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April 19, 2005


The bigger turnover in NYS is when the D's will take over the legislature. Can somebody fill us in on those prospects?

I'm keeping an eye on the messaging of pols like Spitzer and Schweitzer, and possibly a Cal candidate (should one run a competent campaign; Spitzer's competence is not in much doubt). I think we'll see a copycat effect should they prove to be popular. Consultants and candidates around the country will notice.

If only Gray Davis hadn't pissed off so many Dems, perhaps he'd be picked as chief consultant in the next gubernatorial campaign in California, doing the two things he's always done more than competently - raise money and campaign.

I'm hesitant to predict here, because I was excessively vernal in my expectations for this crop of governorships in 2002 -- the unique characteristics of post World Trade Center/Iraq War vote turned that into a uniquely disappointing year (I'd expected Dems to at least take MA and MD, and make some sort of run at Pataki -- though I certainly was pleased about the midwestern victories).

I'm still wary that Schwarzenegger's celebrity status will carry the day in the end...though merely to be in it at this point is way ahead of what I expected six months back. It may be that Arnold suffers from "my way or no way"-itis, and will opt not to run if things don't look certain(using Maria's "I want him more at home" as an excuse).

There's every reason to expect a Democratic tide in '06 -- between standard sixth-year fatigue, post-'04 buyers' remorse, DeLay's problems, and an economy that's far more likely to be awful than wonderful -- and this will make every GOP incumbent's job more difficult. It's hard to see how Pataki survives this trend, especially considering what happened to the far more charismatic and state-attuned governor whom he defeated in '94. Voters have a tendency to not want the party to go on too long, and, with the national GOP trending further and further from NYS priorities, I think Pataki will take the easy way out and not run.

Spitzer seems as solid a gubernatorial candidate as there is in the nation, with cross-aisle appeal. Only a Guiliani candidacy can threaten him...and I doubt Guiliani, with his eyes gleamingly on the presidency, would risk a race where there's ay chance he'd lose.

Crab Nebula asked: "The bigger turnover in NYS is when the D's will take over the legislature. Can somebody fill us in on those prospects?"

There really can't be a Dem "takeover" of the NY legislature. The NY state redistricting process is aggressively pro-incumbent and has resulted in a compromise between the parties: Dems control the assembly while Republicans control the Senate.

NY politics also revolves around the "Upstate"/"Downstate" split. Downstate is New York City and a few counties immediately North. Upstate is everywhere else. Downstate is heavily Democrat and urban. Upstate is more conservative and rural.

So I doubt there would ever be a total Dem takeover, not only because of party issues, but because it would mean a wholesale loss of Upstate influence.

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