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June 27, 2007

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Made for a good headline, but the numbers were underwhelming.

Is this any different from past polls of young people?

I think in general people become more conservative as they grow older.

It is not true that people become conservative as they grow older, or rather only slightly so.

One problem is whether one is measuring one age group as the population, so to speak, moves through time, getting older, or measuring a particular cohort as they get older.

The Boomers were more liberal as young people and even though they got a little more conservative, they generally stayed more liberal. Gen X came of age during Reagan, as I said, and they stayed more conservative as the generation aged. They (along with the last-wave Boomers) are the most conservative now, more so even than older people.

Studies show that if someone votes for a party three times in their 20s and 30s, they pretty much stay there for life.

One more thing--If you read the Media Matters report, it shows a very consistent pattern on issue after issue--the public as a whole was more conservative in 1982, got progressively more liberal from 1984 to 1986, became more conservative in 1994-1996, then has been getting more liberal since 1996.

So on a typical question like whether government should reduce spending on things like health and education to save money or spend more on such things, there was a +8 conservative edge in 1982, +15 liberal in 1986, +8 conservative in 1994 and then shot up to +15 liberal in 1998 and is now +23 liberal.

My analysis is that when the GOP wins elections, they gain adherents. But when they actually try to put their consrvative ideas into practice, they lose adherents. Now, with the worst of both worlds (abandoning small gov't and not providing services) they are hemorrhaging support.

Here's the NY Times cross-generational poll data that shows the party affiliation of those who turned 20 during each administration since FDR. It shows that even within generations, what is happeneing when one comes of age exerts a big influence, sometimes positive and sometimes negative. Most reliable Dems came of age during Truman, Nixon-Ford and Bush II. Most reliable GOPers came of age during Eisenhower and Reagan/Bush I.

Young people are definitely more progressive, and I consider that good news.

Troll, maybe in your family they get more conservative. In mine, people get more liberal.

I'm one of those straddlers. The cause for optimism in the Iraq war likely stems from ignorance of history and of regional politics, as the war planners themselves have grappled with. Steve Gilliard did much to educate me on these matters, but I suspect most my age don't even know the differences between Sunni/Shiite.

As far as growing more conservative with age, this doesn't appear to give the GOP any confidence for the future. I recall a Jon Stewart interview with a conservative who candidly acknowledged that the party is losing the battle of momentum against progressive values such as tolerance and equality. I think this partly explains their megalomaniacal power grabs, including redistricting, legislated vote surpression, stacking the DOJ, Supreme Court, etc. Of course they'd try to do those things regardless of their situation in power, but their executing with the kind of efficiency and solidarity you find in a fight to the death.

I do believe we are witnessing the slow-motion death of the GOP, especially the neocon movement.

It really looks bad demographically for the GOP, but one good election could move things for them. But it doesn't look like they have any top-tier candidates who could give good government even of the Eisenhower or GBI level, so that they could consolidate gains. Demographically and geographically, the GOP is moving towards a box canyon. The Dems prospects are so much better than they seem to realize. I really wish they would let it give them the courage to really lead, because I think thay can win in a showdown with Bush and Big Dick.

hey shit stain, where's your Congressiona popularity poll now, you piece of shit

More than half of Americans ages 17 to 29 — 54 percent — say they intend to vote for a Democrat for president in 2008. They share with the public at large a negative view of President Bush, who has a 28 percent approval rating with this group, and of the Republican Party. They hold a markedly more positive view of Democrats than they do of Republicans.

wanna tell me more about that "permanent repuglican majority" that kkkarl rove was building ??? what's up with that ???

the repuglican party is dying right before our eyes, and the shit stain wants to use a generic congressional poll to confuse people about America's attitude towards Democrats

well, you just got the NEWS, shit stain

They hold a markedly more positive view of Democrats than they do of Republicans

do you know what that means, shit stain ???

it means a BIG Democratic win in 2008 (or maybe you think Iraq is somehow get better) and probably another BIG Democratic win in 2012

it only took you 2 months to think of a pathetic lie to explain why scooter lied. I wonder how long it's gonna take you to develop a pathetic lie to explain why this is bad news for the Democrats

you're up, shit stain

splain to me that ...

I have clearly become more liberal with age and maturity. In my 20s I was a dyed in the wool Libertarian. Now I recognize that there is a major role for government to play in ensuring a strong social infrastructure that enables the people to become more productive and competitive. Private industry cannot invest for the very long haul - 30-50 years. Only taxpayers can invest to build a strong public infrastructure - transportation, education, health care, safety nets, defense, rule of law, even playing fields. This then accrues to the benefit of all citizens to innovate and compete.

The Dems have yet to fully recognize that the wind is behind their sails. They are like most - generals fighting the last war - conditioned by the Reagan/Bush I years and Clinton's triangulation. Hopefully, they'll realize that they won big last Nov precisely because the addressed the elephant in the room (although they came to it kicking and screaming) - the occupation of Iraq - and did not run away as they did in 2002. If they learn from it that if they stand up vigorously for liberal principles and fight head on with purpose the authoritarianism that Bush/Cheney and the Repubs represent they will get a mandate for a generation.

while the democrats might not recognize that the wind is in their favor, some pretty prominent repuglicans are starting to wake up to the disaster that george bush is leading the repuglican party to

William F Buckley, George Voinovich, Richard Lugar

the list of wild eyed liberals is getting longer and harded to accept as reality

maybe Voinovich, Lugar, and Buckley ain't really the fools in the repuglican party

America is starting to realize that

if we have to decide who really IS being a Patriotic American and who is a terrorist loving traitor, and William F Buckley, George Voinovich, and Richard Lugar are on OUR side, who do you think America is going to label TRAITORS ???

karma is a bitch, and the repuglicans got karma all over their ass right now

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