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January 31, 2007

The Banality of the Unitary Executive

by emptywheel

It's weird, blogging the Libby trial. I'm putting out details at such a tremendous rate all day that I have a real hard time getting the big picture--though I do get that by the time I talk it through with others here. But I do feel like I'm missing the middle ground.

Except relating to one thing. David Addington. By far the biggest surprise to me, in terms of personal impressions, is David Addington.

As I've been reminding at every opportunity, David Addington is Mr. Unitary Executive, the guy who has provided legal justification for many of Cheney's biggest power grabs: torture, extraordinary rendition, domestic spying, and so on.

I truly expected his interviews to be terribly hostile. I truly expected to see Addington bristle at every question. But that didn't happen.

Continue reading "The Banality of the Unitary Executive" »

Flu Stories: CDC Press Conference Tomorrow On Pandemic Flu Preparations

Press release from CDC on new Public Service Announcements and Community Mitigation Guidelines

Webcast
MEDIA ADVISORY - Feb 1 at 2PM Eastern time
WHO: Secretary Mike Leavitt, Department of Health and Human Services(via satellite)
  Dr. Julie Gerberding, Director, CDC
  Dr. Marty Cetron, Director, CDC Division of Global Migration andQuarantine
  Dr. Paul E. Jarris, Executive Director, Association of State and Territorial Health  Officials (ASTHO)

WHAT:  Release of two new initiatives to advance the nation's pandemic
influenza preparedness efforts: 1) new PSAs designed to encourage people to
learn more about pandemic flu and 2) New CDC guidelines for implementing
public health measures and actions in response to a pandemic (i.e.
non-pharmaceutical actions such as dismissing students from school,
voluntary isolate of ill people, and social distancing measures like
teleworking).

WHY:  The impact of pandemic influenza extends well beyond health and
medical communities into many segments of society. Developing a pandemic
influenza vaccine could take several months, and this guidance describes
strategies that may lessen the impact of pandemic influenza through the use
of public health measures that don't involve vaccines or medications (also
called non-pharmaceutical interventions). For the first time, the new CDC
guidelines illustrate how public health recommendations should or may vary
depending on the projected severity of a pandemic.

WHEN: Thursday, February 1, 2007
  2 PM, Eastern Time
  Brief remarks followed by Q&A

LISTEN-ONLY AUDIO WEBCAST
This briefing will be audio webcast.  To listen LIVE online:  

http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
The guidance document, graphics and a full transcript of this teleconference will be available following the briefing on the CDC web site at www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media.

As noted here, there's some serious planning going on. If you read the assumptions and scenario, you can understand why this belongs on a political blog (actually, because society  would be affected at every level, it belongs everywhere). USA Today will have a detailed story tomorrow about panflu prep at the fed, state and local level, though I'll be traveling and can't post on it until the weekend. For background, see this US government scenario for what's being planned (this is meant as a possible scenario for planning purposes):

Continue reading "Flu Stories: CDC Press Conference Tomorrow On Pandemic Flu Preparations" »

January 30, 2007

The Next Open Thread

What's on your mind? The war? The trial? The ignoring of Bush's interview with NPR's Juan Williams?

Williams: "By the way, in the speech, you spoke about the Democrats. You said, you congratulated the Democrat majority. And I notice your prepared text said Democratic majority. I surely think that you know that for the Democrats, they think when you say Democrat, it's like fingernails on the blackboard. They don't like it. They like you to say Democratic."

Bush: "Yeah. Well, that was an oversight then. I mean, I'm not trying to needle. Look, I went into the hall saying we can work together and I was very sincere about it. I didn't even know I did it."

More: "I'm not that good at pronouncing words anyway" (1/29). [EMILY GOODIN]

'Sup?

January 29, 2007

What I Think Happened

by emptywheel

This is going to be really quick--but there's a lot of confusion about where there are smoking guns and where there are not. So I'm going to lay out what I think went on in May-July 2003. It's speculative, but this is the picture we're beginning to see.

The first response we know of came in May. There was the Kristof article which passed little noticed. But when Pincus--with his good sources at CIA--came sniffing around, OVP got worried. In late May Libby started his research, starting with Grossman. He learned of Wilson and Plame from Grossman, then he got Grenier involved--calling him out of a meeting with the DCI--and he kept getting this information. It now appears that after Grenier (who learned of Plame from someone in Plame's group) and Cathie Martin (who learned of Plame via Harlow) told Libby and Cheney, the latter went to figure out precisely what Plame did at CIA. Which is how he figured out she worked in CPD. If Fitz can prove that, it's damning--it'd suggest that Cheney learned Plame worked at CIA and then made a point of figuring out where, what she did.

One more thing--it now seems clear that Cheney and Libby linked the Wilsons with the complaint reported in Pincus' June 12 article that Cheney was twisting arms at CIA. Those happened at the same time, so it's not surprising that Cheney would think they were connected. And therefore be that much more aggressive against CIA.

But it seems like when they learned that Plame was CPD (read, covert), they backed off. Thus the conversation with Eric Edelman. They didn't back off entirely--they sent Judy Miller looking for more dirt just days after Libby told Edelman there were problems about going after Plame. But they didn't yet decide to leak Plame.

Until the op-ed.

That's when--it seems very very likely--Cheney ordered Libby to launder Plame's identity through Judy Miller in a very secret leak on July 8. Heck--was Libby's hush hush conversation to Ari on July 7 a set-up so that when people went looking they'd find the info that was about to be leaked to Judy?

At the same time, Hadley was panicking because (I'm increasingly convinced) he and Libby actually had seen the report from Wilson's trip--and had used it to defend their Niger case. So while Libby and Cheney were going after Plame's ID (and the NIE), Hadley was kicking the communicators out of the room to figure out how to bury the news that they had, in fact, seen Wilson's report. But that's a second hush hush theme to the week.

There are still some big outstanding questions. What role did Rove play? When and where did Libby and Novak speak? Was it before Novak's article? Did Libby leak Plame's covert ID, after having been given "presidential authorization" to do so? What were the later conversations with Judy about?

To be continued later this week, I guess.

January 28, 2007

What Will Happen If We Leave Iraq?

By Mimikatz

We are all familiar with the dire prophecies of Bush, Cheney and others that withdrawal without victory in Iraq would bring about a catastrophe.  The usual response is that Iraq is already a catastrophe.  But what really is likely to happen if we begin to withdraw our troops?  Are Bush and Cheney correct?  As Emptywheel is so fond of saying, I don't really know.  But there are those with expertise who have examined the question, and, in a nutshell, they think it more likely things will improve once it is clear we are withdrawing. 

One is retired General William Odom, whose testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee I linked to yesterday.  General Odom was a military planner during the Vietnam War working on programs to train both South Vietnamese forces and locally based "popular" forces, and has extensively studied the experiences of other counterinsurgencies.  He sees the fundamental problem in Iraq as the lack of a viable government.  Loyalties are to the tribe, clan and sect leaders, not to a central government.  The government is wholly dependent for its survival on the US military and treasury.  It cannot collect taxes, for him the sine qua non of a viable government.  It cannot administer reconstruction projects and above all cannot provide security.  The country is slowly separating along ethnic lines and life is unliveable in Baghdad and many other places. 

As a consequence none of the components of the Bush "program" will work.  We cannot train troops loyal to a national government where none  exists.  Reconstruction money will line the pockets of everyone who can get it. (Providing funds for reconstruction in the absence of a government capable of administering such projects is like "trying to build a roof on a house before its walls have been erected.")  The government is on the verge of collapse.  Even if we could succeed in temporarily clearing and holding parts of Baghdad, the various combatants would eventually return and resume fighting because, after all, they are fighting over who will control their country.

So what does he believe will happen if we begin a serious withdrawal?  In the first place, far from creating more regional instability, it will have the opposite effect, because our presence is the main source of the current instability.  Regional stability was the traditional goal of American policy.

The Bush Administration has broken with this strategy [of maintaining a balance among Iranians, Arabs and Israelis] by invading Iraq and also by threatening the existence of the regime in Iran. It presumed that establishing a liberal democracy in Iraq would lead to regional stability. In fact, the policy of spreading democracy by force of arms has become the main source of regional instability.

Why will our leaving paradoxically reduce instability?  Because the neighbors and and other interested parties will begin to take responsibility.

Several critics of the administration show an appreciation of the requirement to regain our allies and others' support, but they do not recognize that withdrawal of US forces from Iraq is the sine qua non for achieving their cooperation. It will be forthcoming once that withdrawal begins and looks irreversible. They will then realize that they can no longer sit on the sidelines. The aftermath will be worse for them than for the United States, and they know that without US participation and leadership, they alone cannot restore regional stability. Until we understand this critical point, we cannot design a strategy that can achieve what we can legitimately call a victory.  (My emphasis)

These views are echoed by a number of experts in an article in today's San Francisco Chronicle, who also doubt that a wider war is really in the cards, just as "falling dominoes" did not happen after our withdrawal from Vietnam, and the Lebanese Civil War did not ultimately spread much beyond Lebanon.  Why would countries like Iran seek a wider war?  Could Sunni Arab countries really provide more than financial support?  Would the Europeans and Russians continue to avoid involvement once it was clear we were leaving?

Continue reading "What Will Happen If We Leave Iraq?" »

January 27, 2007

The Testimony Dance

by emptywheel

Understand this. Libby's team is playing a big game with their witnesses, throwing a bunch of names out there--Cheney, Bartlett, Rove, Libby, Wilson, Woodward, and about 12 journalists to be named later. I really have no idea who will testify--remember that, even if Libby's subpoenas someone, they don't have to call that person as a witness. They may have subpoenaed these people just in case, for publicity reasons, to pressure the WH for a pardon--any number of reasons that may or may not mean they'll testify. But here are some thoughts on the big four: Libby, Cheney, Rove, and Bartlett.

Libby
I love when I voice a speculation and Fitzgerald comes along a day later and agrees with me. I speculated on Wednesday that Libby's team was trying to introduce all of the CIPA material without making Libby take the stand. Later in the week, Fitzgerald validated my suspicions by expressing the same concern.

Here's why this is important. The two sides wrangled for four months to find appropriate substitutions for the classified information in the Daily Briefs which, Libby claimed, he wanted so he could demonstrate how busy he was which therefore made him forget all the leaking he was doing that week. Wells was fairly generous in his interpretation of CIPA, arguing that Libby needed anything he wanted to mount a defense. But the entire CIPA process was premised on the claim that Libby would take the stand and present it. Walton has only ruled this classified information admissible in the context of Libby explaining what the events depicted therein did to his state of mind. Throughout the rulings--such as one from November 15 that Typepad won't let me link--Walton emphasizes the centrality of Libby's testimony to the Very Important Defense.

However, the defense has affirmatively stated that the defendant intends to testify in his own behalf. It will therefore be the defendants testimony about what he was focused on and that his workday was consumed by the information [redacted--probably references Morning Daily Briefings] that makes the classified information revealed in this documents admissible under Rule 401.

This stuff is only supposed to be admissible if Libby testifies. Wells has already made it a central part of his opening statement. But, as Fitzgerald noted, they did not mention that Libby would testify, and they seem to be speaking for Libby.

As you learned a few days ago, my name is Ted Wells. And I speak for Scooter Libby. Scooter Libby is innocent. Totally innocent.

Their tactics suggest that either something has come up that has made it problematic to put Libby on the stand--or they never intended to put him on the stand, and only claimed they would to justify their graymail attempt. If Walton--who hates when people waste his time or the government's money--learns it's the latter, he will not be happy.

Continue reading "The Testimony Dance" »

January 26, 2007

What the Dems Can Do About Iraq (and Iran)

By Mimikatz

There are several very good articles out on what the Dems in Congress (and out) can do to bring about a conclusion to the Iraq War and prevent its spread into Iran.  Two are by Rick Perlstein, one in Salon and one in TNR.  For those without access to either or both, Digby has a good synopsis, with extensive quotes.

There is much to learn from history.  First, the Dems in Congress were able to change the debate on the Vietnam War in 1966 with hearings, chaired by J. William Fulbright, held by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  By exposing the false assumptions and policies underlying the war, they pushed the debate much farther than anyone thought possible and scared Lyndon Johnson.  While we are now past this point in terms of public opposition to that war, it is a useful reminder of the power of exposure.  Shine the same light on procurement and  contracting, the CPA, the missing billions etc.

Later, after Nixon had won in 1968 with his "secret plan" to end the war, Senate doves stepped up their attacks on the President's war.  While we are all used to thinking of George McGovern as the quintessential bad candidate, it is more useful to remember the role that his resolutions for withdrawal played in moving the debate to the Left.  During this period, Nixon kept promising that the end of the war was at hand, which would quiet public opinion, but then he would escalate--bombing and then invading neutral Cambodia (the infamous "incursion" into the "parrot's beak" where the North Vietnamese were supposed to have "sanctuaries" whose destruction, if we could just find them, would bring about an end to North Vietnam's successes). 

Immediately after the Cambodian invasion Senate doves rolled out three coordinated bills. (Each had bipartisan sponsorship; those were different days.) John Sherman Cooper, R-Ken., and Frank Church, D-Idaho, proposed banning funds for extending the war into Cambodia and Laos. Another bipartisan coalition drafted a repeal of the Gulf of Tonkin resolution, the congressional authorization for war that had passed 98 to 2 in 1964. George McGovern, D-S.D., and Mark Hatfield, R-Ore., were in charge of the granddaddy of them all: an amendment requiring the president to either go to Congress for a declaration of war or end the war, by Dec. 31, 1970. Walter Shapiro wrote that a "skittish" Congress made sure its antiwar legislation had "loopholes" to permit the president to take action to protect U.S. troops in the field" -- which means no genuine congressional exit mandate at all. But McGovern-Hatfield had no such "loopholes." (Of course, McGovern Hatfield didn't pass, and thus wasn't subject to the arduous political negotiating process that might have added them.) It was four sentences long, and said: Without a declaration of war, Congress would appropriate no money for Vietnam other than "to pay costs relating to the withdrawal of all U.S. forces, to the termination of United States military operations ... to the arrangement for exchanges of prisoners of war," and to "food and other non-military supplies and services" for the Vietnamese.

McGovern-Hatfield didn't pass, but Cooper-Church passed overwhelmingly, by which time US troops were out of Cambodia.  The Congress had succeeded in stopping the widening of the war, at a time when public opinion was more supportive of the war than is now the case.  And while McGovern lost the 1972 election, the Dems gained a Senate seat and House seats.  McGovern may have lost, but McGovernism did not, and without the Senate, Nixon knew he could not continue to expand the war.

The second article debunks the legend that the Dems cut off funding for the Vietnam War.  Not so.  Republicans, including Barry Goldwater, opposed further war funding at that point, but the final appropriation did include funds for the withdrawal and some for the government of South Vietnam.  Moreover, by that time Kissinger and Nixon had both concluded the war was unwinnable, and had secured a peace that briefly postponed the eventual fall of South Vietnam. 

They had gladly negotiated their peace deal under the assumption that South Vietnam would fall when the United States left. What would it have cost to keep South Vietnam in existence without an American military presence? The Pentagon, in 1973, estimated $1.4 billion even for an "austere program." Nixon and Kissinger were glad for the $700 million South Vietnam eventually got (including a couple hundred million for military aid), because their intention was merely to prop up Saigon for a "decent interval" until the American public forgot about the problem. By 1974, Kissinger pointed out, "no one will give a damn."

That turned out not to be true.  But it was Gerald Ford and the Republicans who perpetuated the myth that the Dems had cut off funding, leaving our troops stranded.

The message for today's Dems is that they need to continue to use their oversight power vigorously to expose the flaws at the core of the president's and Vice President's "strategy," making alliances with Republicans as they can.  The more Bush is forced to defend his war, the more the people see through him, and the more it becomes his--and the GOP's--war.  They need to continue to draw lines to keep the war from widening, and they will have more and more support for this position as the public realizes that Bush/Cheney are pushing yet a third Middle East war even as the other two deteriorate further.  And they need to understand the utility of having a truly radical position--withdraw the troops starting now--on the table at all times both to move the debate to the left and to attract support for more moderate positions.  Finally, they need to understand that they have more to lose if the public sees them as unable to do anything about the war.  As Perlstein says, if the GOP can cast itself as more trustworthy to wind down the war, the Dems will lose in 2008.  But if they assert themselves firmly as the ones pushing for an end to the war, they will have the majority of the public with them.  Fortunately, there are promising signs .

Beat All the Press

by emptywheel

The press saw the same thing we saw yesterday, that Cathie Martin revealed the dark underbelly of WH press strategy.

Memo to Tim Russert: Dick Cheney thinks he controls you.

But it was more than her testimony that revealed the underbelly. First, here's how I described her testimony of the notes she took from which the Russert news came.

[Martin describing the note] At top of backside her notes. Black is what the press strategy options were. Describing it:

  • MTP (putting VP on MTP), plus a pro and con of putting VP on MTP Pros: best format, we control the message, Cons: too weedy [Hey Jane!! I'm not the only one!] Too defensive, Raises the bar, meant I thought it raises the bar on the story.
  • Leak to Sanger/Pincus/Newsmag: Sanger was working on what he thought was a definitive piece, we could go to Sanger and tell him our version of this. Reporter with NYT. Pincus, WaPo, must have been writing story about his particular story. Newsmags, bc it was the end of the week, Time, Newsweek, deadlines are on Saturday.
  • Press conference with Condi or Rummy.
  • Op-ed. In my vernacular, it also can mean having a third party write one [you want to name those third parties, Cathie?]

M[artin] I [believe] Jennie Mayfield asked for a copy, and I made a copy. I'm pretty sure I gave her the original.

The piece of testimony refers to the second page of this document. The first page is the OVP draft of Tenet's statement, which I hope to get to today or tomorrow. The second page shows the notes Martin wrote when--after Libby asked her to leave his office so he could take a call from Hadley and pretend he hadn't asked Martin for advice--she jotted down as possible responses to Joe Wilson.

The document reads:

Continue reading "Beat All the Press" »

January 25, 2007

Flu Stories: Arlen Specter Says, "I Am Concerned..."

Since H5N1 is making its seasonal rounds (a new death of a 6 year old in Indonesia is being reported today, making 7 positive cases and six deaths since the beginning of January; H5 now documented in birds in Hungary, Vietnam, Thailand and Japan), it might be helpful to add some politics to the mix.
Bird flu poses as big a threat to the world as ever, and people need to worry about it more, U.S. senators and health leaders agreed on Wednesday. The H5N1 avian flu virus could cause a human pandemic at any time, killing perhaps millions, yet preparations are slow, they told a Senate hearing. Federal health officials said they were working to raise preparedness, although progress has been slowed by budget limitations and the generally poor state of public health in the United States. "I am concerned that there is not as much public awareness or concern today as there was a year ago," Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Arlen Specter told the hearing of the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on health. "You don't want to unduly alarm people. (But) I think people are unconcerned."

Continue reading "Flu Stories: Arlen Specter Says, "I Am Concerned..."" »

The Next Open Thread: Blogging Media Stars

by DemFromCT

There's a NY Times report on the gay sheep story:

Of Gay Sheep, Modern Science and Bad Publicity

The story of the gay sheep is an example of the distortion that can result when science meets the global news cycle.

John Schwartz does a nice fact-based summary of a story first posted here on TNH by emptypockets. In fact, emptypockets is intervierwed in the story:

Dr. Roselli and Mr. Newman persuaded some prominent bloggers, including Andrew Sullivan, who writes an online column for Time, to correct postings that had uncritically quoted The Sunday Times’s article. They also found an ally in the blog world: a scientist who writes under the pseudonym emptypockets and has taken up Dr. Roselli’s cause. The blogger, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he said a public stand could hurt his career, said he had been cheered by the number of bloggers who dropped their opposition when presented with the facts.

This has to be one of the first times the NY Times has quoted a pseudonymous blogger. That category is usually reserved for Senior Administration Officials like Scooter Libby.

Speaking of which, emptywheel's live blogging continues at FDL today. See also the emptywheel profile in the Ann Arbor News.

This is an open thread.

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