The clock is ticking on Bush's SS reform

by emptywheel

Via Steve Gilliard I found yet another article spelling doom for Bush's Social Security plan. This article has a couple of nice bits I haven't seen in the other doom-spelling articles. But it also made me realize something important about the timing of this.

Social Security almost certainly isn't going to happen this year.

But with just 49 legislative days left before Congress's planned adjournment, the odds are still against Bush securing the centerpiece of his domestic agenda, Republican lawmakers concede.

"I don't know if we can get it done this year," said Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr. (R-Fla.), a member of the Ways and Means Committee. "I don't think you could get a third of the Congress to vote for any one plan at this point."

Which means they're going to have to try to pitch it again next year. And aside from being an election year, there's another reason why it's going to be a lot harder to sell this stinky fish next year: Bush's Prescription Drug Plan will be coming online, demonstrating to millions of seniors that Bush doesn't have their best interests in mind.

The article describes ways in which the battle lines on Social Security are changing subtly, but interestingly. Jimmy Hoffa did Bush a big favor this week when he promised the Teamsters would support a compromise plan to shore up the program's long-term security (albeit one without private account carve-outs). Given the turmoil in the labor movement, though, it's not clear Hoffa will have the time to give Bush much support on this.

The article also suggests that, given the inaction on Social Security coming from the Finance Committee, Frist may move the issue to the full Senate floor (if he lasts that long, I say...heh). If this happens, the new Gang of 14 might provide leadership for a compromise resolution. Lindsay Graham said as much in post-Compromise press appearances, that the establishment of this block with the Compromise might make it a lot easier to pass Social Security reform.

MATTHEWS:  Social Security, do you think the president‘s plans for some kind of personal accounts has a better shot now? 

GRAHAM:  It has a shot versus no shot.  And watch this group of 14 to come out with some deal for Social Security. 

MATTHEWS:  Really? 

GRAHAM:  Just keep watching. 

(I almost wonder if that wasn't the reason he backed the Compromise so actively, so he could become the deal-maker in a new decisive block of moderates for other legislation.) It's not clear that Graham is going to get his wish, though:

But there is a problem with that scenario as well: Sen. Olympia J. Snowe (R-Maine), the one member of the Finance Committee vocally opposed to private accounts, is also one of the seven Republicans in that "Gang of 14," and Snowe aides said she had promised Grassley she would not cut a deal outside the panel.

More interesting, for me (and this brings us back to timing), was the ironic strengthening of the AARP as a result of its opposition to Bush's plan.

...polls show the public strongly against Bush's proposals and highly critical of his handling of the issue. If anything, public opposition appears to be hardening. The senior lobby AARP has gained nearly 400,000 members -- 20 percent more than it expected -- since the beginning of the year, when it launched its campaign to sink the Bush plan, said AARP spokeswoman Christine M. Donohoo. [emphasis mine]

After the AARP supported Bush's Prescription Drug Plan, around 15,000 seniors cancelled their memberships, according to the AARP. But here, with its very aggressive opposition to Bush's Social Security Plan, the AARP has more than made up for those members who left.

I don't know whether the AARP will catch heat as it becomes more apparent next January just how bad the Prescription Drug Plan is. I do know a lot of people will be paying more and getting less (my mom will probably pay thousands more in drug charges; now, she can afford it, but it's not going to make that Independent voter with a chronic medical condition very happy). And I do know Bush should--better--take the blame for the program. Which should make continued attempts for Bush to reform social security absolutely absurd.

Can you see the bamboozlepalooza events? Bush gets on stage with some seniors and tries to reassure them their benefits won't be cut? "That's what you said about my prescription drug coverage ... but I just heard from my pension administrator I've been cut off and will now have to pay thousands to get my medications." Not a pretty picture for the President.

Comments

[emptywheel]

I'm particularly fascinated by the role of Snowe in this. I've suspected the rise of the moderates may also turn into a revolt of the Committee leadership against Bush's dictating what they do with their committees. Snowe is herself a committee chair, and here she's being depicted as the decisive vote into whether the Gang of 14 can rule the show or whether the Finance Committee (and, by extension, committees in general) retains its traditional role.

But then, I can't imagine Fristie's theatened attempt to use parliamentary maneuvers to bypass Finance is going to be popular, given recent events.

[DemFromCT]

I am one of the AARP joiners, who joined to prevent another GOP sellout.

And how can Snowe promise to stay on board while Frist bypasses the committee? The moment Frist bypasses the committee, she's a free agent.

Headaches and more headaches for Fristie, who is out of his league. Still.

[Mimikatz]

Everyone knows there is a pretty obvious deal to be made on Social Security once private accounts are firmly off the table--raising the wage cap in stages and very slowly raising the age at which full benefits can be claimed, which will have the effect of slowly lowering the percentage of benefits that beneficiaries get if they retire early. It is not necessary to cut benefits except by slowly increasing the age of full benefits, unless one is adamantly against any tax increases. This assumes, of course, that private accounts would ever be taken off the table.

But the folks who are going to face the FICA tax increase are the same folks who will be hit by the AMT in 2006 unless something is done. And that gets us back to the issue of Bush's tax cuts and the damage to be done by making them permanent, especially the top rate and the estate tax repeal.

So all of a sudden it isn't simple anymore. This is the problem for people like Lindsay Graham. When he tries to sweeten the pot for one group, like adding significant add-on tax free accounts, especially with subsidies for those at the bottom of the scale, it exacerbates all the tax issues. Bill Thomas understands all the issues, but it is hard to see a compromise he could pull off either.

And, of course, there really is no need to "fix" Social Security. The real need is to fix Medicare and health care generally, and get a grip on the revenue side. If the economic assumptions indicate there is still a problem in 3-4 years, there is plenty of time to deal with it. This is one time that inertia works in our favor.

[emptywheel]

DemFrom:

I think the idea is she refuses to be a part of a deal made by bypassing the committee. It'd be hard to enforce, certainly. But since she's been so outspoken on opposing Bush's bamboozle, it won't be hard for her to hold up her end of the bargain.

Then again, I'm not sure that one Gang of 14 is enough to push a consensus, and if it is, then Snowe's non-participation might not make a difference.

[RonK, Seattle]

emptywheel -- Seniors like that will never get on stage with the President, will they?

Mimikatz -- Good read. Graham may think he's going to pull a rabbit (or a camel, or a platypus, or something) out of the hat. May be nothing in that hat but spiders and snakes.

[emptywheel]

I'm fairly certain my mom will never be ALLOWED on the stage with the President because I'm sure Ratzinger has done a search of all the Church employees who support the lefty touchy feely Catholic groups in this country and sent the list to Bush for immediate persecution.

But other than her support for lefty Catholic groups, my mom DOES look like the kind of person who'd be up next to Bush. So there's got to be someone without the Ratzinger file who will turn at an appropriate time.

[al-Fubar]

Continuing vigilance is needed, of course, but Social Security deform seems like a nonstarter at this point.

Lindsey Graham was talking out of his ass (and probably knew it). Moderate Republicans - let alone Dems - are not going to sign up to a deal that keeps carve-out private accounts, and hardcore conservatives are not going to accept one that *doesn't* have them. And whatever happens with judicial nominations, it is hardly going to be conducive to a "compromise" surrender on Social Security.

Needless to say, if it doesn't happen this year, it is certainly not going to happen next year, with an election looming. Even conservative GOPers have shown themselves none too eager to join hands and leap into the abyss without Dems to provide human shields. (Yeah, I'm mixing metaphors - sosumi.)

-- Rick Robinso

[praktike]

It strikes me that if committee chairs are making a power grab at Frist's expense, the Gang of 14 won't be able to work up some kind of SS bill without their acquiesence, even though there's some overlap between the two groups. Grassley heads the Finance Committee, and he's not one of the Seven. And the chair of the subcommittee that handles SS is ... Santorum, who has been noticeably skittish about SS reform even though he's officially committed to it. Bob Casey, Jr. will eat him alive on that issue, and he has to be aware of that. PA is one of the oldest states in the country.

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