Harry Reid: "The Nuclear Option is History"

By DHinMI

From First Read, a teaser from an upcoming Rolling Stone interview with Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid:

Also in the interview, Reid argues that Republicans won’t pull the so-called nuclear trigger if the Democrats end up filibustering one of Bush’s judicial nominees. “They’re saying [they might] to cover themselves. The nuclear option is history. Listen: The Republicans who signed that agreement, we should put up a statue to them someplace. That was a brave thing they did.”

And he says this about Bill Frist: “I like him, but he hasn’t been in government very long. He’s a doctor, and doctors have a little different outlook on life. Being a senator is about the art of compromise… And if anyone feels that compromising is unethical, or immoral, then they should get in some other business - because that’s what we do.”

One of the problems with understanding legislation maneuverings is that what's said to the public is often complete BS, and both sides are complicit in the deception.  On some issues, a legislative caucus may discover that some portion of its partisan and ideological base may reject any compromise, and will declare their position publicly.  At the same time, other factions of the caucus' supporting coalition may insist on compromise, but may not require public recognition that they got what they wanted.  That may be exactly what happened with the Nuclear Option.  The fundies and the White House may have been insisting that Frist and the Republicans not compromise on the Nuclear Option.  However, it's likely that the main business lobbies--who were strangely silent on the whole Nuclear Option kerfuffle--were insisting the exact opposite.  Thus, there's a good chance that it really was Trent Lott who closed the deal with the gang of 14. 

Through his tenure leading both a majority and a minority, Lott knows the importance of making a deal.  Many of the deals he made since 1996 involved the business lobby, so they probably knew he was more receptive to their concerns and open to their urgings than Frist, who's never demonstrated the ability to compromise and declare it a victory. Therefore, it's quite possible the following occurred:

• The business lobby, primarily the US Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable, went to Trent Lott and asked him to be their emissary to Republican Senators, thus cutting Frist out of the loop.
• Lott conveyed the business lobby's opposition to triggering the Nuclear Option.
• While Lott worked the Republicans, the business community worked the Democrats, either through Reid or someone else, keeping them informed of their progress and urging the Dems to not escalate the conflict, thus prompting a premature vote.
• Lott convinced the gang of 14 that the business community would quietly welcome a compromise and would oppose any fundie attempt to punish wayward Republicans like Graham or DeWine. 
• Frist finally figured out what Reid knew all along, that if the Republicans went nuclear on the Democrats, that the nuclear winter would ruin the Senate Republicans' relationship with the business lobby.  And yet again, the Republicans sold out their fundie base while serving the wishes of their business patrons. 

If this scenario or something similar explains the backroom machinations that prevented the launch of the Nuclear Option, then Reid is almost certainly correct, the Nuclear Option is history.  The business lobby didn't want a Senate unable to conduct business, and Reid's great achievement was holding the Democrats together and thus maintain that credible threat of obstruction. Furthermore, Reid's a wheeler-dealer, and he knows how to declare victory without exposing the machinations behind the deal, so the business lobby didn't worry about their machinations being exposed by the Democrats.  Frist is not a wheeler-dealer, but an absolutist who thought he could get the presidential nomination by giving the radical religious right everything it wants.  Frist's problem was that he didn't understand the real nature of the Republican coalition, with requires one to only promise to give the radical religious right everything it wants, but to make sure that whatever the business lobby wants, the business lobby gets.  At least seven Republicans were willing to publicly act on that principle.

Comments

[Kagro X]

Hey, here's a headline for you: Senate filibuster compromise was Lott's idea, not McCain's.

WASHINGTON — Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona got much of the credit this week for a deal that ended a bitter partisan debate in the Senate. But the outlines of the deal were really Sen. Trent Lott's idea, according to a spokesman for another senator who helped sell the deal.

And here's a throwaway line that adds nothing to the story, but which was necessary in order to reset TypePad's crazy formatting glitch that would otherwise have blockquoted every comment hereafter. Enjoy!

[Mimikatz]

Makes sense. Frist is REALLY a bozo, isn't he?

But I'm not thrilled the Dems are equally in the pocket of Big Business.

[DHinMI]

I don't know that it means they're in the pocket of big business. It's more like letting them know that on this issue they're tactical allies, so the Dems don't inadvertantly muck up whatever deals they're cooking up with the Repubs.

I read somewhere this morning that the contributions of business pacs were around 2-1 in favor of the Repubs in 2004, and I'll bet most of those donations to Dems went to entrenched or safe incumbents, and not viable challengers or the party and caucus committees.

[Crab Nebula]

Great piece. Trent Lott, before his public whupping, used to want to run for President. If it weren't for some stupid tongue flapping, he'd be so well-positioned to corral business and religious support for '08.

[RonK, Seattle]

Every senator has home-state business constituents, and every one of 'em needs something nipped or tucked or funded in every session.

That has to be one of the things Reid was counting on with his counterthreats. What was the true balance of high-minded institutionalist motivation versus "business as usual" pressure? If Robert Caro lives to 125, maybe we'll find out!

[DemFromCT]

Know what's best about this piece?

WASHINGTON - If Bill Frist's performance as Senate majority leader the last few weeks is any indication, he would have trouble managing a two-car funeral let alone the vast U.S. government, which apparently is his ultimate goal. Without being too hard on the Tennessee surgeon who President Bush handpicked for his current assignment, it is reasonable to suggest that his skill in the operating theater has not found its way into the political arena.

Frist's ineptness in the struggle over the president's stalled judicial nominees and his non participation in a "compromise" that at least partially cleared the pipeline may have stemmed somewhat from the fact that he is a lame duck leader who has indicated he will not run for reelection two years from now. In political terms, he lacks the clout to punish mavericks.

But a much larger factor in Frist's failure to completely wipe out Democrat opposition to the conservative judicial nominees through the filibuster-ending "nuclear option" probably was the president's own stubbornness in the matter, his refusal to give the beleaguered majority leader the help he needed. Bush showed no inclination to compromise nor apparently did he use his power of personal persuasion on concerned moderates in his own party.

The entire bumbling exercise, exacerbated by the evangelical zeal of the conservatives, points up once again just how difficult it is to reach the White House when one starts from the floor of the U.S. Senate. John F. Kennedy was the only one to make it in the 20th century and that was because he practically ignored the Senate for the four years previous to his election, missing roll call after roll call while his chief opponent for the 1960 Democrat nomination, Lyndon Johnson, was hamstrung by his majority leader duties.

Where it's from.

[Meteor Blades]

My original take that the compromise was not a good thing sure is getting a beating. More proof that when it comes to congressional political strategy, I should keep my big mouth shut.

[RonK, Seattle]

MB -- Jury's still out as far as I'm concerned. But ...

FRIST -> JOIST -> JOUST -> ROUST -> ROAST -> TOAST

... rings true in any reasonable variation.

[DrSMHoorgr]

Look at this!
[url=http://shmoorge.tripod.com/medifast]Medifast. [/url]Medifast.