More From Gallup On Religious Voters

by DemFromCT

Last week, a Pew poll caught some eyeballs when the WaPo wrote up that

GOP's Hold on Evangelicals Weakening
Party's Showing in Midterm Elections May Be Hurt as Polls Indicate Support Dropping in Base

The poll was taken from the last ten days in September through the first 4 days of October. The key findings were

57 percent of white evangelicals are inclined to vote for Republican congressional candidates in the midterm elections, a 21-point drop in support among this critical part of the GOP base

 

the percentage of evangelicals who think that Republicans govern "in a more honest and ethical way" than Democrats has plunged to 42 percent, from 55 percent at the start of the year.

Gallup has released its  own analysis today of its Oct 6-8 poll:

For the purpose of political analysis this year, Gallup has divided the American population into three groups based on race and church attendance: Religious whites (defined as whites who self-report attending church weekly or almost every week), less religious whites (defined as whites who self-report attending church monthly or less often), and all others.

The Democrats made gains across all groups in the October poll compared to the averages in previous months. But the Democratic gain (or Republican loss depending on how one looks at it) is more significant among religious whites than among the other two groups. Religious whites went from an average Democratic disadvantage of 23 points across the June through September months, to dead even in October. Less religious whites shifted only seven points across these two time periods, while the group of "all others" shifted 9 points.

A comparison of the September average to October shows a 22-point gain for the Democrats among white frequent churchgoers, a six-point gain among white less frequent churchgoers, and a 14-point gain among all others.

Graphs are on the flip. This represents a major shift in a short time. As noted previously, indications that the GOP is in trouble with its base are rampant, some anecdotal and some supported by polling. Major efforts to round up that base are being made, but some are whackier than others. I'll leave it to more informed posters to discuss that the evengelical movement is far from monolithic, and has its own stresses in trying to stay united. Some think that voting is not where efforts should be spent... too much Caesar and not enough God. And I certainly won't predict what this all means on November 7.

But the information sure is interesting.

written permission to judiciously use Gallup material

Comments

[mainsailset]

For anyone missing Olbermann's piece last night on David Kuo's book Tempting Faith, there's a blip up at the MSNBC site on the story http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15228489/ The insider's (as in, inside the WH counsel) take on how the Bush admin took the Evangelicals for a ride is one more nail in the coffin. Book doesn't go on sale until next week I believe.

[Wendo]

After the new book, Tempting Faith by David Kuo comes out on Monday, the religious right will know the truth about the Bush administration.

Exclusive: Book says Bush just using Christians
‘Tempting Faith’ author David Kuo worked for Bush from 2001 to 2003
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15228489/

[Mimikatz]

I mentioned the Olbermann piece on David Kuo's book yesterday. He will have more on it on today's show. One thing that is interesting is that John DiIulio (Bush's first head of faith-based programs) told a very similar tale that the faith-based stuff was all political and no substance and they viewed Christians as just one more interest groupo to exploit for money and votes in a memo to Ron Suskind. Suskind wrote an article in the Jan. 2003 Esquire about it, and the day after the article appeared, DiIulio said at a press conference that his charges were baseless and hasn't been heard from since. Karl Rove had evidently made calls to him. Suskind describes this in "The Price of Loyalty."

That they can no longer silence critics any more shows just far Bush and Rove have fallen into lame duckitude.

Traditionally, association with the more worldly things like fame, fortune and power has been seen as inimical to the spiritual journey. While the Puritan doctrine of the elect did get transmuted into the notion that anyone who prospered had God's favor; therefore, material success was indiciative of spiritual advancement, this belief is by no means universal. Religious revivials were more a turning away from what the Catholics called "the glamor of Satan and his works."

Getting religious fundamentalists into politics, specifically Right-wing politics, was a multi-decade project which required overcoming this disdain for the material world and its seductions. That those who engaged in it have been shown to be charlatans may just cause many religious people to revert to their political isolationism again. After all, the real purpose of the wall between church and state was to protect religion from the government, not the other way around.

And of course there are many people (like myself) who would describe themselves as attending religious services on a weekly basis who aren't right-wing fundamentalists. Many (unlike me) may be main-line Protestants who were once Republicans and are now disenchanted.

[Sara]

Last Night on PBS Bill Moyers had a very interesting hour long program related to this -- the movement inside the Evangelical group to emphasize Stewardship of the Environment. This is by no means a majority position yet -- but it is apparently moving, and it brings many Evangelicals into direct conflict with the Finance Industry wing of the Republican Party. Two issues were emphasized (at least till I got a phone call and stopped watching) Mountaintop Removal in W. Virginia, and the poisoning of the water table in an area dependent on wells, and another group in Idaho dealing with a variety of issues.

What would make for great difficulties in establishing dialogue between these Evangelicals and the established Environmental organizations is the huge difference in points of departure. Moyers made clear these Evangelicals were part of the Young Earth believers, and they really wanted no part of any sort of "science" in any environmental program -- but still the possibility exists for some sort of common efforts. According to Moyers the movement was started by a British Climateologist who is also part of the Evangelical movement. Perhaps some of the mainstream Environmental groups should explore some sort of missionary effort on some narrow matters.

[Jodi]

The major items for the religious when they are in the voting booth are the "trigger," "knee jerk" items of Abortion, Gay Marriage, Prayer in schools, Memorials on Public property, and National Security. Also Affirmative Action/Civil Rights especially as affecting Churches hiring and employee practices, the Boy Scouts (Leaders), etc.

Yes a local politican's honesty may matter but generally all the politicans are viewed as terrible.

The Republicans didn't so much as mold the Religious as adapt themselves to the Religious. The same way the Democrats have adapted themselves to the Gays, the ABotionists, the Affirmative action groups, the anti God, the Anti-War.