"At 56 years old says he is done with political consulting"

by emptywheel

I've laid out some possible reasons for Rove's resignation here. But I'd like to do a close reading of the WSJ story associated with the announcement, partly because I think it so fascinating that Rove would feel the need to pitch his own successes and failures on his way out the door.

The Investigations

Far and away the most interesting comment in the article, though, is this self-assessment from Rove:

His biggest error, Mr. Rove says, was in not working soon enough to replace Republicans tainted by scandal.

Consider the logic: Rove believes that if he just got those who were mired in scandal to step down before the scandal broke, then he might have been able to save the Republican majority. This, from a guy stepping down before--Josh Bolten has dictated--everyone must commit to stay through the next election. That's not definitive proof, of course, but Rove logic would suggest that Rove may well be imminently tainted by scandal. And Rove doesn't deny he's stepping down because of scandal. Instead he throws incendiary words out there like "mob" and "Mark of Rove," without ever denying that there may be is merit to the allegations. (Speaking of which, check out this link from pseudonymous in nc, which suggests there are hundreds of pages of papers relating to the Don Siegelman case at DOJ.)

What about those who say he's leaving to avoid Congressional scrutiny? "I know they'll say that," he says, "But I'm not going to stay or leave based on whether it pleases the mob." He also knows he'll continue to be a target, even from afar, since belief in his influence over every Administration decision has become, well, faith-based.

"I'm a myth. There's the Mark of Rove," he says, with a bemused air. "I read about some of the things I'm supposed to have done, and I have to try not to laugh." He says the real target is Mr. Bush, whom many Democrats have never accepted as a legitimate president and "never will."

I especially like the way Rove admits that "the real target is Mr. Bush," not because Rove observes the banality that many people believe he was not elected. But because, as I've suggested, Bush may well be the target.

Rove's Self-Assessment

And then there's the whole point of the article--to use this opportunity to try to lay out a map for the fall (and claim successes in the past). Very curious that Rove would feel the need to do this with the WSJ editorial page, which suggests he's trying to suck up to the base and, also, that he realizes that anything less than a softball interview will be damaging. But here's the most interesting thing Rove says about the future, reading straight from his "Months Ahead" talking points document (I'm curious, Rove, did you leave it with Gigot so he could get the details right?):

One says "Up to Now," and summarizes what he thinks are the achievements to date of the Bush presidency. The second, "Months Ahead," lays out an agenda for the next year and a half.

"He will move back up in the polls," says Mr. Rove, who interrupts my reference to Mr. Bush's 30% approval rating by saying it's heading close to "40%," and "higher than Congress."

Again, remember the dynamics here. Rove speaking to a very friendly right-wing editor. And even then, he's getting pushback. Rove goes on:

Looking ahead, he adds, "Iraq will be in a better place" as the surge continues.

In this, and in the other passages claiming the Dems will be tainted by their anti-war stance, Rove never deals with the fact that everyone hates this war, not just Dems. You simply don't turn this kind of public opinion around, nor do you turn this kind of counter-insurgency around without a lot more smart people and willing soldiers than we've got. Fascinating, then, that Rove's biggest delusion has to do with the war.

Not so, I think, for his understanding of what September will look like for Congress.

Come the autumn, too, "we'll see in the battle over FISA" -- the wiretapping of foreign terrorists -- "a fissure in the Democratic Party." Also in the fall, "the budget fight will have been fought to our advantage," helping the GOP restore, through a series of presidential vetoes, its brand name on spending restraint and taxes.

Frankly, if Dems don't push hard on Republicans as well as Dems about FISA, we will not only make no progress, but miss an opportunity to reach out to libertarians, many of whom are ripe to leave the Republican party anyway.

With his comments on the budget battle, I think Rove simply confirms what Kagro X has been predicting for months now. Bush has promised to veto almost all of the appropriations bills, which Bush will use to try to force things into appropriations that Democrats won't be able to prevent. Not to mention the energy it'll suck out of Iraq debates, even as the September false-deadline for success arrives.

Come Magical September, when we're supposedly going to see massive upheaval in the Congress with respect to Iraq policy, it also appears we're going to be handed back every single appropriations bill we've passed, and told to rewrite it to match the president's budget, or face vetoes and a government shutdown.

Finally, though, Rove is depending on someone else to save the Republicans:

As for the Democrats, "They are likely to nominate a tough, tenacious, fatally flawed candidate" by the name of Hillary Rodham Clinton. Holding the White House for a third term is always difficult given the pent-up desire for change, he says, but "I think we've got a very good chance to do so."

What does it mean that the Master of "the Math" is counting on a bum opponent for Republican hopes to keep the White House? Which is why I think the title quote from this post--that Rove is done with political consulting, and this line directly addressing 2012, is so interesting:

And what about Jeb Bush in 2012? Mr. Rove first says with a tone of skepticism, "Ask Jeb." Then he adds, "You better get a younger man. My wife would kill me."

Back to the "more time with the family" excuses, of course. But Rove is consistently claiming to be done with consulting. Maybe he'll show up in bed with Fred Thompson next week. But I do suspect that, for the short term, he's going to stay out of it. Because if your best hopes are on Hillary Clinton fucking up, it doesn't say much for your math.

Comments

[William Ockham]

If he shows up on Mitt Romney's payroll, I expect to get some kudos. If he doesn't, feel free to mock me.

[oldtree]

much like the mafia, he will try to run the campaign from prison

[GSD]

Well, do the math.

If Rove was going to work for Romney it wouldn't be the smartest thing in the world to destroy the first big political victory for Mitt Romney, by stepping on the Romney 'victory' in the Iowa straw polls with the Rove resignation story.

Rove is going on "time out" from politics.

Besides his math was pretty bad in 2006.

-GSD

[JEP]

Rove believes "the mob" is "out there" just waiting to gather some day in front of his condo, carrying torches and pitchforks. Like somethoing from a Frankenstien movie.

Dr. Frankenrove and his Bush monster...

Now there's an image to work with.

And here's some wisdom worth noting, Marcy I hope Howard Dean gets to read this personally, and one of his Rovian, ladder-climbing staffers doesn't run interference... "if Dems don't push hard on Republicans as well as Dems about FISA, we will not only make no progress, but miss an opportunity to reach out..."

Dems need to take this a s cue to lean harder against the Republican's neocon core, the Republican Party itself may ot be facing extinction, but I carry a great deal of hope that its no-bid, book-cooking, war-profiteering "wing" may have seen it's last days.

[orionATL]

the great satan is on his way out the door, but only after helping destroy the bush presidency.

two things are clear about rove:

1 - he is a congenital liar; he would lie when it was easier to tell the truth

and

2 - he is a skilled whiner and ass-coverer.

it's the latter talent i suspect is most at work here.

just as he is assuring all that things are ok in iraq when they are not,

he is saying the republican party is basically ok, when, in fact, it is disintegrating

ass-covering?

it was really those crooked republicans, not rove or bush, who were responsible for the 2006 loss of congress.

karl's only mistake, as karl tells the story, is that he wasn't tough enough with those miscreant republican congressmen.

yeah, right. one of the most vindictive and ruthless figures in american politics was a softie.

as for the future,

let's see,

how long does it take in america for a scoundrel to be rehabilitated in the media?

two years, three?

and then the legend of jessie james, starring karl rove, will start playing on your teevee.

[Frank Probst]

Hmmm. My money would be on Sealed v Sealed. Nobody in this administration resigns until they absolutely have to, and of all the investigations that are out there, this one is the furthest along.

[margaret]

Today is my 67th Birthday. I was born in 1940, of an American mother, 5th generation, D.A.R., and a German father, who was designated, in the subsequent months, as an Enemy Alien. I learned from him that our citizenship is a valuable, precious thing, and must always be reinforced by being an active part of our government: We arethe government.

The perfect Birthday present, one which would reflect some of the proud memories I have of my life as a U.S. citizen, would be honor, honesty, and justice brought back to the process of government in Washington. Karl Rove's resignation, whioch I learned of from Scott Horton's wonderful blog at Harper's, is a partial gift in that direction, and I rejoice! Rejoice! Rejoice!

[selise]

i can't help but be hopeful about rove leaving.... hope he's leaving as the investigators are closing in.

not so hopeful about the dems though. "Frankly, if Dems don't push hard on Republicans as well as Dems about FISA, we will not only make no progress, but miss an opportunity to reach out to libertarians, many of whom are ripe to leave the Republican party anyway."

between fisa and iraq/iran - the dems might lose me too. there are other important issues (like the climate and the economy), but i don't expect the dems in congress to be able to pass good law now. i do expect them to stop bad law. their inability to do that does not give me hope for a future of good law.

[BillE]

He has to go home so he can control the election stealing operations directing them far from the white house. Its to use the FISA 105B section to attack the vote counting / delivery systems to do the "Math"

The whole RNC server thing with Ohio on steroids.

[margaret]

Selise, the "law" written in Congress is only as "good" as the people who send their Representatives to Congress. You are an important part of government and you must play your role by demanding "good law." The people who do not believe We the People have a voice are the ones who do not participate.

[KLynn]

Frank-
"Hmmm. My money would be on Sealed v Sealed. Nobody in this administration resigns until they absolutely have to, and of all the investigations that are out there, this one is the furthest along."

You caught my eye on this suggested point...THAT would be interesting.

[orionATL]

selise -

the "libertarian" cite is an important point.

there is quite a bit of libertarian in most americans.

that presents a real opportunity to the democratic party to make more of these issues, including freedom to criticize gov't openly and loudly, to chose sexual partners, to have access to contraception and abortion, to make family and child rearing decisions without govt meddling, to be treated respectfully by police and security personnel, to have much more control over personal information demanded by corporations, to have an absolute right of habeas, etc

[andhowe]

What with political armageddon this fall shaping up, anybody want to hazard a guess at the order of battle?

[stagemom]

iraq will be in a better place, because they will all be dead.
600,000 and counting.
fuck you, karl rove.
worst. person. in the universe.

[selise]

margaret - oh, i see now. i'm a lousy citizen and my lousy government is all my fault because i don't participate. thanks for explaning it so clearly.

orionATL - i agree. foreign policy (especially wars) also matters to people who self-identify as libertarian. don't know if that is true for the "libertarian in most americans" you describe. i'd like to think so, but just don't know.

[emptywheel]

WO

I'm not ruling out Rove working for a Presidential. But I'd put my money on Fred over Mitt. Fred's already got a number of key Rove allies, so why not Rove himself?

[pontificator]

Hey -- EW quoted in the NYT!

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/08/13/roves-august-surprise/index.html?hp

Good point. Who the heck quits their job to spend more time with their kids who JUST STARTED COLLEGE!!

That's precisely the age where you start spending LESS time with your kids.

[Jodi]

Karl , if I may be so bold and personal for a moment, will spend a few weeks off, and then get about setting up shop at home, and begin his memoirs, the first of a series, which will start to be available early 2009.

He probably will be willing to do a little consulting for certain candidates, but only giving his opinion of final strategies. If there is an (at this point) upset in 2008, he could reappear in Government.

He is still protected from Congress by the same mechanisms as before and doesn't expect any kind of indictments though he knows Congress mainly driven by the bloggers still considers him to be "white meat." This may cause him to "travel overseas" a bit during Congressional Hearings season just to avoid the crap.

In 2008, his memory will have started to fade much as Rumsfeld's has.

[Mimikatz]

Agree that Rove is leaving because something is about to hit the fan in the next months.

If I had to put money on one thing, it would be the Don Seligman prosection. Scott Horton at Harper's (and the NY Bar Association) has run a series of articles about the Seligman prosecution and obviously has a great deal of info. Rove was up to his eyeballs in it. Ultimately, this is more serious than David Iglesias' firing, because they sent a man to prison based on trumped up charges and gross prosecutorial and judicial misconduct, and Congress is investigating.

Interesting that it would be Rove who has to leave and not Gonzo, showing that BushCo is at the point where they need the judicial firewall more than political advice. And Rove's stock in that regard has really sunk. The Atlantic profile of Rove by Josh Green (who wrote the famous earlier expose of Rove's involvement in Alabama judicial politics, truly a scurrilous tale) is well worth a read, even if we here and Josh Marshall have made many of the same criticisms over the years. (Short version: Can win elections, though not always fairly, but is arrogant about policy, has no concept of how to govern and has fostered a kleptocracy.)

[Boo Radley]

"In 2008, his memory will have started to fade much as Rumsfeld's has"

Jodi, and to all the trolls that comment here as Jodi, just ask Robert McNamara, how much he "faded" from the memory of those who died in Vietnam.

[Cheryl]

I always learn so much from your posts and from the excellent comments. I have a couple of other speculations on Rove -- could Pat Leahy have asssigned a special prosecutor -- Fitz perhaps? I would love that one.

Or maybe he's retiring to be Jeb Bush's campaign manager for his presidential run? OMG, now that's scary. Weren't they all together this last weekend?

[Boo Radley]

EPU'd on the prior thread.

"Another interesting rumor I picked up (again from a person who MIGHT know, but probably doesn't) is that the Rove departure is the beginning of an agressive effort by Fielding to "get in front of" the various DoJ scandals, and that Gonzo well be gone, unwillingly, as soon as they have a nominee for AG that is both completely, scrupulously honest, AND completely in the bag, and they got that last night (with no indication of who this walking dichotomy is) and Fielding launched his plan with Rove's announced departure (also rumored to be part of the new AG designee's price). This plan was described to me in primarily military language (getting the innitiative and keeping it, singleminded persuit of a specific goal (no indictments until after Bush's last, pardon-drenched moments in office) which may give a hint to it's proponant's identities. Both rumors I report today were given probably in the hopes of dissemination, and so deserve suspicion. But they are fun to kick around.

Posted by: lizard | August 13, 2007 at 12:08"

[bmaz]

I suspect there are numerous components behind Rove's departure. Certainly all the grounds EW proffered and that appear to be the core of discussion so far. I do think that PinNC's suggestion regarding the Siegelman matter in Alabama, as well as another commenter's suggestion that Larry Flynt may have something juicy (pun semi-intended), are awfully interesting thoughts as well. Whatever the amalgam truly consists of, it does not account for Rove's exit alone. Likely the more important consideration is how the forces on Rove personally figure into the bigger picture of the whole Administration. I picture a crippled jetliner, furiously dumping fuel in a panicked effort to make it the last distance and get down on the ground at the destination before it crashes and burns in a fireball.

We have been extremely focused on the FISA debacle; and rightfully so. Indeed, as soon as everyone's joy is expressed and discussed, we would be wise to get back to what is important, and that is the health of our Constitution and exposing what has happened clearly to the greater public so that the malfeasants are never able to infect our system of government again, In this vein, I suggest that Bushco had to jettison a source of liability and attack locus; and so much the better if it served as a sort of shiny object chaff in the process. There were only three choices here: Cheney, Gonzales or Rove. Wasn't going to be Cheney, he is the Darth Boss after all. Gonzo is way to deep in the middle of perhaps the biggest Constitutional and criminal attack on the citizenry in our nation's history; not to mention that he is an completely unskilled, weak pansy-assed cipher on his own. It is impossible for them to sever off Gonzo at this point. It had to be Rove.

[NOBODY FROM NOWHERE]

Shouldn't someone in the excellent Neofascist Controlled Media (NCM) be asking Bush why he accepted Turd Blossom's resignation when he refused to accept so many other resignations (Rummy etc)?

[bmaz]

One other point. There is no reason in the world that Rove should still have his security clearance. It should be demanded that he drop that in the plastic bin on the way out before the door hits him in the ass.