The Liz Cheney Presidency

by emptywheel

desertwind was the first to point me to Sally Quinn's column on a GOP Plan to Oust Cheney. And like desertwind, my first thoughts when I read Quinn's prediction that Cheney would step down with heart trouble and Fred Thompson would replace him--if Quinn is right, this is really an attempt to install another figurehead president controlled by someone named Cheney.

Most importantly, though, I have imagined that Thompson is the GOP's best chance to replicate the un-American structure of the Bush Presidency, where all the major decisions appear to be made in the margins, by Cheney, all the while Cheney protects himself by invoking his creative theories of being a fourth branch of government. You see, I'm really beginning to believe that Thompson is in so that those committed to continuing the basic policies of the Bush Administration can do so, once again behind the facade of a puppet president.

And then I read this:

Politico's Mike Allen told NPR that Fred Thompson has a notable foreign policy advisor: first daughter of the OVP, Liz Cheney.

If I'm right, then Quinn's column is nothing more than set-up, the first in a series of columns claiming Dick Cheney was ousted, when all the while Dick retains a tight grip on power through his most trusted advisor, Liz Cheney.

The question is, would it work. As a former Senator, Thompson would have an advantage for Senate confirmation, particularly with Holy Joe in the GOP's back pocket. And since the one other Senate presidential candidate--McCain--is hemorrhaging support, it's not clear that he could stop Thompson (particularly now that he has broken with Hagel).

In either case, don't fall for Quinn's claim that Cheney is being "ousted." If Thompson ends up as Veep, you can be sure there will still be a Cheney pulling the strings, even if the power is once removed.

Comments

[kaleidescope]

Under the 25th Amendment, the prospective Vice-President must be confirmed by BOTH houses of Congress.

[Mimikatz]

I don't know whether I like this theory better than the idea that the articles are meant to try to forestall war with Iran.

This isn't the country of my birth, childhood, adolescence or young adulthood. Those who will have to live in it for another 50 years better get cracking on putting a stop to this drift into fascism.

Thanks for spreading the word.

[emptywheel]

Those who will have to live in it for another 50 years better get cracking on putting a stop to this drift into fascism.

Um, thanks, Mimikatz. I think.

Though I gotta say I've never expected to live to old age.

[Ishmael]

EW - it's hard to keep up with you this morning! EPUd from downstairs:

Sally Quinn suggests that if Cheney is somehow bounced, Fred Thompson would be appointed vice president, because "everyone loves Fred". Uh huh. They seem to think that the Democrats would have to approve any replacement for Dick. I was struck by the following from Wikipedia on Spiro Agnew:

".....By mid-1971, Nixon concluded that Spiro Agnew was not "broad-gauged" enough for the vice-presidency. He constructed a scenario by which Agnew would resign, enabling Nixon to appoint Treasury Secretary John Connally as vice president under the provisions of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. [1] By appealing to southern Democrats, Connally would help Nixon create a political realignment, perhaps even replacing the Republican party with a new party that could unite all conservatives. Nixon rejoiced at news that the vice president, feeling sorry for himself, had talked about resigning to accept a lucrative offer in the private sector. Yet while Nixon excelled in daring, unexpected moves, he encountered some major obstacles to implementing this scheme.

John Connally was a Democrat, and his selection might offend both parties in Congress, which under the Twenty-fifth Amendment had to ratify the appointment of a new vice president. Even more problematic, John Connally did not want to be vice president. He considered it a "useless" job and felt he could be more effective as a cabinet member. Nixon responded that the relationship between the president and vice president depended entirely on the personalities of whoever held those positions, and he promised Connally they would make it a more meaningful job than ever in its history, even to the point of being "an alternate President." But Connally declined, never dreaming that the post would have made him president when Nixon was later forced to resign during the Watergate scandal."

If Dick were somehow made to disappear, what "Democrat" might be an appealing caretaker VP? Feel the Joementum anyone? :)

[Frank Probst]

I'm not entirely sure that the Republicans would be willing to risk a serious confirmation battle, even if Cheney were to simply drop dead as opposed to being dragged under the bus. The government is quite capable of functioning without a Vice-President, so the Dems would have little to lose by dragging their feet. If Bush cries and stomps his feet about how important it is, the Dems can schedule a confirmation vote right after they're done with a bill to end the war in Iraq. There are also some obvious legal issues that would need to be clarified, such as which branch of government the Veep is a part of. And I don't think the Dems are stupid enough to confirm a "front-runner" for the Presidency in 2008 (although they could surprise me on this).

And I still don't think Thompson is all-that-and-a-bag-of-chips. He's basically George W Bush with a trophy wife. That's why the base, which has more than a few racist sexist old white men, loves him to death. It's also why the general electorate is going to be lukewarm to him, at best. (Remember all those soccer moms we used to hear about? The trophy wife is going to be a BIG turnoff for them.)

[Frank Probst]

P.S. Did anyone else catch the not-so-subtle dig at Mary Cheney's baby at the end of Quinn's column?

[Mimikatz]

Why would the Sems approvwe Fred Thompson when, by keeping the office vacant, they keep Nancy Pelosi the next in line?

And why would they confirm a Pres candidate like Fred Thompson, who would then run as VP against the Dem nominee?

This isn't 1973 any more, and Fred is no Gerald Ford. If there is any such scenario, and I don't so much doubt the Cheney part of it, the Dems aren't going along.

You are doing your part, EW--more than your part. It's everyone else I want to jack up.

[Mimikatz]

Sorry, that's Dems approve FT.

[4jkb4ia]

I caught a reference to Mary Cheney's baby. I don't know if it would have been written differently for a heterosexual couple. "expanding family" is fairly neutral.

[OldCoastie]

so, do ya think that after the kabuki and Cheney is gone, Bush retires, leaving Thompson in the presidency so that he is now the incumbent when the election rolls around?

that might work for 'em...

[4jkb4ia]

I agree with Mimikatz :) If Fred Thompson is the best candidate for the Republican base, it would be stupid to give him any more time in government, even as a figurehead. I sustain that Joe Lieberman would be perfect for the job.

[Frank Probst]

"expanding family" is fairly neutral.
-----------------------------
Out of context, yes. But in context, no. It's like saying a black man "articulate". Quinn wouldn't have dreamed of making this comment if Cheney's fifth grandchild had a heterosexual mother.

[Frank Probst]

I sustain that Joe Lieberman would be perfect for the job.
-------------------------
I understand the sentiment, but I have to disagree. The biggest dangers over the next year and half are the ones that can't be easily reversed when Presidents Bush and Cheney leave office. Number one on the list is a war of choice with Iran. Lieberman is one of the few people who might be worse than Cheney on this issue.

[AJ]

If Fred Thompson is the best the GOP can come up with as a presidential candidate, the Democrats ought to be jumping for joy. Not only is he not very bright -- he's lazy on top of it. I foresee a candidacy filled with "What the candidate meant to say was ... let me clarify the candidate's position on that important topic ... by that, the candidate didn't mean to imply...".

[emptywheel]

I agree with everything you wrote, Frank, including that comment about Mary's baby. It's as if Mary got knocked up or something--the snide comment about expanding families.

[Sojourner]

Gee, a government without Dick? It is sure nice to think about...

However, this all assumes that he would leave voluntarily. What's to say that he won't tell John Warner "F*ck you!"?

[Frank Probst]

M'lady honors me with her attention. {Bows}

Totally OT, but you brought it up: If you're interested in a good book about getting older, check out Armistead Maupin's "Michael Tolliver Lives". It's sort of a sequel to his "Tales of the City" novels. The gay sex scenes are a bit graphic, but I think he does a great job of capturing the transition from youth to middle age.

[Frank Probst]

What's to say that he won't tell John Warner "F*ck you!"?
---------------------
What's to say he hasn't already? I'll bet you a dollar to a doughnut that John had an urgent "You've got mail!" message this morning.

[William Ockham]

This whole scenario makes less sense than Tom Maguire's latest fantasy. I have a good a chance as Fred Thompson does of becoming Bush's Vice President.

[snow camp]

Marcy,

This is a bit conspiratorial. Liz Cheney is not that powerful, and would be even less so without her dad. Fred Thompson is not a willing puppet, either. Also, what does Sally Quinn really know about anything, other than how to eavesdrop on cocktail party chit chat?

If Cheney were to step down (and who or what short of impeachment could make him do that anyway?), a more plausible scenario would be a respected statesman type who isn't runnning in 2008 (or Lieberman, I suppose). Lugar probably took himself out of the running for that last night. How about John Warner or Alan Simpson? James Baker?

If such a man were in place, I suppose we could dream about getting W to resign also. Or maybe impeachment would become possible, given that we'd have a respected caretaker Republican replacement, possibly acceptable to enough Senate Republicans that they could vote for conviction. In that event, maybe W would quit first, like Nixon did.

One way or another, Cheney first, then Bush. We have to try to end this regime.

[emptywheel]

snow camp

I agree that Warner is by far the most likely acceptable Republican. If Quinn's column is anything, it's an attempt to favor seeding the Presidency with the next vacuous figurehead.

[demtom]

First of all, it's a nit-pick, but let's slap the WP editors (and Quinn) for calling 1973 "the last days of Watergate". I guarantee, Barry Goldwater was saying no such thing in '73, at least eight months before the Senator's eventual trip to the White House.

I think emptywheel, in her last comment, hits what I think is the essential nugget in this: the desire of the DC establishment to somehow undo the massively unpopular mess that is the Bush administration and set up another GOP president (with the same power base in charge). Everything I know about political history tells me the Republicans have close to zero chance of holding the presidency in '08, but a media-adored figure in the vice-presidency (maybe even ascending to the presidency, if they want to get super-cute) is their best shot.

Two things unspoken but powerful in Quinn's piece: 1) Republicans are even now simply lavished with praise by her crowd -- Gerry Ford deified in retrospect, Thompson wildly sanitized today; 2) Like David Broder, she doesn't even consider the possibility a Democrat might do something to fix things. No two-party system for her.

[JEP]

They have already prepped Condie Rice for the job, and in this matter, Bush might actually be the REAL decider. We all know they've got chemistry between them, and the only way W can save his shattered historic legacy in any way is if he were to be the first president to appoint a black AND a woman as VP.

I thought it was coming a while back, right after the Libby trial turned the fickle finger of accusation back towards Deadeye. But now it appears that Cheney's crew isn't ready yet for that historic moment when one of Dick's convenient little blood clots gets labeled "debilitating," thereby allowing him to gracefully resign for medical reasons. When they sent Condi out on those seemingly peace-seeking missions, Cheney was right oin her heels, unraveling any consolation braids she may have wound together. It is as if there are two branches of government, one a pernicious shadow administration of pernicious book-cookers, and the other an incompetent crew of Keystone Rangers, fumbling their way through each day. Either dangerously sneaky or stupidly willful, our choices in administrations are quite limited.

Easy to see which is which.

But when all the scandal dust clears (and this recent WaPo VP power series may just stir it up thoroughly) I think we will see Condi Rice in the VP seat, they already have Negraponte, who is once again stealthily influencing our entire system, in the #2 place, poised to replace her as our Secretary of State. That is the best evidence of what I suggest.

[JEP]

On a related topic, considering the SCOTUS' latest blatant judicial activism, maybe we need a new clause in The Constitution, something about "The Separation of Cult and State."

[radiofreewill]

Cheney will step down under great duress - he's the primary suspect in The Leak - and could very well get tagged with a Treason charge for an IIPA violation. He's facing the choice of either going willingly before Gonzo resigns, or forcefully after.

Either way, he's gone.

Gonzo? Dead man walking, could be arrested at any time for unlawful political influence in the DoJ. For the moment, a useful pawn for removing Cheney.

Bush? In line for Impeachment over the firings of the USAs. There's no getting away from the Rove-Mehlman RNC back-channel e-mail and text system subpoenas - and they contain the transcript of the political fleecing of America by Bush's immoral ideologues.

It would be all too perfect as poetic justice if Bush gets caught for stealing Ohio in '04, after suppressing the Times' Wire-tapping Story and the SSCI Reports prior to the election. The Nation will have no problem seeing for themselves that people who are willing to 'win at all costs' are usually Criminals.

Bush will resign before getting impeached - it's the only thing someone who said God told him to invade Iraq can do.

But, first, let's take care of Cheney.