Yin And Yang

by DemFromCT

He may be a lame duck, but he still rules the roost.

President Bush dismissed yesterday suggestions that his influence is waning less than six months into his second term, blaming partisanship and timidity in Congress for the lack of action on his plans to bring change to the United Nations, restructure Social Security and enact a new energy policy this year.

"I don't worry about anything here in Washington, D.C.," Bush said during a news conference in the White House's Rose Garden. "I feel comfortable in my role as the president, and my role . . . is to push for reform." With Democrats and Republicans alike questioning the clout of a president whose approval ratings have sunk to new lows, Bush said it is Congress that must prove it is "capable of getting anything done."

While stem cells and the other contentious issues to come, including CAFTA, Bolton and Social Security will continue to eat away at Bush's mojo, Democrats are a ways away from reestablishing themselves as the majority party. Brownstein writes about the difficulty of getting blue senators in red states (if the election were held today, which it's not).

Whatever happens in those races, the Democrats' ability to win Republican-held Senate seats next year in red states such as Montana, Tennessee and Missouri — and to defend their seats in red states such as Nebraska, Florida and North Dakota — may reveal more about their long-term prospects of regaining a Senate majority.

Democratic pollster Geoff Garin noted that in the last two elections, Democrats have come close to taking the White House, even though they've lost more states than they've won. That's because the high-population states they did win — such as New York and California — have large numbers of electoral college votes. But, regardless of population, each state has two Senate seats, so Democrats must compete on a broader map to realistically contend for a Senate majority.

"You can cobble together a viable electoral college strategy with a minority of states, but you simply can't cobble together a Senate majority that way," Garin said.

At the same time, TAPPED covers a Third Way poll purporting to show Dems need more votes from white middle class voters:

Finding #1: White middle income voters (who constitute three-quarters of the middle class and one-third of the entire electorate), delivered landslide margins to Republicans. The economic tipping point – the income level at which whites were more likely to vote Republican than Democrat – was $23,700, not far above the poverty level.

George W. Bush defeated John Kerry by 22-points among middle class whites with household incomes between $30,000 and $75,000.

House Republicans won middle class whites by 19-points.

There is no difference in the preferences of white middle class and white wealthy class voters.

Bush won whites with over $75,000 in household income by 23-points, a difference of 1-point over the white middle class.

House Republicans won whites with over $75,000 in household income by 22-points, a difference of 3-points over the white middle class.

The economic tipping point -- the household income level at which whites were more likely to vote for Republicans than Democrats -- was $23,700. The tipping point is only $5,000 above the poverty line for a family of four.

Ah, but the election is not today, nor will Bush and Congress hold up well if he keeps refusing to compromise on things the American people want. The national security impetus is fading, and Iraq will not be  the same in 2006 as it is now. My bet is that the GOP will have difficulty playing the national security card again; that's what happens when you lie to the American people about going to war and get caught at it.

No matter what folks tell the pollsters, that's something that is not easily forgiven. And that's assuming the economy is stable, which is another thing, altogether. So when Congress is home, it's not tough to guess what their constituents are talking about, and it's not filibusters.

Comments

[RonK, Seattle]

Those Third Way results are extremely disturbing, if true ... but not entirely surprising. For decades, Democratic activists have been giving mainstream voters the finger. Sometimes IN-YOUR-FACE, sometimes furtively over the shoulder in passing, but giving them the finger.

All the while, the Reagan's and Limbaugh's and W's have been there with an arm around the shoulder: "What's bugging you today, bunky?".

And when people fall for this approach, it only confirms our belief in their innate moral and intellectual inferiority. Fuck you, Middle America!

[DemFromCT]

In another article, Brownstein suggests the filibuster compromise was acceptable to Dems because the warring factions (get more moderates vs go after the base) were both okay with it. Repubs/conservatives were not because it challenged conservative hegemony.

I don't see the two Dem factions as incompatible. But we lost too many of the swing voters in 2004 (if not earlier), and that lost us the election even though we got many of the indies and Dems.

This is important data, even if only partially true. It should be matched with Pew for analytsis.

[Meteor Blades]

...the income level at which whites were more likely to vote Republican than Democrat – was $23,700 ...

Yikes. As my grandpa used to say, lots of poor people vote Republican because they think that someday they'll be rich and the Democrats will tax it all away from them.

You would think that they could at least wait until they were a little closer to the level at where their taxes really will be higher before casting ballots for the Republicans. But, of course, it's probably more a matter of what RonK points to - middle-finger snobbery - than economics that has driven so many white "middle class" people into the claws of the GOP.

[janinsanfran]

Findings like these confirm the understanding of those of us who think the essense of current conservative power derives from harnassing (largely covert) white anxiety about the nation's shift to becoming a majority minority country. Middle class whites, especially males, think the Dems want to care for our core constituency at their expense. On some level, they are right, because if we want to imagine how electorally bankrupt the Democratic Party is, just think how screwed we'd be if voters of color stayed home.

This is very easy to see here in California; the Dems have not won the white male vote since about 1988. We've passed the demographic tipping point (about 1998) and are learning to live on the other side. Dianne Feinstein is an huge winner because she gets the regular Dem vote from communities of color, the white Dem remnant -- AND grabs a share of white women who male Dems don't reach. Run of the mill Dems win by putting together the white remnant and a large POC vote. And that is the only way we do it statewide.

National Democratic party leadership with vision is going to have to speak to the racial realities if they don't want this simply to become worse as more of the country approaches the demographic tipping point. (Interestingly, the next state up is Texas -??) I actually think many US whites are less personally prejudiced than ever before, but they are still ready to operate out of white fear of being swamped when they cast a ballot. To get through this transition, we are going to need brave political leadership.

[DemFromCT]

Note janinsanfran's comment and the polling data. Now in 30 words or less, lay out a reasoable immigration policy, and predict whether it helps or hurts with the demographic in question.

[RonK, Seattle]

Maybe the sun will come out from behind that cloud tomorrow, and Ruy Teixeira will chew the sharp corners off this report for us.

Or maybe, contra R.T.'s "emerging majority" thesis, today's minorities will identify more Republican as they go mainstream and move to redder states/counties/precincts.

[Sam]

Love how Bush is still "pushing for reform" nearly five years into his presidency.

[janinsanfran]

There's a pretty interesting post on the immigration debate at Liberal Oasis.I am certain that merely short term, one election cycle, calculations aren't going to work on this one.