Good News On a Possible Congressional Pick-up

By DHinMI

After talking about it for a long time, it looks like Iowa Republican Congressman Jim Nussle is finally going to make it official:

Nussle Lays Out Plans for Trip Across State

Iowa Rep. Jim Nussle unveiled details Wednesday of a statewide barnstorming trip beginning June 1, when he is expected to announce his plans to seek the 2006 Republican gubernatorial nomination.

Nussle plans to begin a three-day fly-around at the Delaware County Courthouse in Manchester, which he has represented in Congress since 1993.

This provides Democrats with one of our best chances to flip a Republican-held seat into the Democratic column in 2006.

Like fellow Iowa Republican Jim Leach, Nussle has managed to hold on to his Democratic leaning 1st District seat for several election cycles.  Iowa's Congressional districts tend to be competitive, and the 1st is no different, although it has a definite Democratic tilt.  Al Gore won it in 2000, and in 2004 it gave John Kerry 52.5%.  The biggest bloc of voters are independents, but Democrats hold a 4 point registration advantage.  It's also nestled between 3 Democratic-held seats, one in each in Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. 

A contested primary is shaping on the Republican side, and a leading Democratic candidate hasn't emerged, although Larry Sabato claims Democrats have a "strong bench of local legislators."  Lots could happen to make this seat less than a likely pick-up, but having some Democratic-leaning seats open up are the kinds of breaks we'll need to at least dent the Republicans' advantage in the House and provide us an outside chance to regain control of the House that DeLay tarnished. 

Comments

[Mimikatz]

Good news indeed. I am posting the OT answer here and not where the OT question was asked. Yes, I was a lawyer and yes, I did a lot of appellate work, mostly in the CA courts but some in the federal courts.

[Greg]

It's good news from the House aspect of things, but ominous news for the Governor's race. For a Democrat to win statewide in Iowa, he or she'd have to rack up big majorities in the east and in Des Moines to counteract the heavily Republican west. A republican with a base of support in the east would cut into those majorities and make it extremely difficult for a Democrat to win.

[Blue the Wild Dog]

That's virtually identical to the situation in the Colorado 7th CD, where Beauprez is leaving for the same reason - to run for Governor. I don't have results for the Presidential election for the 7th, but the voter registration numbers are give a 1.5% edge to Democrats, with Independents the largest group. (But only two adjoining districts are represented by Democrats, as the 3rd doesn't quite touch it.)

[Blue the Wild Dog]

"are give"? Yuk. Blue's Law - If you don't use Preview, you'll regret it.

[demtom]

As you say, expanding the list of "possibles" is the key for 2006. Should a wave hit (and given the Iraq/economy/too-much-fundamentalism fears out there, that's quite possible), we want to be in a position to maximize our potential. One reason the GOP was able to get so much out of 1994 was the retirement of a number of long-serving conservative Dems, and the concentration of black voters into fewer districts, leaving the remainder more GOP-friendly. Minus that, the Pubs might have picked up in the neighborhood of 30-35 seats -- a solid gain, but not even to take over the leadership. Timing plus opportunity creates earthquakes.

Nussle and Leach have driven me crazy for years, as a sort of symbol of why Dems can't seem to wrench back control. The people in their districts lean Dem, they're much un-enamored of ghe GOP national leadership, but in the end they decide "Oh, these are nice guys", and return them to Congress...to vote for Tom DeLay. I wish we could have defeated them outright, but at this point I'll happily settle for taking the seat any way possible.

[DHinMI]

I still refining a metaphor, but I'm more and more thinking of elections in terms of lake levels. When the water's high, there are islands that get covered up. When it's low, you see islands, sandbars, etc. Campaigns are like dredging operations; its a question of whether we can build up the high spots enough to be above the water level, or if the Repubs can scrape off enough of the surface to put it below water.

Still not a very clear or succinct metaphor, but it seems in the direction of how we both seem to view the overall election mood/public opinion dynamic.

[Big River Bandido]

I grew up in this district, and was frustrated to see that in the last election cycle the Democrats recycled an anti-privacy loonie who had already run several pathetic campaigns over the last 25 years for that same seat. If we're going to take back the 1st District of Iowa, it's eminently takeable — but we're going to have to put up a serious candidate who can appeal to the voters in that district while at the same time advancing our party's principles.