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May 31, 2005

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Those Third Way results are extremely disturbing, if true ... but not entirely surprising. For decades, Democratic activists have been giving mainstream voters the finger. Sometimes IN-YOUR-FACE, sometimes furtively over the shoulder in passing, but giving them the finger.

All the while, the Reagan's and Limbaugh's and W's have been there with an arm around the shoulder: "What's bugging you today, bunky?".

And when people fall for this approach, it only confirms our belief in their innate moral and intellectual inferiority. Fuck you, Middle America!

In another article, Brownstein suggests the filibuster compromise was acceptable to Dems because the warring factions (get more moderates vs go after the base) were both okay with it. Repubs/conservatives were not because it challenged conservative hegemony.

I don't see the two Dem factions as incompatible. But we lost too many of the swing voters in 2004 (if not earlier), and that lost us the election even though we got many of the indies and Dems.

This is important data, even if only partially true. It should be matched with Pew for analytsis.

...the income level at which whites were more likely to vote Republican than Democrat – was $23,700 ...

Yikes. As my grandpa used to say, lots of poor people vote Republican because they think that someday they'll be rich and the Democrats will tax it all away from them.

You would think that they could at least wait until they were a little closer to the level at where their taxes really will be higher before casting ballots for the Republicans. But, of course, it's probably more a matter of what RonK points to - middle-finger snobbery - than economics that has driven so many white "middle class" people into the claws of the GOP.

Findings like these confirm the understanding of those of us who think the essense of current conservative power derives from harnassing (largely covert) white anxiety about the nation's shift to becoming a majority minority country. Middle class whites, especially males, think the Dems want to care for our core constituency at their expense. On some level, they are right, because if we want to imagine how electorally bankrupt the Democratic Party is, just think how screwed we'd be if voters of color stayed home.

This is very easy to see here in California; the Dems have not won the white male vote since about 1988. We've passed the demographic tipping point (about 1998) and are learning to live on the other side. Dianne Feinstein is an huge winner because she gets the regular Dem vote from communities of color, the white Dem remnant -- AND grabs a share of white women who male Dems don't reach. Run of the mill Dems win by putting together the white remnant and a large POC vote. And that is the only way we do it statewide.

National Democratic party leadership with vision is going to have to speak to the racial realities if they don't want this simply to become worse as more of the country approaches the demographic tipping point. (Interestingly, the next state up is Texas -??) I actually think many US whites are less personally prejudiced than ever before, but they are still ready to operate out of white fear of being swamped when they cast a ballot. To get through this transition, we are going to need brave political leadership.

Note janinsanfran's comment and the polling data. Now in 30 words or less, lay out a reasoable immigration policy, and predict whether it helps or hurts with the demographic in question.

Maybe the sun will come out from behind that cloud tomorrow, and Ruy Teixeira will chew the sharp corners off this report for us.

Or maybe, contra R.T.'s "emerging majority" thesis, today's minorities will identify more Republican as they go mainstream and move to redder states/counties/precincts.

Love how Bush is still "pushing for reform" nearly five years into his presidency.

There's a pretty interesting post on the immigration debate at Liberal Oasis.I am certain that merely short term, one election cycle, calculations aren't going to work on this one.

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