acceptance. And that makes many of us turn against each other. You have seemingly dozens of little classifications and subcultures based on everything from age to how "butch" you are.  It's very hard to remember who the real enemy is when you feel so alienated in your own community. And that class warfare, the idea that if you are gay you should live in a big blue city or act a certain way or not enjoy certain things or wear the right outfits or take certain party drugs, is a big reason why gays are so unable to unite. So many of us berate ourselves for not living up to the standards set not only by straight society but even those in the gay community who always expect more. We are unable to mobilize, to band together. We take any little glimmer of support from straight people and we cower in fear at the idea of ever stepping out of place. We allow people to blame us for every ill in the world, all because we want to have equal rights, all because we want to be equal to everyone else. We are supposed to be walking laugh tracks. The rotten fruit of society. When we try to be "normal", straight America lashes out, and we blame ourselves for ever making the effort. It's a vicious cycle, as most recently evidenced in the 2004 elections.

That's why Stonewall is so important. Many of the people at Stonewall were living in shadows. They were considered outcasts and freaks even by many in the gay community. But they were sick of being beaten, and threatened, and spit on. They fought back because they had no choice. They were tired of staying in their place.

Gays today have far more rights yet we are far more endangered of losing those rights, because so many of us take them for granted. We think that because we might be able to invite our partner to a company picnic or because our relatives don't openly call us names or because there are a few "gay" shows on TV, things have improved. That leads to complacency. We just sit in our homes or in bars or clubs wanting to be left alone with the few rights we have, even though those rights are being whittled away one by one, until we are left with nothing but judgment, persecution, and oblivion.

We don't need to show straight America lots of violence. We can't expect to push and push on equal marriage rights and assume America will go along. But Stonewall serves as a lesson that we need to stand up for ourselves, and most of all, find ourselves worthy and important. We need to stop waiting and waiting for the right words and the right deeds to force America to love us when all of America will never love us. Many straight Americans do support us, but we are so ready to believe the media hype and the political spin that America hates gays and is ashamed of gays. We do this because it's easier to play the martyr and feel sorry for ourselves and say that gay rights are dead and we're all heading to the death camps. That doesn't involve taking a risk. That doesn't involve working with people we may have issues with. That doesn't involve accepting ourselves, flaws and all.

Of all the Stonewall lessons, the key lesson is that local outcry can become a global rallying cry. You don't have to join Human Rights Campaign or give money to various pandering politicians to make a difference in how America views the gay community. You have to join organizations in your own city, your own state. You have to make new friends and take risks and come out to people, if it is safe to do so. You have to change minds and hearts one at a time. Throwing rocks may not be the answer today, but fucking black tie dinners aren't a big help either.

Find the stone wall inside yourself, and shatter it to pieces. Take a good look at everything the gay community has earned and how close we are to losing all that so many of us have died for. Stop asking yourself what you can do to make some generic Joe Sixpack Bigot stop hating you. Stop hating yourself. Work together. We've already made tremendous progress. There was a time when many straight people, even progressives, would not work with the gay community. There was a time when gay men could not deal with lesbians, when gays could not deal with transvestites, and on and on. That's changed dramatically, but it's only a start. We need to heal ourselves and we need to work together to help change America. We can't just stay quiet and wait for any political party to help us. We have to make politicians support us, if we can, because otherwise they will vote against us and blame us for their failures time and time again.

Most of all please remember the many gay men and women, and our straight allies, who have died since Stonewall. We have lost so many voices and faces and lives, and I think that's another reason the gay community has no real leader. Hopefully someday that will change, if we make it change.

OK, lecture over. Have a nice night. 

 

Short Takes: Your TNH Open Thread

Let's see . . . what's fun today?

Well, Grover Norquist calling John McCain "the nutjob from Arizona" -- and then apologizing, saying "I meant to say gun-grabbing, tax-increasing Bolshevik" -- is pretty funny.  Say what you will about Norquist (I'd say that he's in the running for the title of "single most reprehensible person in American public life"), but he's always good for a quote.  But he's not really a comic figure -- he's massively influential.  And statements like this illustrate why McCain has a steep hill to climb if he wants the poisoned chalice of a GOP nomination in '08.

The Carpenters Union has joined the "Change to Win" faction of labor unions displeased with the current AFL-CIO leadership.  Like its companions in the dissident group, the Carpenters claim that they're somehow more committed to organizing than other unions, calling the Change to Win group "the most dynamic unions in the country."  But as an astute commenter on the Tasini post linked above notes, most of CTW unions -- including the Carpenters -- have lost members over the past 4 years.  "The [UFCW] lost 42,000, the hotel workers 7,402, UNITE 23,400, and the Teamsters 74,000. These aren’t disastrous losses, but neither do they recommend any of the unions involved as organizing geniuses. Even the Carpenters union, which condemned the AFL-CIO for lack of organizing before abandoning the federation four years ago, lost 10,752 members."    The Laborers, another CTW union, are down roughly 125,000 members since 2000, according to LM-2 forms on record with the DoL.  By contrast -- of the Carpenters' and Laborers' siblings in the "basic trades" who are not part of the CTW: the Ironworkers have lost 3,000 members in the past 4 years and the Roofers have lost 500, while the OPCMIA and the Bricklayers have grown by small numbers, and the Painters have gained 26,000 members.

TNH needs a better name for this feature than "Short Takes."  "Short Takes" is as generic an open thread title as "Open Thread."  Your suggestions, and your other thoughts, below.

Bush, Nixon, Watergate and the DSM

by DemFromCT

I hate to repeat myself, but since history is repeating itself, I don't feel too guilty. In anticipation of Bush's 'stay the course, Democracy is hard work' speech tonight, I give you Richard M Nixon's "pitiful giant" speech from April 30, 1970:

My fellow Americans, we live in an age of anarchy, both abroad and at home. We see mindless attacks on all the great institutions which have been created by free civilizations in the last 500 years. Even here in the United States, great universities are being systematically destroyed. Small nations all over the world find themselves under attack from within and from without.

If, when the chips are down, the world's most powerful nation, the United States of America, acts like a pitiful, helpless giant, the forces of totalitarianism and anarchy will threaten free nations and free institutions throughout the world.

It is not our power but our will and character that is being tested tonight. The question all Americans must ask and answer tonight is this: Does the richest and strongest nation in the history of the world have the character to meet a direct challenge by a group which rejects every effort to win a just peace, ignores our warning, tramples on solemn agreements, violates the neutrality of an unarmed people, and uses our prisoners as hostages?

If we fail to meet this challenge, all other nations will be on notice that despite its overwhelming power the United States, when a real crisis comes, will be found wanting.

Well, at least Nixon had the decency in that speech to acknowledge that the American people didn't want to stay there, and that this was a way to end the war. No such concession from Bush tonight.

Speaking of Nixon, two articles of interest on Watergate the DSM: The WSJ (subscription) writes up the Daily Kos activists who started DowningStreetMemo.com, and adds:

Reporters (and Bloggers) Should be Shielded Against Revealing Sources

By Meteor Blades

Imagine for a moment that Sunday Times reporter Michael Smith was on the payroll of an American newspaper. Imagine that the exposer of the Downing Street minutes had met someone for a drink at an out-of-the-way bar in D.C. Imagine that the someone was a White House insider who had slipped Smith the minutes from a secret June 2001 meeting. Imagine that those minutes contained proof that George Bush, Dick Cheney, Condoleeza Rice, Donald Rumsfeld and others had made plans to take out Saddam Hussein just as soon as they could find an excuse for doing so.

Now imagine that a federal prosecutor was demanding that Smith surrender to a grand jury the identity of the person who illegally gave him classified documents relating to national security, and that the federal courts agreed that Smith had no First Amendment or other grounds upon which to withhold the source’s identity. And imagine that if he continued to do so, he would face jail or fines or both.

Would there be as gleeful a response in left blogworld as there was Monday when the Supreme Court chose to let the DC Appeals Court’s ruling stand in the contempt case of Judith Miller and Matt Cooper? Would so many liberals be arguing that reporters should have no “special rights” to shield the identities of their sources? Or that any reporter who accepts classified documents and refuses to reveal their source is an accomplice to treason, particularly when American soldiers are dying in an overseas war?

Short Takes: A TNH Open Thread

Ever get the feeling that the neocons wanted to refight Vietnam so they opted for Iraq? That way they could prove we could have won the first time.

Instead, they are going to lose again. Even if  (Big If) things settle down someday, and we figure out how to leave gracefully, the PNAC plan is a disaster. And the thing is, the country knows it.

As President Bush prepares to address the nation on Iraq tonight, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds most Americans do not believe the administration's claims that impressive gains are being made against the insurgency, but a clear majority is willing to keep U.S. forces there for an extended time to stabilize the country.

The survey found that only one in eight Americans currently favor an immediate pullout of U.S. forces, while a solid majority continues to agree with Bush that the United States must remain in Iraq until civil order is restored -- a goal that most of those surveyed acknowledge is, at best, several years away.

According to Froomkin:

Among the other disconnects haunting the president: Polls show Americans increasingly are opposed to the war, think it was a mistake in the first place, want to bring American troops home, and believe Bush deliberately misled the public about Iraq's WMD.

But it seems unlikely that Bush will acknowledge any of that tomorrow night. "I think we have a clear strategy that we have outlined," press secretary Scott McClellan said on Friday. "And he will talk in a very specific way about the way forward to succeeding and implementing that strategy."

The return of McNamara? McGeorge Bundy? Nixon? Yeesh. This is an open thread.