The Next Hurrah

The clock is ticking on Bush's SS reform

by emptywheel

Via Steve Gilliard I found yet another article spelling doom for Bush's Social Security plan. This article has a couple of nice bits I haven't seen in the other doom-spelling articles. But it also made me realize something important about the timing of this.

Social Security almost certainly isn't going to happen this year.

But with just 49 legislative days left before Congress's planned adjournment, the odds are still against Bush securing the centerpiece of his domestic agenda, Republican lawmakers concede.

"I don't know if we can get it done this year," said Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr. (R-Fla.), a member of the Ways and Means Committee. "I don't think you could get a third of the Congress to vote for any one plan at this point."

Which means they're going to have to try to pitch it again next year. And aside from being an election year, there's another reason why it's going to be a lot harder to sell this stinky fish next year: Bush's Prescription Drug Plan will be coming online, demonstrating to millions of seniors that Bush doesn't have their best interests in mind.

The beauty of Republican discontent

Ah, schadenfreude... maybe I'm a bad, bad person for giggling at conservatives' handwringing over the Republicans' performance in Congress, but I just can't help it.

A May 27, 2005 editorial in The Wall Street Journal " says it all:

Americans have learned to expect little from Congress, and by that standard the 109th version controlled by Republicans has met expectations. On the other hand, anyone who hoped that the GOP would make something of its historic governing opportunity is bound to be disappointed so far.

Five months in, Congress can point to the following achievements: a bankruptcy bill 10 years in the making, and a class-action reform watered down essentially to a jurisdictional change to federal from state courts. That's about it. Among the 2004 campaign promises that aren't close to being fulfilled are making the Bush tax cuts permanent, reforming Social Security and expanding the market for private health care. Instead of any of those big three, Congress next seems poised to pass a subsidy-laden energy bill and a highway bill with some 4,000 earmarks for individual Members. For this we elected Republicans?

(Emphasis mine.)

Translation:  "I trusted you, George!  But you didn't help the haves and the have-mores the way you said you would!  You promised!"

As for Social Security, this statement makes it obvious that not only do some Republicans  disagree with Bush's Social Security proposal, but some of them are downright irritated that he isn't pulling it off the way he said he would.

More:

Pre-emptive surrender has also been the order of the day on taxes, despite the manifest economic success of the 2003 tax cuts. It took a heroic, one-man lobbying effort by Arizona's Jon Kyl to persuade his Senate colleagues to extend the 15% dividend and capital-gains tax rate for a mere two years. Too many GOP Members are cowering in fear over "the deficit" -- except when it comes to spending. That they can still do. The Senate blew past Mr. Bush's already generous $284 billion limit on highways, and overall federal spending is growing by 7% this year.

Any majority party is going to have differences, and compromises are inevitable. But an effective majority, and one that hopes to stay around for a while, has to be able to unite around some governing principles and face up to genuine problems. We'd have thought that for Republicans this would mean a philosophy of limited but energetic government when energy is needed, as it is on national defense and law enforcement.

Hmm... sounds like this editorial will be clipped, savored, and framed by Cato Republicans everywhere.

The final few lines are the pièce de résistance:

Above all, the fight over Mr. Bush's Supreme Court nominations will determine whether the GOP's Senate majority counts for anything at all. The voters don't expect miracles, but they do expect better than what Republicans have so far been able to produce.

As far as I'm concerned, the more disappointed Republicans, the better.

How Big Is The Ohio Coin Scandal?

by DemFromCT

From the Columbus Dispatch (subscription):

Noe wasn’t only broker financing GOP

Money trail points to ‘systemic’ problem, Democrats contend

Gov. Bob Taft, the Ohio Republican Party and other statewide GOP candidates received at least $200,000 in campaign contributions from about 50 brokers who invest taxpayers’ money for the state Bureau of Workers’ Compensation.

That total doesn’t include more than $121,000 in state campaign contributions by embattled Maumee coin dealer Thomas W. Noe, whose newly disclosed investment losses led to the resignation of bureau Administrator James Conrad.

Senate Democrats, at a Statehouse news conference after Friday’s announcement that Conrad will resign June 30, called for new restrictions on campaign contributions from contractors doing business with state government.

"I believe Tom Noe is a little minnow in the pond," said Sen. Teresa Fedor, a Toledo Democrat. "We want to clean it up now."

of course, there are state SC judges involved, and some familiar and recognizable names:

[Democratic State Sen. Marc] Dann, [Democratic State Sen. Teresa] Fedor and Mayor Michael B. Coleman, a Democratic candidate for governor in 2006, called on any officials who received campaign contributions from Noe and his wife, Bernadette, to return that money to the Bureau of Workers’ Compensation.

President Bush and U.S. Sen. George V. Voinovich are among them, Dann said. The U.S. Justice Department is investigating Noe’s role in raising money for Bush at an event Oct. 30, 2003, in Columbus.

Because Attorney General Jim Petro, Auditor Betty D. Montgomery and Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell received money from Noe, they shouldn’t participate in investigating lost coin investments or campaign contributions, Dann added.

It's the Ohio way of doing business (which, btw, is a one-party state). Now explain to me how this helps Blackwell run for Governor? He's got more baggage than American Airlines. In any case, perhaps this will help the woeful Dem party in Ohio get their feet back on the ground. They might start with a decent candidate for Secretary of State. it might help us get a fair and balanced election held in Ohio.

In Memorium

Remember them all. Not just this war, but every war. That's what Memorial Day is for.

This year, I remember this one soldier, in particular. Rest in peace, all.

In Flanders Fields

By: Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, MD (1872-1918)
Canadian Army

IN FLANDERS FIELDS the poppies blow
Between the crosses row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

Sunday Talk: Bad Week For Frist

by DemFromCT

No breaking news here: Brownback confirms he'll filibuster (Oooh! That word!) stem cells, while Specter says he'll quash that and over-ride a veto (on This Week with George S).

Frist will push Meyers (despite any side agreements). Frist will push the nuclear option whenever he's got a judge that's held up. Frist will win. Except... no one knows where the votes are. Specter went on at length about minority rights, and the more this plays out the less sure anyone can be about where the votes are. This is especially true if and when stem cells come first.

In the meantime, Frist continues to get hammered in the press (in a town where perception is reality):

Senate Setbacks Test Frist's Influence
Bush Has Given Difficult Tasks to Him, Analysts Say

For someone with the lofty title of Senate majority leader, Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) has had a terrible week. Last Monday, a curious mix of 14 senators took control of the judicial filibuster issue and crafted a compromise that left Frist grumbling from the outside. On Thursday, he stood glumly on the Senate floor as his party failed to pick up the half-dozen Democrats it needed to end debate on John R. Bolton's nomination to be U.N. ambassador.

The four-day stretch was so dismal that a Los Angeles Times editorial headlined "The Frist Problem" suggested he quit his post if he really wants to run for president in 2008, as many expect.

The more I listen to the folks that 'know', the more I think they haven't a clue. I don't know that Specter will go for this nuclear option in the future. I don't think that after the stem cell vote, the landscape will be the same. I don't know what is going to happen to John Bolton and whether the Senate wishes to be a co-equal branch.

Given a 44+1 Senate composition of Democrats, Reid is playing a weak hand fairly well. Alas, it remains a weaker hand than many would like, hence the CW that one way or another, Bolton gets the position and Frist gets another shot at the nuclear option and rehabilitation. The question will then be at what price? And if Frist loses again with a stronger hand, how does he keep his job? How does Bush deal with stem cells (a veto of stem cells does not help Bush... he's doomed if he doesn't and he gets no further points – while losing many – if he does)? How does Bush deal with the collapse of Social Security?

One other thing I've learned again... the talking heads on TV have no clue as to what the country wants. Everything is still cast in terms of conservatives and the Religious Right and what they want. They are not the country. In the end, the pyrrhic victory for Republicans on stem cells (and Frist's continuing inability to prevent the President from being embarrassed) may just be the beginning of a media pendulum swinging back to where it belongs.

Flu Stories

by DemFromCT

Over at Daily Kos, regular TNH contributor Plutonium Page has summarized one of a series of stories in Nature fictionalizing the flu pandemic of the winter of 2006. Interestingly, the well-respected magazine chose the form of a 'blog' to get the word out.

26 December 2005 It's an emergency -- official

President George Bush has just addressed the press in the East Room of the White House. Here's the transcript: "At this hour, the World Health Organization has declared a full-scale pandemic influenza alert, with person-to-person spread lasting more than two weeks in Cambodia and Vietnam. During previous influenza pandemics in the United States, large numbers of people were ill, sought medical care, were hospitalized and died. On my orders, the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Health and Human Services have today implemented the nation's draft Pandemic Influenza Response and Preparedness Plan. It will serve as our road map, on how we as a nation, and as a member of the global health community, respond to the pandemic. We are ready. Thank you, and may God bless America."

Ready, my ass! I've reported on avian flu for almost a decade. The first thing I did on hearing Bush's address was to get on my cellphone to my husband, Jonathan. I told him to pack some bags and get ready to take the kids to my mother's house in Florida. "Remember all that stuff I told you about how a bird flu pandemic might hit the United States? Well, I think it's about to happen."

A review of the technique is here from the blog WorldChanging:

The current (26 May 2005) issue of Nature focuses on avian flu and the possibility of a pandemic. They've chosen to illustrate how a flu pandemic might play out with a future scenario in the form of a blog. While WorldChanging has written before about both the hype and reality of a possible pandemic, the Nature piece is worth reading -- especially as an example of how scenarios and blogs as narrative vehicles continue to trickle up through traditional media.

In the meantime, the following is not fiction (as we traditionally define it, anyway):

What Is Really Going On In China?

We don't yet know.  But read this collection of links.  Here is the most worrying excerpt:

Reports coming out of Qinghai suggest H5N1 infections in humans and birds are out of control, with birds distributing H5N1 to the north and west, while people are being cremated and told to keep quiet.

Reports from Chinese language papers detail over 200 suspected infections in over two dozen locations in Qinghai Province.  In the most affected 18 regions, there are 121 deaths, generating a case fatality rate above 60%.

While Republicans Worry About Dobson's Agenda...

by DemFromCT

...the reality-based community of all ideological stripes has been working on finding solutions to a real problem: what to do with the health uninsured.

At a time when Congress has been torn by partisan battles, 24 ideologically disparate leaders representing the health care industry, corporations and unions, and conservative and liberal groups have been meeting secretly for months to seek a consensus on proposals to provide coverage for the growing number of people with no health insurance.

The participants, ranging from the liberal Families USA to the conservative Heritage Foundation and the United States Chamber of Commerce, said they had made progress in trying to overcome the ideological impasse that has stymied action on the problem for eight years.

The group, which first came together last October, has not endorsed any specific plan, but has discussed a range of options, including tax incentives for the purchase of insurance, changes in Medicaid to cover more low-income adults and the creation of insurance purchasing pools at the state level.

"This effort holds as much promise as any I've participated in over the last decade, probably more," said Kate Sullivan Hare, the executive director of health care policy at the United States Chamber of Commerce.

      

It's way too early to figure if something good will come out of this, but the numbskulls in the House (and, alas, these days, the Senate) who only know how to vote ideologically might do well to read this story.

Santorum: "No Coincidence" Between Donation and Introduction of Bill (Sic?)

By DHinMI

A few weeks ago Rick Santorum introduced a stupid bill to prohibit the National Weather Service from providing services to the general public that would compete with services provided by a for-profit enterprise located in State College, PA.  Now it's come out that two days before he introduced the bill, which would benefit AccuWeather, Inc, he received a $2000 contribution from the CEO of AccuWeather. 

So what did Santorum say when asked about the timing of the donation, followed just two days later by the introduction of the bill? 

"I don't think there's any coincidence between the two." 

I'm assuming he meant to say that it was a coincidence, that the two events were close together but not by design.  But it's nice to see Rick Santorum reply to an embarrassing question with an honest answer, even if it was just a coincidence. 

Could Lott Return to Senate Leadership?

By DHinMI

This is very interesting:

Work on Nominees Could Return Lott to Senate Leadership

For months, Sen. Trent Lott pulled a list of names from his pocket and told anyone who listened that he had the votes to trigger the "nuclear option" - the change in the Senate's rules that would ease the way for President Bush's judicial nominees.

At the same time, the Mississippi Republican worked quietly to avert it.

Lott wasn't among the 14 senators who signed the pact on Monday that forestalled a Senate showdown. Publicly, he was dismissive.

"Whenever that coalition needs to be picked apart," he said, "we'll pick it apart."

But senators involved in the talks say Lott was instrumental in pushing the Senate to the brink of a historic clash - and in pulling it back. It was a remarkable role for the former Senate leader whose career was nearly ruined by an ill-advised tribute to the late Sen. Strom Thurmond two-and-a-half years ago that made him sound nostalgic for the days of segregation.

In the end, by maneuvering behind the scenes, Lott displayed more flexibility than the man who replaced him at the helm of the Senate, Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn. - and he may have enhanced a political rehabilitation that could return him to the leadership ranks.

Are The States A Preview For The Country?

by DemFromCT

As we take a few days off from the overheated Senate, and as eyes focus on family and other things closer to home on this holiday weekend, I wonder whether the local headlines are a harbinger of things to come nationally.

Massachusetts - What would a stem cell veto look like?

Governor Mitt Romney will appear on a Sunday television news show this weekend to explain his battle with legislative Democrats over his opposition to cloning of human embryos for stem cell research.

Romney, who has gained national acclaim from conservatives for his stance, will appear on ''Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace" along with former NFL star Boomer Esiason, whose son has cystic fibrosis, a genetic disease.

Romney supports stem cell research, but objects to cloning human embryos to further that research.

He has vowed to veto a bill passed by the Legislature that removes any legal ambiguities over embryonic stem cell research in Massachusetts.

Eric Fehrnstrom, Romney's communications director, said yesterday that the Fox show reached out to him, not the other way around.

The other piece of the brave Governor's stance  (which represents few constituents in MA, home of MIT's Whitehead Institute and Harvard's new Stem Cell Institute) is the certain veto over-ride by the legislature, which has the votes. MA is the home of same-sex marriage, and soon to be the home of state-funded stem cell research (joining CA). By the way, lack of federal funding hurts US research efforts, and this Wall Street Journal idea of privately funding the research is junk economics, similar to the junk science of substituting adult stem cells for the real pleuripotent deal. Bait and switch is a Bush staple, just as much as 9/11 scare tactics are.

Sen. Frist should closely watch Romney's Fox News performance touting his failures to do anything substantive as a roadmap for his own efforts to establish his social conservative credentials. Frist's performance this week in the Senate, with stem cells to come, is potentially similar.