What I Think Happened

by emptywheel

This is going to be really quick--but there's a lot of confusion about where there are smoking guns and where there are not. So I'm going to lay out what I think went on in May-July 2003. It's speculative, but this is the picture we're beginning to see.

The first response we know of came in May. There was the Kristof article which passed little noticed. But when Pincus--with his good sources at CIA--came sniffing around, OVP got worried. In late May Libby started his research, starting with Grossman. He learned of Wilson and Plame from Grossman, then he got Grenier involved--calling him out of a meeting with the DCI--and he kept getting this information. It now appears that after Grenier (who learned of Plame from someone in Plame's group) and Cathie Martin (who learned of Plame via Harlow) told Libby and Cheney, the latter went to figure out precisely what Plame did at CIA. Which is how he figured out she worked in CPD. If Fitz can prove that, it's damning--it'd suggest that Cheney learned Plame worked at CIA and then made a point of figuring out where, what she did.

One more thing--it now seems clear that Cheney and Libby linked the Wilsons with the complaint reported in Pincus' June 12 article that Cheney was twisting arms at CIA. Those happened at the same time, so it's not surprising that Cheney would think they were connected. And therefore be that much more aggressive against CIA.

But it seems like when they learned that Plame was CPD (read, covert), they backed off. Thus the conversation with Eric Edelman. They didn't back off entirely--they sent Judy Miller looking for more dirt just days after Libby told Edelman there were problems about going after Plame. But they didn't yet decide to leak Plame.

Until the op-ed.

That's when--it seems very very likely--Cheney ordered Libby to launder Plame's identity through Judy Miller in a very secret leak on July 8. Heck--was Libby's hush hush conversation to Ari on July 7 a set-up so that when people went looking they'd find the info that was about to be leaked to Judy?

At the same time, Hadley was panicking because (I'm increasingly convinced) he and Libby actually had seen the report from Wilson's trip--and had used it to defend their Niger case. So while Libby and Cheney were going after Plame's ID (and the NIE), Hadley was kicking the communicators out of the room to figure out how to bury the news that they had, in fact, seen Wilson's report. But that's a second hush hush theme to the week.

There are still some big outstanding questions. What role did Rove play? When and where did Libby and Novak speak? Was it before Novak's article? Did Libby leak Plame's covert ID, after having been given "presidential authorization" to do so? What were the later conversations with Judy about?

To be continued later this week, I guess.

Comments

[notjonathon]

Thanks for that timeline (or speculative storyline). Like so many others, I've spent the week glued to your reports (although I can't get to them until early morning JST). I want to add my appreciation to the long list.

[Jodi]

emptywheel,
I am not sure that, besides for your speculation, that shows anything more than once Cheney learns that Plame is covert, he backs off as he should have.

your quote:
"If Fitz can prove that, it's damning--it'd suggest that Cheney learned Plame worked at CIA and then made a point of figuring out where, what she did."

Nothing wrong with finding out who was involved with Wilson. Certainly not damning. Of course it does lead to the question of what he did after he found out. But again, you have said they backed off Plame when they found she was convert.

All that seems on the up and up.

Personally I wouldn't expect Cheney to attempt to "out" Plame. He only wanted to discredit Wilson and was making an attempt to find out all about him. After Mr Wilson went to the NYt, he was declared "open season." Joe and his wife must have decided that the risk was worth it to them.

:)

Of course it could be argued that you shouldn't be around Mr Cheney when he has a gun in his hands.

:)

[emptywheel]

Jodi

Did you conveniently ignore the part where Cheney ordered Libby to leak Plame's identity to Judy? Call me crazy, but I consider that pretty damning.

[Jodi]

emptywheel,

I thought that was speculation:

your quote:

"That's when--it seems very very likely--Cheney ordered Libby to launder Plame's identity through Judy Miller in a very secret leak on July 8."

[tryggth]

Well, they had a lot of information at the time of this note:

http://wid.ap.org/documents/libbytrial/jan25/GX52201.pdf

It seems likely this info came from something more comprehensive than just a trip report.

[p.lukasiak]

I thought that was speculation:

its almost all speculation, Jodi. But like the troll you are, you pick "speculation" you like and treat it as fact....

as to All that seems on the up and up.

I guess you (rather conveniently) forgot that this trial is about perjury and obstruction...

[chris]

Was Condi on the plane trip to Africa- and didn't she also push reporters pretty hard to go find out more about Wilson's trip? Who do you think tasked her to do it? Was she in on the conspiracy? In your opinion, of course.

[katie Jensen]

Yes, condi was on the place. Yes, she did push reporters to look for more on Wilson. At least I recall her saying that in a press conference or something, but I am not the expert here. Just buying time waiting for the trial notes to continue.

It's my humble opinion that the entire white house administration (whig) group was in on it. I believe that is why Bush made the announcement that "no one in my administration leaked" and also why the strange quote from Bush about "they may never find the leaker." Also think that is why Bush hired a criminal lawywer in 2003. Also think that the reference in Libby's note to Judy miller refers to the conspiracy...roots are joined...blah, blah, blah. I think he's referring to the idea that they must all tell the same story in order to keep the administration safe. Just my opinions...now back to the trial.

[chris]

Defense at the trial is trying to imply that Cheney was pissed because news reports were implying that OVP asked to have Wilson sent to Niger to check out the yellowcake rumors.
Cheney personally writes the talking points wrt to the Wilson allegations and Cooper didn't use the full quote that Martin had given him and that upsets them.

Hmmm....doesn't it seem all out of proportion for the OVP to worry if it was or wasn't the VP's question that spurred the CIA to send someone to check out a rumor about Iraq trying to obtain yellowcake? The rumor was out there (thanks to someone seeding faulty rumors) and it was an approriate response to check it out, wasn't it? Gearing up with calls to reporters, talking points and getting Condi and others to lead reporters to seek to find out WHO sent Wilson seems a misappropriation of these important people's time.

Why didn't Cheney's office just issue a statement if they wanted to get the message out. Something like this: We don't think we were responsible for having the CIA sending someone to check out these rumors, but we are pleased to see that such rumors are checked out. That is what our CIA is suposed to do.

The ruse that they had to get so worked up to dispel the idea that THEY sent Wilson seems absurd and I hope someone calls them on it.

[tnhblog]

EW, was following your liveblogging today. You noted that Fitzgerald read part of Libby's tesimony to Martin. What was the testimony? Also Fitzgerald did not seem to bring up Cooper's testimony. Any idea why?

[tnhblog]

Martin memory is perfectly intact when she categorically testified that Libby made no mention of Plame. It suddenly becomes defective when asked about Libby's testimony and when she has no recollection of Libby's reply to Cooper's question.

[p.lukasiak]

This is libby testimony from the indictment concerning his convo with Cooper...so this is probably what he read...

Testimony Given on or about March 5, 2004 Regarding a Conversation With Matthew Cooper on or About July 12, 2003:

Q. And it's your specific recollection that when you told Cooper about Wilson's wife working at the CIA, you attributed that fact to what reporters –

A. Yes.

Q. – plural, were saying. Correct?

A. I was very clear to say reporters are telling us that because in my mind I still didn't know it as a fact. I thought I was – all I had was this information that was coming in from the reporters.

Q. And at the same time you have a specific recollection of telling him, you don't know whether it's true or not, you're just telling him what reporters are saying?

A. Yes, that's correct, sir. And I said, reporters are telling us that, I don't
know if it's true. I was careful about that because among other things, I wanted to be clear I didn't know Mr. Wilson. I don't know – I think I said, I don't know if he has a wife, but this is what we're hearing.

*********

as to why he didn't read Cooper's testimony, Martin did not hear that end of the conversation, and thus could not be a fact witness to it.

[tnhblog]

"as to why he didn't read Cooper's testimony, Martin did not hear that end of the conversation, and thus could not be a fact witness to it."

You can not say that without knowing what Cooper's testimony was. At any rate, she says categorically denies Libby talked about Plame, but conveniently does not remember Libby telling Cooper that reporters were telling him that Plame worked at the CIA. Seems like perjury to me.

[tnhblog]

Martin can remember perfectly that Libby did not mention Plame. Her memory becomes defective when asked to recollect Libby's reply to Cooper's question. She either is lying about one or the other or she has an highly selective memory that just happens to faovr her boss and herself. She can not consistently say that she remembers the one thing but not the other. In order for her testimony to be consistent, she would have had to testify that she did not recall Libby mentioning Plame. She didn't. She categorically denied it. On the other hand, if she did not hear Libby answering Cooper's question, why didn't she just testify to that? Instead she is saying she has no memory of it. But she did remember perfectly well that Libby made no mention of Plame.

[Maddy]

I haven't read all the comments here and I have this question, Is this not a treasonable offense? I was talking to someone yesterday not as angry as I who thought this was not the case..Anyone?

[the exile]

so if they knew they couldn't out Plame because she was covert, and they tried to pass it subtly on to Judy but Judy at that time was too stupid or lazy to put 2+2 together without being told, what changed everything and started the flood of explicit leaks? Am I right to presume it was Novak's publishing of what he got from Armitage? That that made Cheney and Libby and Ari and all the rest believe that they could now leak with deniability, because a reporter (if you can call Novak that) had said it first? I apologize if I've missed something already said.

[TeddySanFran]

Ari certainly seemed worried that he'd committed or observed a treasonable offense, right after reading the newspaper's description of what happened. Dead-tree media certainly has its "gotcha" moments in the visuals of this saga: Valerie reading Novakula's column, and now Ari, lawyering up with the newspaper still in his hand, thinking he'd only barely escaped into private-industry cushiness and comfort.

[paintmequick]

I recall that cheney lived at the cia for months, never learned what he learned or inserted.

What the hell was he doing?

I just figured that he had everything boiled to his satisfaction.

Bob in Petaluma

[Tnhblog]

There are other inconsistencies in CM's testimony. She testified that it was at her instigation that Cooper and Time were brought into the affair. Yet she has very little knowledge, or no memory of, almost everything Libby subsequently said to Cooper. Yet, if we go by Waas, almost the whole conversation was consumed by the topic of Plame. Martin instigated this conversation yet she claims she has no knowledge of the bulk of it.

[John Casper]

"Is this not a treasonable offense?"

I think many of us here think it is. This trial, however, is narrowly about perjury and obstruction. Fitzgerald's classic description was that a baseball umpire can't make the call at homeplate if someone throws dirt in his/her eyes. That's the point of the Libby trial. Fitz is saying, "I don't know whether to charge anyone with more serious crimes such as leaking classified information, because of the perjury and obstruction."

Christy Smith over at FDL had a nice post today about Ari's testimony about his first and only lunch with Scooter, courtesy of emptywheel's most excellent live blogging. It sure sounded to Christy, who is an attorney, as though Scooter was providing a "textbook" example of what leaking classified information looks like in the real world. That testimony is now evidence that another trial could address, but this jury is only considering charges of perjury and obstruction. HTH.

[katie Jensen]

Fl President walking toward second event. Meeting with young children who were going to sing songs. A group of reporters on the side of the road. I recall I said to these reporters, If you want to know who sent Amb Wilson to Niger, it was his wife, she works there. Tamara Lippert Newsweek, David Gregory and John Dickerson, Time Magazine.

From live blogging. Point I would like to make. The president was with him when he talked to these reporters. Do we know that the president heard him?? No, not for sure, but he sure makes the point that this info was thrown along on the plane...and quite possibly the president was very aware. That's my take on it. I'll bet there's more.

[MayBee]

ew-
With Martin come and gone, how do you propose any agreement between Cheney and Libby to leak to Judy would come into the trial at this point?
Judy wasn't in Martin's notes, so it seems only Libby and Cheney would know of such a plan- if it existed.

[LIsa]

ew-

How do Gregory, Lippert and Dickerson fit into your analysis of what happened? Were you surprised by that testimony? Having followed this whole thing together with you over the years, I never saw Gregory or Lippert mentioned by any of us speculators. Where, if at all, do they fit into the 1x2x6 article?

[LIsa]

After writing the above comment, I found this post about Dickerson from booman tribune. Who's lying?

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2007/1/29/192549/075

[pdaly]

Still catching up on today's live blog notes at Firedoglake.com but EW I wanted to turn your attention to commenter Fitzmas @ 30 on Libby Live: Addington today. His/her blog link

http://patrickjfitzgerald.blogspot.com/

has a great "Judy Judy Judy" collage that gave me a chuckle--although I assume you already have a photo picked out for tomorrow's star witness.