My Guesses on Why Rove Resigned

by emptywheel

By now you've heard the news: Rove is stepping down. So here's my treatment of possible reasons why he's leaving, in reverse order of their likelihood:

Time with the Family

As he said to the WSJ, he wants to spend more time with this family. Of course, this is a load of horse puckey--if he had wanted to spend time with his family, he surely would have done it before his son went to college.

Republicans Think He's a Loser

The Republicans have finally realized he's a loser. Mahablog links to a well-timed Atlantic article that lays out Rove's failures:

• Social Security
• Faith-based wingnut welfare
• Katrina
• The 2006 elections

It is quite likely that Republicans have finally realized that if you want support from voters, you need to actually deliver on policies, not just promise to. But to change the previous "create our own reality" approach to governance, you'd have to get rid of Rove, because that's all Rove does. With one exception.

Republicans Think He's a Loser, Nativist Edition

I said there was one exception to the rule that Rove simply "creates his own reality" and makes policy promises without delivering on those promises. The exception was supposed to be Latino voters. That is, Rove really did want to court the Latino vote, rather than just claiming Republicans had Latino support. The reason is obvious: if Republicans don't get Latino voters, they're sunk.

Of course, this conflicts (and has, in noticeable ways) with the nativist instincts of the base of the Republican party. About the only thing, at this point, that could mobilize the Republican base (and save some Congressional seats, if not the White House) is to give in to these nativist instincts, and start attacking brown people with gusto. But I doubt Rove would stick around for that--he knows the numbers too well. So it's possible that Rove is out so the Republicans can turn into the full-fledged racist party they've always been.

Update: Athenae goes to Freepi-land, so I (and you) don't have to. And sure enough, they're thrilled to see Rove and his Latino-friendly ways gone.

The Sheriff Is Coming

Several times in the WSJ coverage of Rove's resignation, it notes that, Rove was thinking of leaving a year ago:

"I just think it's time," he says, adding that he first floated the idea of leaving to Mr. Bush a year ago. His friends confirm he had been talking about it with others even earlier.

Of course, it wasn't exactly a year ago. It was more like 15 months ago, when it looked likely that Rove would be indicted in the Plame investigation. So it's quite possible that Rove is leaving just three steps ahead of one of the many sheriffs that have him in their sites sights. These include:

The Abramoff Investigation

We know Rove is tied in with everyone tied in with the Abramoff inevstigattion. We know that Susan Ralston, Rove's Assistant was closely involved--and it appears that she has been refused immunity, even though some of her testimony about Abramoff appears to be quite interesting. Novak, at least, thinks Ralston would get to Rove. So it's possible that Rove is one of the ultimate targets of the Abramoff investigation.

The OSC Investigation

This is easy. We know Rove is a target of the OSC investigation into the politicization of anything and everything in the entire government. We know he did, in fact, politicize anything and everything. The ultimate outcome of an OSC investigation would consist of Scott Bloch explaining that Rove did politicize anything and everything and recommending that Bush should fire him, but then to have Bush sit on that recommendation as he has with Lurita Doan. But perhaps Rove is leaving anyway, in an attempt to prevent us all from learning how closely our government resembles that of a one-party state, like maybe the old Soviet Union.

The Iglesias Investigation

But I'm most interested in the possibility that Rove is rushing out just two steps ahead of the Iglesias investigation. HJC is collecting a great deal of evidence that DOJ employees covered up the real reasons for the Iglesias firing ... and that the real reason for the firing had everything to do with politicizing the judiciary. It not only has evidence that Will Moschella, Paul McNulty, and Alberto Gonzales lied about the reasons for Iglesias' firing, it appears that Moschella, at least, is getting downright cooperative (and note, McNulty is going to be out of DOJ at almost the same time as Rove will be out of the WH). 

If this is the reason Rove is quitting, it's not just that BushCo wants him out before he's officially indicted. After all, it's not just Rove--but Bush, too--who was involved in firing Iglesias. So Rove may be leaving as part of a firewall approach in an attempt to save Bush. If it comes to it, Rove may admit to having Iglesias fired in an attempt to politicize the entire judiciary to hide the fact that--in this specific case, at least--Bush but was involved in that process, too. [Aw jeebus, how many of you had to tell me about that last typo before I could find it??]

Comments

[Jodi]

emptywheel,

I think you are just giving self serving reasons. But that is nothing unusual. It is the usual business of political pundits to be self serving though they always claim to be serving the greater good.

By leaving now, Mr Rove is actually putting himself at more risk.

Personally I think that he is just tired of putting up with all the bad press and its effect on his life and family.

Look at Mr Rumsfeld. Life is very quiet and very good now for him. It is an example I believe Karl took to heart.

[profmarcus]

bill kristol calls rove's resignation "odd," imho, a tremendous understatement... here's what a commenter at the wapo had to say...
-----
For one of the most powerful men in the world to walk away from this position in such short order, a mere 18 days, means that there truly is something coming on down the pike. There is about to occur an event or action, which even Rove won't be a party to. Such a sudden departure, when Bush has such little time left to serve, has President Cheney's stench all about it. Reading the President's under-reported directive on establishing martial law and suspending the Constitution; in light of the strengthened Patriot Act and increased domestic surveillance legislation; and the several completed military plans enabling a military take-over of state and local government makes for an alarming future. Why would all this exist if not to be used? All it takes is one incident to make the country willing to trade the Constitution for security. Maybe, this either goes too far for Rove or he's an impediment to Cheney. This is not a simple resignation.
-----
i would tend to agree with the thought that something big is coming down the pike, but i wouldn't venture to speculate on what it might be...

http://takeitpersonally.blogspot.com/

[BeowulfSchaefer]

Sights.

Not sites.

[emptywheel]

Thanks Beowulf--one of my most consistently improperly used words.

[Elsie]

Nonsense, Jodi. Up until this point, I've seen little credible evidence that Rove ever had such an organ. He has no one but himself to blame for all the 'bad press', and if he cared about his family, he wouldn't have disgraced it with all his political hijinks. Do you think his son, who's now headed off to college, will appreciate his 'sacrifice' of his office in order to 'spend more time with his family'?

[Phoenix Woman]

Jodi: What risk?

Really, what risk?

Bush will pardon Rove, you know that.

Republicans like to say that theirs is the Party of Personal Responsibility, but you know perfectly well that Bush will pardon him.

[Nola Sue]

My first reaction was surprise that they're spinning off Rove before Abu. I'd have been sure that Rove was a firewall-within-a-Gonzo-firewall.

Gives more strength to the Iglesias scenario, IMHO.

[FreddyMoraca]

"...one of the many sheriffs that have him in their sites."

I love this typo: our kind of sherriff uses websites, not gunsights!

[Sally]

Interesting that Rove attacked Senator Clinton in the WSJ article as being "fatally flawed." Yep, his sights will be on bringing her down while he's lying low trying to avoid the Democrats' assault on his evil deeds.

[p_lukasiak]

What intrigues me about this is how vulnerable it makes Rove to a congressional supoena --- and the use of congress' power of inherent contempt.

I was hoping that Miers would be cited for inherent contempt, but realize that the visuals of this sweet little old lady being held in jail by Congress would suck. But Rove being arrested by the seargeant at arms and frog marched to the basement of the Congress building? That would not bother anyone...

[Boo Radley]

Thanks emptywheel, great analysis, as per usual. I hope you, Jane Hamsher, Digby, Atrios, Kos, Christy Smith, and many others take very legitimate pride in this. If you get a chance, I am interested if you think the Republicans on the HJC told Bush that they could no longer protect Rove?

[FreddyMoraca]

another appropriate one: in the last line, read "Bush" for "but[t]"

[Mary]

It's interesting that he picks "after my son leaves for college" to go spend more time with him.

College.

Guess Rove's boy isn't going to go fight his daddy's war, is he?

I held out hope on Abramoff for a bit (Zeidenburg was working on Abramoff as well as Plame) but these days I'm pretty much in the, "law, what law?" camp. Our DOJ hasn't had the heart or will or integrity to survive Bush.

[4jkb4ia]

Another possibility: Rove will go to work for one of the Republican pygmies, because they will need all the help they can get.

[radiofreewill]

A RICO squeeze is still a possibility.

If (and it's a big 'if') sealed vs sealed were Fitz v Gonzo over Unlawful Political Influence for pocketing the Rove Indictment (making Leopold's indictment piece right all along,) then one might expect the first sign of a ruling for Fitz on sealed vs sealed would be action against Rove.

Which would then suggest that Gonzo is the next dominoe.

[MayBee]

Maybe he's going to work on someone else's campaign, or for the Republicans in general.

[pseudonymous in nc]

Another intriguing possibility: documents that corroborate the affidavit in the Don Siegelman case.

[Sally]

So none of us believe Rove's version of why he is leaving. But the media fools are pretending they do.

[Lisa]

I always wondered...if Rove is so damn brilliant a strategist and is interested in nothing but a permanent Republican control, what was his post-2004 plan (considering their dreadful showing in 06 and the weakness of the 08 field)? This resignation scares me-I worry that he's leaving Bush on cruise control for the next 18 months to go and work on the '08 elections.

[joejoejoe]

It can be all of your reasons at once. My guesstimate of causality:

Time with the Family - 15% (even Rove is probably sick of Bush at this point)
Republicans Think He's a Loser - 0% (always room to recycle losers in politics)
Republicans Think He's a Loser, Nativist Edition - 30% (GOP hates teh brown)
The Sheriff Is Coming - 55%
(see breakdown below)
a) The Abramoff Investigation - 80% Sheriff (following money is easy for prosecutors)
b) The OSC Investigation - 5% (I don't see traction)
c) The Iglesias Investigation - 15% (see above + 10% EW bonus, she is smarter than me and probably right)

[emptywheel]

joejoejoe

You can take my extra 10% off the family claim--for a long time, Rove's marriage has been reputed to be just a front for dalliances with others from both sex, and really, the whole son at college thing kind of dminishes the time with family excuse.

[Rayne]

It figures. They rousted the minder out of bed early to wait and squat on this post.

Jodi, prove that Rummy doesn't have access to DOD or a desk there yet, or security clearance. And all Rove ever had to do to keep the press from keeping tabs on him (hah, that's a joke) is act within the bounds of the law. Simple. Works for most Americans.

[Rayne]

Ah...now perhaps that really is the truth. What if Rove needed more time at home to divvy up marital assets with the spouse, now that the boy is off to college? That's one way to protect them after all, file for divorce after putting a big chunk in the wife's name.

[John B.]

MT Wheel says: "...Rove's marriage has been reputed to be just a front for dalliances with others from both sex."

Hmmm....so, why was "Jeff Guckert/Gannon" in the White House at odd hours and at non-press conference times?

Enquiring minds want to know...

[pontificator]

I'll add one more possible reason. I wonder if perhaps some reporter has finally gotten his hands on the Rove grand jury transcripts, and the WH knows they are about to be released. Rove testified on at least five occassions (as opposed to Libby, who only testified twice), and it can be expected that there are lots and lots of embarassing tidbits to be revealed.