Updating the House Races

By Mimikatz

Tomorrow I'm off for a brief trip to the Southwest, and will check out firsthand how the Dems seem to be doing in New Mexico and Arizona.  I'm back just before the election, but I voted early just in case some factor between now and then might prevent me from casting a ballot on November 7.  Like what?  A Halloween attack on Iran?   More likely bad weather or some problem with the arilines. 

The Senate seems to have come down to 3 races, MO, TN and VA.  It looks like Menendez is ahead in NJ just enough to take it (and I think the fact that the New Jersey Supreme Court decided that the Legislature could let straights keep the magic term "marriage" if the rest of us could just have equal rights won't matter).  Harold Ford has an ad that uses a bit of humor to defuse the racist ads Corker and his allies are running, and  with the rivers of dreck running in so many districts, that, and a little bit of backlash,  will probably help him.  If Claire McCaskill gets a little help, she could win as well. 

The House has the feeling of a stream that is somewhat placid on the top but with strong currents underneath.  There seems to have been some firming up of GOP support, but the same races seem to be leaning towards the Dem column, just a little stronger with each new update by the pros. Chuck Todd analyzes five House bellwethers as a key to the race, and Bob Novak is out with a new ranking of the races. Novak sees a 20-seat Dem pickup.  Novak's thinking is shockingly closer to mine than Todd's on many races.

In the Dem column, in my view, are first the open seats in AZ-08, FL-16, and TX-22, plus the embattled incumbents in IN-08 (Hostettler), PA-07 (Weldon), PA-10 (Sherwood).  Also leaning Dem are the open seats in CO-07, FL-13, IA-01, MN-06, NY-24 (silly ads about mistakenly dialing a sex hotline are the best the GOP can do) and OH-18 (where no amount of money seems to be able to rescue Joy Padgett from Bob Ney's shadow).   Also seemingly slipping out of the GOP's grip are IN-02 (Chocola), IN-09 (Sodrel), NC-11 (Taylor), NM-01 (Wilson), NY-26 (Reynolds) OH-15 (Pryce) and PA-06 (Gerlach).  That's more than enough to elect Nancy Pelosi speaker. 

Even as the CT races look harder to handicap (despite the NY Times endorsing Dems in almost all suburban seats around NYC, with Shays in CT-04 looking the shakiest), the above races have solidified for the Dems.  Also moving more towards the Dems are the seats in KY-03 (Northrup), NH-02 (Bass), NV-02 (open), NV-03 (Porter), OH-01  (Chabot), PA-08 (Fitzpatrick), AZ-05 (Hayworth, the temple incident), and WY-AL (Cubin, who threatens wheelchair-bound Libertarian). 

By contrast, the GOP candidates look to be holding leads in KY-04 (Davis), VA-02 (Drake) and maybe FL-22 (Shaw).  No news from WI-08, but IL-06 continues to look close.

Most interesting are the races that are newly or potentially could become competitive.  Watch over the next week for polls in all the upstate NY races, as this is one major determinant whether the Dems score big gains.  Both national parties are putting money in CO-04, ID-01, OH-02 and WA-05.  Money is being raised for Scott Kleeb in NE-03.  In the Pittsburgh area, Jason Altmire is within striking distance of Melissa Hart in PA-04, and he was endorsed by the Pittsburg Post-Gazette.  There are rumors the GOP is worried about  IN-03 (Sauder).  New allegations of shady land deals have hit Rick Renzi in AZ-01. Billbray in CA-50 is only 3 points ahead of Francine Busby, and the DCCC is on the air against Pombo in CA-11, finally.  KS-02  looks a little shaky for Jim Ryun and Pat Tiberi in OH-12 is new to Todd's list.  I'm still hoping for 32 Dem House seats, but I'd settle for just over half that.

Comments

[Crab Nebula]

TN senate is so interesting. I think this campaign is a great barometer of race and politics in the U.S (will they *still* get away with the crap they've mastered and used all these years? Has anything changed in the electorate?), and one book-selling alleged candidate in '08. And another noncaucasian fellow may crush his opponent so badly Mitten Blowdry, er, Mitt Romney may be damaged.

[Ben P]

Somewhat bad news poll from Minnesota 6 - Bachmann leads Wetterling by 6 (49-43) in a new SUSA poll. Interestingly, Novak's report has this seat as a lean R. Still, despite this poll, I wouldn't want to call this either way. But if pushed, I'd say its staying GOP.

Somewhat good news poll from Tennesse Senate - from the same batch of SUSA findings, Corker and Ford are tied at 48.

I don't know right now. The way the race is shaping up in the final few weeks make me think the GOP holds on in both Houses. Dems win 4 or 5 senate seats, 10-15 House seats, fall just short. We'll have to see.

The Governor races'll be a wipeout for the Ds though. I think now Crist in Florida and Porter in Nevada are both in a lot of trouble. The Dems could countrol 30 govenorships on November 8, and in lots of key states. That will help out a lot down the road, although it seems a bit like a consolation prize now.

[knut wicksell]

TN however it turns out will be a plus for Democrats. Either Ford wins, which he still might, or Corker and the thugs win a pyhhric victory that will haunt them for the next three election cycles. The Black vote is important to Democrats. Tom tom drums playing in the background to an anti-Ford ad will be more than enough to overcome their religious apprehensions. It means turn-out. As to the present, this is an off-year election when turn-out is usually low; turn-out matters. I think on balance the TN campaign however it turns out has been a plus for us.

[Mimikatz]

It's Gibbons in Nevada, and he's in trouble. Sara is pretty knowledgeable on MN-06. I can't believe someone as extreme as Bachman could win. Another poll had Wetterling ahead.

TN is interesting. I don't understand racial politics, but I'd think Harold Ford is pretty non-threatening. Several stations won't run the ads.

In CA many people, especially suburbanites, are put off by overt racism, because they like to think of themselves as tolerant. I have no idea if that is true in TN.

[mainsailset]

O/T For anyone with a few coins still in their pocket, Wampum is going to host the Koufax Awards again this year and a little bird told me they are hoping that some change will come their way to enable them to purchase a generator to run stuff as they are off the grid and need the capacity beyond battery power. So, any help would be appreciated.

[pol]

Has anyone seen any polling data on VA 11th CD? I'm sure Tom Davis' seat is considered safe, but I kinda think it's closer than you think. His congressional challenger, Andrew Hurst, told me that a poll taken after the primary in June indicated the spread was 10 points. Davis's challenger 2 years ago garnered 40% of the vote, and he didn't get into the race until late in the ballgame, after two other challengers dropped out. I think people are getting tired of Davis.

Hurst entertains a lot of support in these parts and I'd love to see how he polls these days.

[ab initio]

The polls may not capture well these final 2 weeks. IMO, most folks have already made up their minds. Many races will be a lot closer and the difference between the winners and losers will be small.

The senate will be very close. IMO, Senate majority depends on the outcome in MO and VA. I think the Dems will win PA, MD, MN, NJ, RI. Ford I believe will lose TN. The free publicity for the race ads and now the porn ad will drive up his negatives and bring out the latent racism and stereotype of blacks in the south. MO will provide a very good indicator if the Dems can break in the southern border states. McCaskill's advantage is she has run a good campaign and the fact that Danforth has come out in support of the stem cell research ballot that Talent opposes. This may cause some moderates and even Repubs to vote for McCaskill. VA I believe could provide the upset. Although Webb has been hammered on the sexism charge that could depress the women vote in NoVA and Allen is a much slicker politician, Warner and Kaine are out stumping hard for Webb and they know a few things about winning in VA. I am also hopeful about CT as the race winds down I believe more Dems will vote their party's nominee and Lamont could squeak by.

The House, IMO will gain a Dem majority. It may be very tight but if the Dem GOTV is better than 2004 and Dem voters are not complacent and actually vote the margins could be larger.

[freepatriot]

from a NY Times article

(not to say that the NY Times has any credibility left, but ...)

In all, Democrats have had 220 ads mentioning Iraq, running them 46,402 times at a cost of at least $41.6 million since January, according to an analysis by the Campaign Media Analysis Group. Republicans have run 48 ads on the Iraq campaign 11,677 times, costing at least $8.5 million.

splain to me again how kkkarl rove is a genius

[Susan S]

Don't give up on FL-9. (Democrat Phyllis Busansky against legacy candidate Gus Bilirakis) Our internals are showing a much closer race than those being reported. Gus has ducked many debates and joint appearances because he is such a lightweight.
http://www.phyllis2006.com/

[Jodi]

Hmmmm, are doubts beginning to pop up?

Hey weren't these same pollsters the ones who have predicted Democratic victories in 2000, 2004?

[Ben P]

Hey weren't these same pollsters the ones who have predicted Democratic victories in 2000, 2004?

Well, see this is the thing. The Dems have a much larger lead in generic ballot than they have had in my life. But there are important structural impediments that mean this does not necessarily translate into big gains - particularly gerrymandering and money.

Right now, according to a post at the Hotline blog, there are 10 races the GOP has basically given up on (in the House), where the Dems have and continue to consistently poll with leads outside the margin of error. There are another 20 where the Dems have small leads (just outside MOE) or the lead is flipping back and forth within the margin of error. This is what it comes down to.

[Jon]

Mimi,

Thanks for the updates! Great Work!

I worry that the Ford campaign will get caught up in the trap the GOP has set for him ... talking about race issues and sleaze in the closing days of the campaign instead of Corker, Iraq, minimum wage, healthcare, Bush, the Rubber-Stamp Congress and the lack of accoutability. The reason the ad was so blatant and extreme was that it had to be to shake the race up. Corker was falling behind and could only be saved by shaking the race up. The GOP did that. The challenge for Ford is to get back on track. His response to the ad should be that all the Corker people can throw at him is smear and innuendo because goodness knows they don't want to talk about the mess in Iraq. Iraq is on everyone's mind. Ford would be better served by attacking Corker on Iraq and Corker's own government mismanagement. If you want government to work again, then Ford is your guy. Corker has proven he can't get the job done. The racial effect of the ad on moving some voters on racial appeals has been accomplished. We can only hope that it's worth much less than the 1-2% that the GOP thinks they can get out of it. The Democrats should use the ad to build an outrage pushback among black voters .. but do so off camera. It doesn't help Ford or the Democrats to talk about race at this point. The clock is ticking. Iraq, iraq, iraq.

On Claire McCaskill. I've watched the Missouri Senate race and been on the ground there. This race wouldn't have been close if Claire hadn't been late in getting her field operations rolled out and running. I suspect that the Democrat party in Missouri and the McCaskill campaign underestimated the Talent people. The reason Talent won his first Senate race is through his superior organization and relentless approach to campaigning. He's almost a politcial machine in himself. He has very good people. His campaign was up and running in January. He had a very strong campaign in place by March, including field operations. The McCaskill campaign has always been a step behind and a day late. That's why the race is close. The nursing home ads have hurt her support among seniors. I've talked to some of these seniors. I suspect that the campaign and a lot of Democrats thought that they would be less effective this time since they were used against her in the Gubernatorial race. Wrong. They are being used relentlessly again this time because they do work.

I believe that McCaskill will win in Missouri if the voters are so fed up with the Republicans that they want to send Bush and the Republicans a message obout Iraq, Katrina, etc. If not, she loses on the ground game in a close race. Here's an example, some of my family live in the Springfield/Joplin area (the Republican base in Missouri). They're pro-life Republicans who support stem cell research. They're voting for Claire McCaskill this time around, after voting for Talent the last time, because they are disgusted about Iraq, the deficit, the cronyism and the gross government failure in responding to Katrina. In their heavily Republican neighborhood, Talent signs dot the landscape. Not once have they been contacted by someone from the McCaskill campaign. They have been almost beseiged by Republican campaign workers. That's the field advantage that Talent has. His campaign and the Republican party are very focused and microtarget so they don't waste resources. The McCaskill campaign and the Democrats use a scattershot approach and miss potential voters. If these were soft McCaskill voters in heavily Republican territory and had they been persuadable, they might have fallen back into the Talent fold. If only the McCaskill Campaign had reached out to the people who wouldn't normally have supported her, then I suspect she would have been in a much better field position. And it's also important to reinforce your own potential supporters who are not much more than an island in a sea of the opposition. Think of the potential loss of not using these Republicans for McCaskill as organizers or campaigners in their very "Red" neighborhoods.

Anyway, just the opinion of someone who used to work on the other side. ;-)