Will Young Voters Help Karl Rove Create a Raw Deal Coalition?

By DHinMI

The Associated Press has released a poll they commissioned from Ipsos-Public Affairs, and it fits with previous polls and focus groups that show the public disapproves of the way Bush is handling Social Security, in this case by a margin of 56% disapprove to only 37% approve.  Of course these numbers mean little by themselves; the crosstabs might show where Bush is failing or holding his own, but as of now the AP and Ipsos-Public Affairs are only releasing the topline results.

I've been casually looking for crosstabs with detailed breakdowns by age, because one of the political rationales given for Bush's desire to implement private accounts is to hook in younger voters who would be enthralled with their admission to the "ownership society" and would then become reliable Republican voters, just as Northern ethnics and Catholics and white working class Southern voters became the foundation of the New Deal Democratic majority. 

There is a serious flaw, however, in Karl Rove's theory of hooking in younger voters the way FDR hooked voters with the New Deal.  FDR's coalition was solidified by the New Deal.  Those voters who became lifelong Democrats did so only after first voting for FDR in 1932 and/or 1936.  Their vote was rewarded with the benefits they received as a result of the New Deal.  But the majority of young voters didn't vote for Bush, they voted for Kerry.  In fact, other than Bob Dole, no Republican at least back to Gerald Ford did as poorly with young voters as did Bush, while in the same period only Reagan did better with voters 60 and older.  (For another comparison, in 1988 voters 60 and older only favored G.H.W. Bush by one percentage point, and in 2000 supported Gore over G.W. Bush 51%-47%, but this time flipped to Bush 54%-46%.) 

This sets up an interesting and potentially very destabilizing dynamic for the Republicans.  By pushing Social Security "reform," Bush and the Republicans risk alienating what's become one of their hard-core constituencies, older Americans.  On the other hand, since many young voters already intensely distrust Bush because of the war in Iraq, the possibility of a draft, and his Medieval policies on diversity and social tolerance, there's little reason to think that their distrust would melt away over the issue of privatizing social security. 

It's becoming clear that the Congressional Republicans are concerned about this potential loss of older voters without an offsetting gain among young voters.  As the War on Social Security grinds on over the next few months, if young voters don't come around to support Bush's plan to privatize Social Security, he may end up unable to enact any significant change to the Social Security system, and Karl  Rove's dreams of a Raw Deal coalition could fade into oblivion. 

Comments

[Petey]

"It's becoming clear that the Congressional Republicans are concerned about this potential loss of older voters without an offsetting gain among young voters."

It's gotta be a spooky time to be a GOP House member. Even if your own seat is safe, no one wants to be in the minority in the House.

"As the War on Social Security grinds on over the next few months, if young voters don't come around to support Bush's plan to privatize Social Security, he may end up unable to enact any significant change to the Social Security system, and Karl  Rove's dreams of a Raw Deal coalition could fade into oblivion."

My lone fear is that I'm currently seeing pro-Bush SS commercials on national cable, and no anti-Bush SS commercials. I have no reason to expect this state of affairs to persist, but if it were to persist for a month or two, the poll numbers could start to move.

In short, I hope someone is dealing with getting on the air.

[BoulderDuck]

Interesting post.

Another, separate question I have not seen much on (forgive me if I missed stuff on this over at MyDD):

Why is the 60 and over crowd shifting to vote for Bush?

The only thing I can think of is gay marriage, to be honest. It seems to me that people who are upset enough about gay marriage to decide a vote based on it are generally older. Just an impression, mind you.

So...I hope that as the gay marriage thing plays out and people discover that it does not mean the end of civilization... this effect washes out.

I just can't even think of another hypothesis for the trend.

[NG]

Let's face it, when one generation lives beyond its means on credit, and as a result saddles a future generation with large debt to pay for that previous generation's cowardice, stupidity, greed, whatever, it certainly is politically appealing to point out to this young generation how thay are being screwed.

The real hypocrisy of it all, however, is that it is Bushco economic/political policy that is screwing these younger folk! Bush is not the messenger of bad tidings; he is the cause! Dems must make that more clear!

[Duckbill Platypus]

Boulderduck, maybe Vietnam? would like to see numbers on that. possibly only Vietnam and older men? or older women too?