Hold > Get Agency to Answer That ...

by emptywheel

In a post earlier this week, I showed how—on the same day that Scooter Libby recorded that President Bush was interested in the Kristof column and the Wilson allegations—OVP started doing a bunch of research into Wilson's trip.

In this post, I'm going to speculate about a few more chronological details, arguing that Libby’s calls to Robert Grenier on June 11 were an attempt to get him to say on the record things that Libby already knew, but couldn’t otherwise use.

We still have no idea when Cheney told Libby that Plame worked at CPD. The note recording that event is dated June 12, but Libby admits he wrote the date and the description—“telephone VP re "Uranium in Iraq" –Kristof NYT article”—after the fact. And then he subsequently changed that date, so the dating on this is of little assistance.

But the original note seems to record a conversation between Cheney and Libby in which Cheney passed on some unfortunate news from CIA. There was some truth in the allegations Wilson made in the Kristof article—the CIA did consider the Wilson trip as a response to the Cheney request. In addition, Cheney learned the following tidbits of information:

•  CounterProliferation (CPD) sent Wilson
•  Wilson's wife works in CPD
•  OVP and Defense and State expressed a strong interest in the Niger intelligence

The news that Wilson was sent at OVP’s behest is bad news for Libby and Cheney, because it means damage control is going to be more difficult. They can't just say Wilson is wrong on all counts, because CIA backs up his claim that Wilson was sent at Cheney's behest. With that in mind Cheney and Libby brainstorm talking points to respond. At first, they brainstorm three talking points. OVP:

•  Didn't know about the mission
•  Didn't get a report back [from CIA]
•  Didn't have any indication [the documents were forgeries until the IAEA told them]

But then Libby sees one of the extraneous pieces of information Cheney shared—the news that OVP and Defense and State all expressed an interest in the intelligence. Wouldn't it be a good idea, Libby seems to say, to tell people that OVP wasn't the only Department interested in the Niger intelligence?

Cheney responds that they should "hold > Get agency to answer that." That CIA should have to say it, not OVP.

In his grand jury testimony, Libby claims the conversation happened in preparation for the Pincus article—which appears true. There's one talking point in the Pincus article that wasn't in Cheney and Libby's talking points—that an "aide" raised this issue. This is a lie, as the notes from Cheney's briefing makes clear, since Cheney, not an aide, asked about the trip. It is a lie that Pincus confirmed came from Libby. But it does admit, kind of, the most damaging piece of news OVP learned from Cheney’s source: that OVP was behind Wilson’s trip.

But two of the other three talking points do show up on Pincus' article.

The CIA's decision to send an emissary to Niger was triggered by questions raised by an aide to Vice President Cheney during an agency briefing on intelligence circulating about the purported Iraqi efforts to acquire the uranium, according to the senior officials. Cheney's staff was not told at the time that its concerns had been the impetus for a CIA mission and did not learn it occurred or its specific results [didn't know about the mission, didn't get a report back].

Cheney and his staff continued to get intelligence on the matter, but the vice president, unlike other senior administration officials, never mentioned it in a public speech. He and his staff did not learn of its role in spurring the mission until it was disclosed by New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof on May 6, according to an administration official.

But the line about State and DOD is missing. From this, it's likely that the talking points were drafted in preparation for the Pincus article, but that OVP was unable to get CIA to tell Pincus that OVP and State and DOD were interested in the Niger intelligence before he wrote his article (or, perhaps, that Pincus simply didn’t believe that, though if it had come from CIA, I don't know why he wouldn't have believed that).

In other words, the days leading up to June 12 appear to have been an unsuccessful attempt to get CIA to publicly announce that OVP and State and DOD were all interested in the Niger intelligence.

That tension may provide some clue as to when and what happened with Cathie Martin’s conversations that week, particularly when we look at how Cathie Martin was working on the story on June 11. We know that Martin emailed Jenny Mayfield at 2:32 on June 11 saying she needed some time with him on the Pincus article that afternoon. But she also appears to have spoken to Libby about the Wilson stuff another time that day. Libby's calendar shows a 20 minute meeting between Martin, Libby, and Cheney at 1:05PM (just after a Deputies Committee meeting at which Grossman likely told Libby of Plame's CIA employ). But we know that Libby called Robert Grenier for more information at 1:15 PM that day—precisely halfway into the meeting. Presuming the calendar is accurate, Libby called Robert Grenier in the presence of Cheney and Martin, looking for information he likely already knew (from Grossman and almost certainly from Cheney). That suggests Cheney, Martin, and Libby discussed how to respond to Pincus, and that (presumably not telling Martin of the details they were after) they called Grenier for the missing piece: An on-the-record statement saying that State and DOD had been interested in the intelligence as well.

Libby didn't get Grenier immediately. Instead, Grenier called back around 2, learned what Libby was looking for, did some research, and prepared an answer: Valerie sent Joe, Plame worked in CPD, and DOD and State were also interested in the intelligence. Will CIA be willing to say the last bit publicly? Libby asked. I don’t see why not, Grenier said, have your press person speak to my press person. This leads to a conversation between Harlow and Martin. Perhaps Harlow agrees to make a statement—but if he does, it comes too late for the Pincus article. Also, such a statement doesn’t make it into Martin’s talking points on Wilson that she was still using almost a month later.

There seem to be two explanations for this: either the Cheney note is actually a note from Libby's conversation with Grenier (remember, he wrote "VP" sometime after he wrote the note itself). Or, OVP already had the talking points set up—and they had just called Grenier to try to solicit this information out of him. Perhaps, even, they were trying to make sure Cathie Martin learned of the information Cheney already knew, but via a third party source that couldn’t be traced back to the Vice President.

I lean toward the latter—it seems highly unlikely that Libby would have made up the conversation with Cheney and stuck to that story over four years and a trial. Which means the Libby-Cheney conversation happened sometime before the Grenier conversation (and therefore further suggests that, as has been assumed all along, Cheney was indeed Libby’s first source for Plame’s identity). And the Grenier conversation was simply an attempt to set somebody up to tell Libby, Martin, and the press the same information via a different source.

This suggests something critically important about the Libby-Cheney conversation, or at least about Cheney’s source for the information that Plame worked in CPD. Whoever or however Cheney learned of Plame’s identity, Cheney was unable to just go back to that source and get that person to confirm to the press that State and DOD had also been interested in the Niger intelligence. Remember, Libby has suggested that Tenet told Cheney of Plame’s ID. But if Tenet did, then for some reason Cheney couldn’t just call Tenet back up to tell him to tell Pincus that State and DOD were also interested in the Niger intelligence. Or perhaps Libby’s statement—which he never presented as definite—served to distract from Cheney’s real source. Perhaps Cheney’s source shouldn’t have had that information. Or perhaps Cheney’s source, if revealed, would prove that Cheney knew Plame was covert.

In any case, it appears from the detail that Cheney and Martin were present when Libby called Robert Grenier that they needed Grenier to reconfirm something Cheney and Libby already knew.

Comments

[Darclay]

Great article EW I think you smacked the nail hard on Cheney being behind all of this. "source shouldn’t have had that information. Or perhaps Cheney’s source, if revealed, would prove that Cheney knew Plame was covert".

[freepatriot]

the Grenier conversation was simply an attempt to set somebody up to tell Libby, Martin, and the press the same information via a different source.

prove that and you have an IIPA conviction in the bag

that machination is proof that cheney knew it was a crime to release Valerie Plame's identity, and that he created a criminal conspiricy to do his dirty work

[albert fall]

"Or perhaps Cheney’s source, if revealed, would prove that Cheney knew Plame was covert."

Occam's razor.

CIA has been on both sides of the question in Plame's outing....They asked for the investigation (as a show, to comfort agency employees who were angry/concerned about outing an agent?), then confirmed only post-trial that Plame was covert (giving the administration room to run its "no underlying crime" disinformation campaign). Your explanation that a George Tenet-type was Cheney's source and didn't want to become known makes perfect sense.

[Canuck Stuck in Muck]

I've previously speculated as to the possibility that Cheney and Co. were unble to conceive of the 'wife' as an undercover agent, because of their profound sexism. So, I have to equivocate, and suggest that, PERHAPS, Cheney's source said nothing about her 'statusl at the time she was identified as "the wife," which meant that Cheney didn't find out until after the cat was out of the bag. If it was Tenet, and he neglected to inform Cheney of her 'status,' the VP would surely have known that to expose Tenet as the source would put Tenet in jeopardy for not 'protecting' her status by telling him it was classified information. But even without that as a concern, Cheney would have known that he didn't have a "need to know" her or her status, so whoever told him would have been in trouble for disclosing that information. I'd like to think that Cheney knew all along, which'd make him a felon, but by keeping 'mum' and arranging for someone else to reveal Valerie's identity, he was protecting himself and his source, regardless of who it was, and when it happened.
Does that make any sense?

[William Ockham]

If albert keeps using my razor, I'm going to have to grow a beard.

Seriously, I would like to posit a likely source for Mr. Cheney's knowledge of all three elements above (CPD sent Wilson,VPW works in CPD, and DOD/State Dept. interest in Niger story). Oddly enough, we have Senators Bond, Hatch, and Burr to thank for this. In their hatchet job on the Wilsons (Minority Views to the SSCI Phase II Report on Prewar Intelligence), they make the following statement:

The report was forwarded in an e-mail from a CIA reports officer to Mrs. Wilson and a number of recipients wih said that the DO had received a number of calls from the Intelligence Comminity about the Iraq-Niger uranium report, citin the Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), and SOCOM, specifically.

So, if Cheney had a copy of Valerie Plame Wilson's memo and the attached email from the CIA reports officer, he had all that information.

[Ken Muldrew]

So Libby calls Grenier in order to confirm the interest of State and DOD without burning Cheney's original source, and Grenier throws in the tidbit that Wilson's wife works in the department that sent Joe and was possibly the impetus for the trip. Do Libby and Cheney immediately decide that this is a better way to distance OVP from initiating Joe's trip? Do they think that Grenier's casual mention means that the information is widely known within CIA and is therefore likely to be leaked? Between Grenier and Rohn inadvertently mentioning Valerie to various SAOs, it seems to be just their bad luck that this particular administration had a penchant for criminal mendacity.

[nolo]

great cheney speculation, here,
EW -- as always, i come here to
learn -- and i leave, always having
some new insight. . . thanks!

so -- let me offer you one, in return:

i don't think i'll blog at all about it,
because the connect (on mine) to cheney
is just too tenous -- but team libby just filed
a rather significant correction (to my eye,
anyway) to their pre-sentence report libby
financial data, to wit:

libby had apparently listed his house as
being worth a cool $1.1 million on the nose.

in fact, it had been recently appraised at
$1.368 million -- and that is the real estate
tax value -- again a low-ball estimate
of its actual selling price. . .

so -- he understated the value of his
home by almost 25 percent -- i wonder
if judge walton will want to re-think
the fine amount? i dunno. maybe $300k
instead of $250k?

while the letters are dated june 4, 2007,
they just turned up on PACER as document
361 -- of course, the case no. is 1:05-cr-00394.

[i just sent your mailbox a PDF of the filing.]

happy muck-raking, here!

s m i l e. . .

oh, yes -- i'm lovin' it!

[Woodhall Hollow]

Well, you have just cleared up one of the most confusing aspects of the Libby trial testimony--which was why Libby was making calls to CIA officials about Plame, if he already knew it from Cheney.

It never occurred to me it was cover-Cheney's-ass time.

Alan Simpson seems to have written the most authentic letters of them all. Libby is Loyal (capitlized and underlined). And his conviction and sentencing has emblazoned the words "The Good Soldier" upon his brow.

You did a great job yesterday--live blog typing all that legalese could not have been easy at all. But I really appreciated being able to follow all of it in almost real time.

[emptywheel]

William

Yup, that's precisely where I'm going with this--nice catch.

Though with the cable to the overseas location, they'd have it in one document. Here's what we know it to say:

both State and DOD have requested additional clarification [of the Niger-Iraq uranium report] and indeed, the Vice President's office just asked for background information.

You don't even need the reports officer.

DAmn you, now you've spoiled my next post!!

It's a NOC leak in a box, basically.

[Woodhall Hollow]

Abramoff update! Another Abramoff croney bites the dust--Italia has entered a guilty plea to tas evasion AND obstruction of justice!

Wonder if she will have to spill some serious beans in exchange for that obstruction plea?

[lolo]

EW, I just wanted to thank you for being our eyes and ears at the court and hearing yesterday. The live blog was so exciting. I especially liked your description of Judge Walton rolling his eyes, looking at the ceiling etc. I knew in my heart that Reggie would do the right thing. After the hearing was over I was so excited. Finally they were asking tough to the point questions. It was so refreshing to see some progress. Afer it was over I was watching everyone leaving. You never know what might happen, mics left on, questions asked by reporters. I was watching and then I saw you stand up. I laughed so hard,clapping jumping up and down. Did you hold the Judiciaries feet to the fire? Is that why it was so productive? (HA!) Thanks so much for everything.

lolo

[Frank Probst]

Canuck: Not really. You're assuming that Dick Cheney wouldn't fuck over George Tenet to save his own skin. That's quite a stretch.

[Frank Probst]

So has anyone else noticed that the WaPo's editorial page has been (briefly, I'm sure) stunned into silence by the Libby verdict? The silence is a bit eerie.

[ab initio]

Fitz is still special counsel which means he can continue to pursue leads but he seems to imply that due to Scooter's obstruction he is at a dead end. Is there any new piece of information out there that could help move the ball along for Fitz?

Or can Congress do something to break the firewall - not holding my breath on that?

Bottom line is do all those that participated in the consipracy to out a covert agent go scot free to do this another day? And what about the conspiracy to lie and mislead the American people to invade Iraq based on the false pretense of Niger uranium and mushroom clouds and WMD and AQ? Will any of the top echelons who organized this conspiracy ever be held to account? Or is it like Iran-Contra where they skate to do this another day? Elliot Abrams and Poindexter anyone.

[creeper]

Marcy, thank you so much for the live-blogging yesterday. You're better than television.

I have an off-the-wall question for you...is there any way Rove could've been involved in this? Somehow the whole outing episode just smacks of KKKarl.

[Gary]

The cons all want a pardon. But what if Bush finally had a chance to rid himself of this meddlesome Cheney, hang the failures of his administration around his neck, and throw him to the wolves?

Let me be clear, if the firewall had held, this would never be a consideration. But Scooter and BigTime both failed the Boy King. And President Pissypants's legacy is looking pretty grim at the moment.

I think Scooter will be left out to dry.

[dolso]

EW, I think you are on to something. It is becoming clear that the big Dick was behind everthing and he needed a cover story. I think Fitz is on to him as well. He could be had if Scooter would come clean, but that seems very unlikely.

Interesting speculation that Tenet was Cheney's source. It it possible that Tenet and Cheney may have had damning information on each other that worked to protect both parties. I would also guess that there is no love loss between them.

[desertwind]

Gary @ 18:2a, I actually doubt the neo-cons want a pardon. These calls for pardon are just for show. They're separating themselves from Bush and don't want to be beholden to him in any way. They're already setting themselves up for post-Bush administration, which they can see won't be Repub, and they're already blaming Bush for the failures of their big dreams.

I doubt Libby wants a pardon, either. He'd like to stay out of jail, of course, and probably hopes for appeal overturn, but, if he has to go, that only increases his value as "Good Soldier" for a greater cause. A little jail-time would increase his cache with these guys and adds to his vision of himself as a great man. And, of course, he'll be rolling in neo-con largesse no matter what happens.

Bush doesn't want to pardon Libby "now" because it does Bush no favors and doesn't fit into the character he thinks of himself as, Mr. Tough Guy. He might do it at the end of his term after Libby served some time and Bush can call it "compassion".

I wonder what Libby's wife thinks of all this. Letters from neighbors, etc, were compelling and it's obvious Libby has a charming side. Surely Harriet Grant is starting to realize these neo-cons are not true friends. On the other hand, perhaps she's accepted that being likeable isn't enough for Libby. That he has to be "great". Perhaps she also likes that in him and is willing to play along. We'll see what happens when the prison doors close shut.

[Neil]

OT - David Corn writes about Fred Thompson's take on Scooter Libby... and Republican Presidential candidates' answer to the question of a pardon. Fred and Scooter

[oldtree]

there is one obvious reason why cheney told libby. remember that they had to destroy the iraq and iranian intelligence gathering operations to control information their propaganda campaign about the war. wonder if anyone else in her operational group has been contacted? wonder what tenet might have done to screw up her group's investigation during that period on orders of cheney? I keep wondering if we have wrongly concluded she was targeted only after her husband spoke up and made them respond?
perhaps there are other people aware of the inquiries, and perhaps, interference by higher ups at CIA, or OVP? they may not have cared about her when they first got her name in their list of operatives from their cooperative CIA people in reference to who investigates what they had to hide. these pissy little people probably did destroy her just to cripple the search, and to put fear in the hearts of any agent that would dare speak up. they were happy to the Nth degree when they got to harm Joe and Valerie at the same time

[tekel]

Frank: on Cheney burning Tenet, my thoughts exactly. Especially after they made Tenet fall on his sword for the 16 words- why not pin the NOC leak on him too?

What is Tenet holding over Cheney's head?

[Woodhall Hollow]

What is Tenet holding over Cheney's head?

I would say likely an awful lot.

Like maybe the full details of how Cheney not only twisted but invented intelligence as part of his PR strategy to see an occupation of Iraq(Niger forgeries????)? Wanna bet that "some" at the CIA know the entire sordid story of how they came to be etc?

[behindthefall]

The convolutions make my head hurt, but FWIW, my take has been that Amb. Wilson, Nigeria, and yellowcake are distractions: they figured in the execution of the outing operation but were not motivating factors.

Rather, Cheney would have known very well who was in charge of the team establishing the WMD intelligence for Iraq; he would have made it his business to know. Since that person was the very capable and principled VPW and could neither be bought nor coerced, she had to go.

VPOTUS tried to run an outing operation against the CIA, but he is turning out not to have been perfect in planning or execution.

[KLynn]

EW, thank you for all your amazing efforts yesterday!

EW and William- if your conclusions are correct (which I agree they are) could this be enough to bring additonal charges against the "obvious" individuals?

It's a Wizard Of Oz moment of sorts, except we have more evidence of the "man behind the curtain" with your suggested construct...

[Maybeex]

The news that Wilson was sent at OVP’s behest is bad news for Libby and Cheney, because it means damage control is going to be more difficult. They can't just say Wilson is wrong on all counts, because CIA backs up his claim that Wilson was sent at Cheney's behest.

Where are you getting that?
Where is your source saying the CIA backs up Wilson's claim that he was sent at Cheney's BEHEST?