Iraq Failure Leads To Scrambling For Alternatives

The news from Iraq is grim. Caught in an escalating civil war, and unable to admit that "mistakes were made" for a variety of reasons (including that Bush never admits mistakes, and admitting one of this magnitude would cause the November election to become somewhere between a rout and a debacle of historic proportions), the President has turned to his father's consigliere to get him out of trouble one more time.

James A. Baker III , the Republican co-chairman of a bipartisan commission assessing Iraq strategy for President Bush, said today that he expected the group to depart from Mr. Bush's call to "stay the course."..

Mr. Baker, who served Mr. Bush's father as secretary of state and White House chief of staff, did explicitly reject a rapid withdrawal from Iraq, which he said would only invite Iran, Syria and "even our friends in the gulf" to fill the power vacuum.

While heading the commission, Mr. Baker has been talking to President Bush regularly and is unlikely to issue suggestions that the president has not tacitly approved. The independent panel was requested by Congress. Today, he was asked about statements last week by the Republican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Senator John W. Warner of Virginia, who said Iraq was "drifting sideways" and urged consideration of a "change of course" if the Iraqi government cannot restore order in two or three months.

Asked if he agreed with that timetable, Mr. Baker said: "Yes, absolutely. And we're taking a look at other alternatives."

In interviews over the past two weeks, other members of the Iraq Study Group, an independent organization that came together with the reluctant blessing of the White House, have expressed concern that within months whatever course the group recommends will be overtaken by violence and other developments in Iraq.

So now we've got both Baker and Warner floating trial balloons while at the same time the WH adds that these ballons are being floated with "reluctant blessings" from the President (a previous NY Times story claims that Bush was blindsided by Warner's comments).

The election is 4 weeks away. "Stay the course" is as dead in the water as the chances that Dennis Hastert will repeat as Speaker of the House. Or, as unlikely as the chances that the country will ever forgive Bush for getting us into this untenable mess in the first place.

He'll need something to propose to be able to work with the new Congress. The Iraq Study Group will try and come up with something. It remains to be seen whether rapidly progressive events on the ground in Iraq will make any of this useful. But this further evidence that Bush isn't completely delusional about Iraq is the only bit of welcome news on the topic we're likely to hear for some time.

Comments

[freepatriot]

I told you so

Iraq could be over before November 7th

Now we have a whole month for the truth to sink in

Hey America, wanna vote for the party that just lost 2750 American Soldiers FOR NOTHING

bush is a disater, the repuglicans are a disaster, and the Democrats are the only people who can save America

karl rove's slime storm ain't gonna help this time

[prostratedragon]

Scrambling they are, but nothing can make me very sanguine about this Baker-Kissinger-mediated clarity the punctuationator is supposed to be experiencing. I refer to a couple of comments at welshman's diary:

http://tinyurl.com/msrsm
This commenter reminds us of Nixon's "secret plan" to end the Vietnam War, when he was running for President in 1968:

According to one historian: "...it became obvious in 1969 that Nixon's "secret plan" to end the war was a campaign gimmick..."

First, it was the return of Henry Kissinger. Surprise! Now we're hearing (leaked) that there is a secret plan to change course in Iraq. Bush is no longer in denial!

Related conjectures appear in the comments at
http://tinyurl.com/s7oaq
and
http://tinyurl.com/hdaym

To put it another way, doesn't the appearance of James Baker always signal the supplanting of national interests, or even broader private interests, by Bush interests? Recall his last appearance, in December 2000, which he will never live down so far as I'm concerned. And what does Kissinger know besides what failed in Vietnam?

I think the Democrats have an opportunity to route around all of this bushwa and achieve a big success next month, but they must give no respect whatever to words and rumours from the old flim-flam crowd.

[along]

I see this in a purely political light. This could very well be the October Surprise Rove was so gleefully chimping about.

I think the pre-Foley calculus was this: If by Nov. 1 it becomes conventional wisdom that we will be significantly shifting course in Iraq by January, that could very well keep Republicans and Independents who were going to vote Democratic, or not vote at all, in the fold.
It could also blunt the turnout of moderate Democrats who just want to see a change in policy.

Now, however, I don't see it working very well at all. But that's all they've got.

[CaseyL]

NK just detonated a nuke. Maybe. Early seismic traces are inconclusive: it may be the NK's nuke fizzled, "only" tripping off a 3.5 shake rather than a 5 pointer.

This is so bad I can't think straight.

So I'll speculate on the political fallout, since I can always do that.

I don't see how this helps Bush or the GOP. They're gonna clamor to the skies that this proves only they can protect America - but you've gotta be on some strange drugs to believe that, since they're the ones who've been in charge for the last 6 years, they're the ones who refused to negotiate with NK, and the Bush Admin, specifically, sabotaged the deal that the 6 Nations did manage to make, by freezing NK financial assets practically the day after the deal was announced.

I don't know what the political reaction will be: whether Americans will again run into Daddy Bush's arms, or if they'll hold off panicking long enough to realize that it's his maleficent policies that have drained our military and our diplomatic strength just when we most need it.

I hope to God Americans realize what an awful place Bush - and, by extension, the GOP - have put not only our country but the whole world in.

I hope to hell the Democrats don't fall for that "bipartisanship in a time of crisis" bugfuckery again.

Bush got us here. The GOP helped him.

The Democrats need to shout this from the rooftops.

[ab initio]

"I hope to hell the Democrats don't fall for that "bipartisanship in a time of crisis" bugfuckery again.

Bush got us here. The GOP helped him.

The Democrats need to shout this from the rooftops."

CaseyL, I coundn't agree with you more. We are 4 weeks from election day. At this juncture the Dems should focus on winning the election and hammer Bush and the Repubs for being asleep on the wheel in N.Korea and having most of our intelligence assets in Iraq in a bloody civil war. And in any case what can you do. Invade N.Korea? Puh-leaze! Sanctions? Been there done that. What the N.Koreans want is direct negotiations with the US. That's what Bill Richardson has been advocating. But Bush wants intermediaries. Just like wanting Afghan militias to apprehend OBL in Tora Bora when sending our Special Forces would have probably done the job.

The Dems need to go to town on Bush and the Repubs making us less safe by the hour with their bad judgement. There's not one issue where they have demonstrated an ability to make a good decision.

The metaphor of Nero fiddling while Rome burned is so apt.

[jwp]

calling Bill Richardson

[Dismayed]

Bush won't talk to Iran. Won't talk to NK. I'm really just an old country boy at the end of the day, but I say when a man asks you to talk - sends you a letter just asking to talk and you won't do that... You're a coward. George Bush is a coward. AND he's not a Texan. Never has been - never will be. He's a phony assed coward. And don't worry, guys. I keep a pulse on the bubbas - they get it.

[jwp]

tomorrow morning

a lot of people will be wondering if the Dems have any plan to deal with N Korea

not entirely fair or rational; the N Koreans got the bomb on the Repub watch

but the public has been conditioned by the media to expect ineptitude from the Dems

frankly no one has much of a plan to deal with N Korea. last time I looked, there aren't any foolproof options

but the question hangs in the public's mind, and I think the public thinks that it is an important question

what would the Dems do?

hopefully, the Dems on the morning news shows will not appear to be deer in the headlights

they've had enough time to think about what they would say because this day has been coming for a while

I wish I felt more confident

[Brian Boru]

So, on 8 November Bush turns into a dreaded cut-and-runner.

[freepatriot]

let me get this straight

America is gonna want to know what the Democrats plan to do about North Korea ???

why the fuck should any ask what the Democrats are gonna do about North Korea

last I heard, the presnit was a repuglican named george bush

what the fuck is george bush gonna do about North korea

I Guess that "Stay The Course" sound bite is a little INOPERATIVE now, so that ain't gonna work

for Iraq as well as North Korea

it's time for leadership, and if America is looking to the democrats for leadership, then the answer to "What are the Democrats gonna do about North Korea ???" is LETS WAIT UNTIL JANUARY 4TH AND ASK PRESIDENT PELOSI

how's that for an answer

[prostratedragon]

SusanUnPC at No Quarter, and Juan Cole (Oct. 8 posting in particular), give plenty of reasons to view the developing situation in Iraq with dread Baker or no Baker, alas.

[bugsy]

machismo imperial en vivo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXgcQNsUKO0
un poquito mas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94ZHtAlcHlE
mis compatriotas machos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Guz8d6DqeP0
y no han de vencer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyWT1gpcQMA
porque la lucha no se hace para matar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXwuk2I6Qvs
y esto no podemos mas aturar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zPJki8OQkU
mientras solo quieren regresar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tolqtgJZDw

[Jodi]

jwp,

I'm sure Pelosi will step up to the Mic looking immaculate, and say something. I don't expect much, but she will step up lookng immaculate.

[rat bastahd]

The N. Korea nuke test certainly changes the news cycle. It SHOULD show the world what a foreign policy failure Dubya is, however, I bet they love not having Foley be the headline.

As for your post on Iraq, same thing. It should show all those potential Gooper-voters that Bush's way is a failure and a colossal mistake. Now he's gonna cut-n-run after mocking such a strategy for years.

Doesn't seem to matter - Iraq, Iran, N. Korea - being a faux-cowboy and saying my way or the highway doesn't work out in the big bad world. Speak loudly and carry a small stick may have allowed them to run roughshod over American values but it has sown seeds of great destruction everywhere else.

These fuck-ups need to go!

[janinsanfran]

Jodi -- actually, as Nancy Pelosi's constituent, I can testify that she usually looks a little irritated and not completely put together. I do not criticize her skills as a politician; she is actually phenomenally competent or she wouldn't be where she is today. But her great skills are clearly of the back-room head banging and arm twisting sort, not the public charismatic leadership sort. :-)

However, she is smart and tough enough so she would never have simply dithered while NK got the bomb. Dithering and posturing is not a policy.

[Jodi]

janinsanfran,

I love SF by the way. San Diego is my favorite though.

:)

But I am giving Pelosi credit. When I get to where I have 6 grandchildren, I hope I look as good. I mean she must have a very hectic and busy life. And of course a lot of stress and strain.

Actually I think she does failry well at the TV podium, but I have noticed that the Democrats themselves don't seem to like what she does. Of course the Republicans hate her.

So it is something beyond what you see.