Might Dems Take Over the Two Biggest Laboratories of Democracy?

By DHinMI

Justice Louis Brandies famously called states the "laboratories of democracy" for the innovations they initiate that are eventually adopted by the rest of the country.  In the last 100 years the two biggest and most fertile laboratories of democracy have been New York and California.  Before there was a New Deal, NY governor Franklin Roosevelt's "brain trust" had already begun experimenting with state government as a means to ameliorate the pain caused by an unfettered and unregulated market.  And it was in California that the great American post-war boom, led by near-universal use of automobiles, personal and family mobility (especially emigration to the Sun Belt), the rise of the military-industrial complex and the growth of public universities, had its greatest successes and most pronounced pains.  The expansion of state government under Pat Brown and its rollback under Ronald Reagan (with an assist from Proposition 13) symbolize the two great ideologies of Cold War domestic policy.

Democrats were grievously wounded by losing almost every major governorship in the 1990's.  In 1999, Republicans held the governorship in 8 of the 10 largest states, and the two Democrats (Gray Davis of CA and Roy Barnes of GA) were both defeated by the end of 2003.  Not only weren't Democrats able to experiment in the laboratories of Democracy, they had no governors of major states who were potential presidential candidates. 

Things are finally changing.  In 2001 and 2002 Democrats won governors races in PA, IL, MI and NJ, as well as smaller but important states like WI, NM, NC, TN and VA.  And now, things are looking bright in the two most important laboratories of democracy, CA and NY.

In CA Arnold Schwarzenegger's shine is wearing off.  Democratic State Treasurer Phil Angelides has already announced his candidacy, and AG Bill Lockyear is expected to follow.  Schwarzenegger's approval ratings in two recent polls were far below 50%. And Democrats are starting to sense that Schwarzenegger's vulnerability as the public tires of his trite movie one-liners and his penchant for doing just about everything other than stay in Sacramento and do his job. 

Now the NYT is reporting some powerful evidence that George Pataki is not going to defend his office against Democratic challenger Elliot Spitzer:

With Gov. George E. Pataki expected to announce his political plans as soon as next month, talk of his future has consumed the capital. And many of the signs are pointing away from Albany.

Numerous lobbyists, lawmakers and political operatives here say they do not expect him to run for a fourth term as governor. They point to a slow but steady exodus of aides from the Pataki administration, to unenviable poll numbers, and to indications that some of his supporters are beginning to cozy up to Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, a leading Democratic contender in the 2006 governor's race.

Former Senator Alfonse M. D'Amato, a friend and confidant of Mr. Pataki's who helped make him governor, has shared a few meals with Mr. Spitzer and has praised him publicly. And Mr. D'Amato's former chief of staff, John Zagame, was listed as a sponsor on the printed invitations to two fund-raisers that Mr. Spitzer held last year.

Former Mayor Edward I. Koch, another supporter of the governor who has also donated money to Mr. Spitzer's campaign, said he fully expected that Mr. Pataki's next job would be in the private sector and offered that Mr. Pataki would make "an excellent C.E.O." Asked if he thought Mr. Pataki would seek a fourth term, Mr. Koch said, "I hope not, because I don't want to see him disappointed, and I believe he would lose."...

"I know for a fact the governor has not told anyone he is not running," said one longtime adviser to Mr. Pataki, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the situation. "I think he has told people he is inclined not to, but he leaves himself the door open."

If the strongest statement one of his advisers can offer is that Pataki hasn't yet said he's not running, that doesn't sound to me that he'll be on next year's ballot. 

We won't control the federal executive branch for at least 3 1/2 more years, and it may be a while before we get back either chamber of Congress.  But with Democrats fairing better in races for statehouses and state legislatures, there's hope on the horizon for progressive experiments in the laboratories of democracy.

Comments

[Crab Nebula]

The bigger turnover in NYS is when the D's will take over the legislature. Can somebody fill us in on those prospects?

I'm keeping an eye on the messaging of pols like Spitzer and Schweitzer, and possibly a Cal candidate (should one run a competent campaign; Spitzer's competence is not in much doubt). I think we'll see a copycat effect should they prove to be popular. Consultants and candidates around the country will notice.

[Meteor Blades]

If only Gray Davis hadn't pissed off so many Dems, perhaps he'd be picked as chief consultant in the next gubernatorial campaign in California, doing the two things he's always done more than competently - raise money and campaign.

[demtom]

I'm hesitant to predict here, because I was excessively vernal in my expectations for this crop of governorships in 2002 -- the unique characteristics of post World Trade Center/Iraq War vote turned that into a uniquely disappointing year (I'd expected Dems to at least take MA and MD, and make some sort of run at Pataki -- though I certainly was pleased about the midwestern victories).

I'm still wary that Schwarzenegger's celebrity status will carry the day in the end...though merely to be in it at this point is way ahead of what I expected six months back. It may be that Arnold suffers from "my way or no way"-itis, and will opt not to run if things don't look certain(using Maria's "I want him more at home" as an excuse).

There's every reason to expect a Democratic tide in '06 -- between standard sixth-year fatigue, post-'04 buyers' remorse, DeLay's problems, and an economy that's far more likely to be awful than wonderful -- and this will make every GOP incumbent's job more difficult. It's hard to see how Pataki survives this trend, especially considering what happened to the far more charismatic and state-attuned governor whom he defeated in '94. Voters have a tendency to not want the party to go on too long, and, with the national GOP trending further and further from NYS priorities, I think Pataki will take the easy way out and not run.

Spitzer seems as solid a gubernatorial candidate as there is in the nation, with cross-aisle appeal. Only a Guiliani candidacy can threaten him...and I doubt Guiliani, with his eyes gleamingly on the presidency, would risk a race where there's ay chance he'd lose.

[phaedrus]

Crab Nebula asked: "The bigger turnover in NYS is when the D's will take over the legislature. Can somebody fill us in on those prospects?"

There really can't be a Dem "takeover" of the NY legislature. The NY state redistricting process is aggressively pro-incumbent and has resulted in a compromise between the parties: Dems control the assembly while Republicans control the Senate.

NY politics also revolves around the "Upstate"/"Downstate" split. Downstate is New York City and a few counties immediately North. Upstate is everywhere else. Downstate is heavily Democrat and urban. Upstate is more conservative and rural.

So I doubt there would ever be a total Dem takeover, not only because of party issues, but because it would mean a wholesale loss of Upstate influence.

[Ricky]

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