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October 18, 2006

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Let the warnings about complacency, false assumptions and overconfidence ring out. After all, polls don't win elections, field and money does.

as I recall, presnit bush was real confident that we would win in Iraq too

false bravado don't win wars, and it don't win elections

actually, MSNBC's headline is better than the WSJ.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15319792/

Big Democratic wins likely on Election Day
NBC/WSJ poll: Public's opinion of GOP hits record low

But going in without enough troops and commitment will lose you wars. Go Dems!

See here form Charlie Cook.

New polls from Majority Watch/Constituent Dynamics. These are really wild.

They have large leads for Hall in NY-19, Gillebrand in NY-20, Maffei in NY-25 and Massa in NY-29--so big they are pretty suspect. However, Chris Bowwers at MyDD recently toured upstate, where he grew up and still has family, and said that the change was palpable, and the Dems are picking up steam. It is Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, plus the incompetence shown by the House leadership. It is not inconceivable for the Dems to knock off all the upstate Pubs.

Oh, and 3 point leads for Bean in IL-08 and Dan Seals in IL-10 only 2 pts behind, 46-44(!), another Dem sleeper race.

i hope to god this translates into democratic seats

but

i am not positive it will.

the voters have been for years, and remain, uninvolved and extremely poorly informed in large numbers.

this leaves them susceptible to commonplace psychological manipulation in the form of political ads on teevee.

this does not create a circumstance in which stable judgments can be made from current polling data.

but i am hoping for the bestest and the mostest for our country - which this time is a democratic victory.

political ads have been running and GOP numbers keep dropping. Only GOTV can save the GOP now.

It's not Get OUT the Vote; it's KEEP Out the Vote. Supress the vote, gimmick the numbers when you can, make sure Democratic precincts don't have enough working machines.

The razor thin margins make me very nervous. GOP chicanery can overcome 2-4% margins.

I don't know how's going to pan out, nor does anybody else. But what's clear is that the narrative has changed. The MSM is reporting this; it isn't hiding it. It isn't defending the thugs to the degree it used to. It smells blood.

I remember one afternoon in Cancun. I was reading on the beach, and I looked out into the gulf and saw a splash and then blood and then lots more blood. It was a dolphin being attacked by sharks, and by the end there was a lot of blood and a lot of sharks. And we had to stay out of the water for the rest of the day. The MSM smell blood. It's their bread and butter, like Dracula's.

I think for the term we will have the press more or less on our side at the level of the horse-race narrative. Unless Rove can engineer a come-from-behind move, things will only get worse for the thugs.

We live in hope.

Its long been said that what goes around comes around and this new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll seems to be an indication that the GOP is fast approaching a first hand encounter with the short end of the proverbial stick. For the Party that has sought to make terror and fear the surf and turf of their pre-election voter menu, they may instead find themselves bogged down in the sands of scandal as a fast approaching wave is about to sweep them out of power in a classic example of voter house cleaning.

Clearly, the most significant finding in this new poll is that the Democrats may be finally closing the deal with voters...something they have been unable to achieve in recent election cycles. If the Democrats are in fact now seen as a favorable alternative to the GOP, it may well signal that the country has not only rejected more of the same from the Republican Party but decided that the nation needs to move in a decidedly new direction.

Read more here:

www.thoughttheater.com

Are there any reporting on GOTV efforts and the ground game for the different races?

Hopefully, we win in Nov.

I think there is a chance for realignment -- which, in my view, means people making new self-identification with a party. Some independents becoming Dems, some Repubs becoming independent. Young people identifying as Dem.

But we won't accomplish that on election day. At best, we may make a start. The next two years will be key. Dems have to deliver. Dems will NOT deliver unless progressive bloggers stay organized and stay on their butts.

Work to do.

There is an old expression from Mark Twain that I tell quite often, "Some people say don't put all your eggs in one basket, but why dilute your efforts and divide your attention? By all means put all you eggs in one basket - but watch that basket!"

Seems here that the repubs put all there eggs in the war and terrorism basket, yet failed to tend to it. In fact, they dashed it to the ground and proceeded to deficate in it. Rove really isn't that smart after all.

Rove is a liar who understands (firsthand) the fears and prejudices of the public. He is not a genius. But he has has success wielding propaganda.

But, as you say, Dismayed, that does not add up to governance.

The sad fact is that we are governed by vicious, petty and ignorant men. Sad sacks, really.

"Out with the old.
In with the new."

This is just old hat folks. Get over it.

This has only a little to do with this thread, but it speaks to the massive misinformation out there that both sides are generating.

I spoke before on the ridiculous 650,000 dead in Iraq study in Lancet, and said that the numbers didn't come close to having a true ring when compared to many other measures of the dead. UNLESS there was some vast depository of bodies found.
I further said I was not the expert to answer directly about the poll's methodology, except to say that just on the numbers side, it seem very, very suspect. I do know numbers. It is sometimes my business to ferret out improbabilities in data, in results, in expectations, and indeed just plain falsifications (though I don't say the Lancet article is a falsification, just poor numbers)

I predicted that the 650,000 number would be picked apart. Here is a one of the first "experts" doing so. More will come of course. It is a big target. A very big 650,000 target.

quoting from the WSJ Opinion Journal

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110009108

"THE COUNT

655,000 War Dead?
A bogus study on Iraq casualties.

BY STEVEN E. MOORE
Wednesday, October 18, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT

After doing survey research in Iraq for nearly two years, I was
surprised to read that a study by a group from Johns Hopkins
University claims that 655,000 Iraqis have died as a result of the war... "

Like myself the Wall Street Journal has a reputation for numbers.

Anyway for cymro and William, and of course the big number guy DemFromCT. - enjoy.

The Lancet Study

We literally do not know a single Iraqi family that has not seen the violent death of a first or second-degree relative these last three years. Abductions, militias, sectarian violence, revenge killings, assassinations, car-bombs, suicide bombers, American military strikes, Iraqi military raids, death squads, extremists, armed robberies, executions, detentions, secret prisons, torture, mysterious weapons – with so many different ways to die, is the number so far fetched?

There are Iraqi women who have not shed their black mourning robes since 2003 because each time the end of the proper mourning period comes around, some other relative dies and the countdown begins once again.

Down the River

Everything I dreaded has come to pass -- for the Iraqis, if not for us.

The point deserves frequent repetition: We did this. We caused it. We're not just callous bystanders to genocide, as in Rwanda, but the active ingredient that made it possible. We turned Iraq into a happy hunting ground for Al Qaeda and the Mahdi Army. If Iraq is now a failed state, it's because of our failures.

But one can fully accept America's moral and legal responsibility for unleashing this barbarism and still not have a clue as to what can or should be done to stop it. Would a U.S. military withdrawal reduce the bloodshed or worsen it? I don't know, and I think anyone who says they do know is either lying or as deluded as Bush. But my intuition tells me that either way, whether we stay or go, thousands more, maybe millions more, are going to die.

We all have bad feelings about the Iraqi war.

However that is no excuse for bad numbers. For poor or at worse deliberately misleading techniques.

Remember that is what got Bush in trouble. Stretching the truth as much as just plain untruth.

quote:
"But the Johns Hopkins tally is wildly at odds with any numbers I have seen in that country. Survey results frequently have a margin of error of plus or minus 3% or 5%--not 1200%."

If we buy into something that is 1200% wrong then our logic becomes suspect in everything.

Wishful thinking is not enough.

Don't give them ammunition with stupidity.

There was a guy who called into C-SPAN this morning reminding people not to forget how the exit polls in 2004 (from place like Maine and NH) were misleading, people said they voted for Kerry but Bush won. The early Kerry "wins" encouraged Republicans to get out and vote in the west.

I'll guess that both Democrats and Republicans remember that election and those polls, being somewhat cynical about Rove and Republicans I'm not celebrating yet.

ab initio asked up thread about GOTV,

This doesn't get reported much nationally, but I can report that last week the call here in Minnesota went out "Wellstoneians to the Barricades" and what is happening is that the old crew is coming together to do GOTV in two congressional districts, a crew that is mostly volunteer, and actually knows how to do it very very well. It will be phone banking, door knocks and lit distribution the week before the election, Door Hangers the night before election, and finally rides to the polls and help with same day registeration at the polls. The whole thing is being done by state senate district (they all have to run this year), so the effort will be a coordinated campaign model, working to enlarge the DFL Senate Majority, and take the state house in which the DFL is currently down by two seats.

Jodi, the Lancet study is very solid. Your source is not.

DemFromCT,

and the UN study, and others studies.

My special spidery (Spiderman) math senses tingle and tell me,

NO, NO, NO, ...

I almost sense a Plamegate type fixation here.

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