Taking the Congress--An Update

By Mimikatz

There have been some new polls and some thorough analysis of independent expenditures by the congressional campaign committees for the two parties--the DCCC and the RNCC--that suggest at least where the two parties think the battles--and their strengths and weaknesses--are.  Overall, there seems to be less movement on the House side but, as Dem notes in a post below, some movement towards the Dems on the Senate side (confirmed by Rasmussen), where Dem candidates are in the lead in PA, MT, RI and OH, even in MO, marginally ahead in TN and rising in VA.  On the House side, the DCCC added several names to its Red-to-Blue program.  Added to the original 33 names (plus one in an open but Dem seat, OH-06),  there are now  5 new candidates, including Gabrielle Giffords in AZ-08, Paul Hodes in NH-02, Steve Kagen in WI-08, Dan Maffei in NY-25, Angie Paccione in CO-04, and 3 more candidates in Dem-held open seats.  Still no real DCCC support for Jerry McNerney in CA-11, although he did make the list of "emerging races," along with 14 other candidates considered long-shots at this point.  (Note:  links to the other Dem candidates can be found in my last update.)

Based on the expenditures the parties are making, it would seem that the GOP has all but conceded four open seats to the Dems--AZ-08 (Giffords v. Gard), IA-01 (Braley v. Whalen, Braley up by at least 7 percent), CO-07 (Perlmutter v. O'Donnell) and TX-22 (Lampson v. write-ins).  The RNCC has put nothing into these four races except to help Steve Huffmann, who lost the primary in AZ-08.  In addition, they have expended no money other than for polling in CT-02, where Joe Courtney is ahead of Rob Simmons, and only token amounts in PA-06 (Murphy v. Gerlach, where Lois Murphy has polled ahead). These six seats seem to be solid Dem pickups at this point. 

Dems are also polling ahead in three races in Indiana, IN-09 (Hill v. Sodrel), IN-08 (Ellsworth v. Hostettler) and IN-02 (Donnelly v. Chocola).  The RNCC has put over $100,000 in the first two races, and a lesser amount into IN-02, indicating their concern.  There have been other independent expenditures as well.  The GOP Governor is unpopular in Indiana, and these remain among the next-best pick-up chances for the Dems, along with NC-11 (Shuler v. Taylor), where Taylor has triggered the "millionaire's exception, allowing Shuler to receive over $6000 from individuals, and the DCCC is helping Shuler.

The Dem's next best chances are in OH-01 (Cranley v. Chabot--Cranley polling slightly ahead), PA-10, (Carney v. Sherwood, Carney polling ahead, big RNCC expenditures), VA-02 (Kellam v. Drake).  That is almost enough.  Two more seats would put the Dems over the top, if they hold all their seats.  Below are my picks for the next most likely seats to go Dem. 

At the top of the list are probably Hodes (v. Bass) in NH-02, Patricia Madrid (v. Wilson) in NM-01, Kagen (v. Gard) in WI-08, Kilroy (v. Pryce) in OH-15. and Duckworth (v. Roskam) in IL-06.  In IL there is a strong Dem presence at the top of the ticket, where Governor Rod Blagojevich is blowing away Judy Baar Topinka in the latest poll. Will there be coattails?  The same might be said for OH, where Ted Strickland is trouncing Ken Blackwell for Governor.  If so, Kilroy and Duckworth might be helped, along, perhaps, with some longer shots.  Other possible pickups are NY-24 and PA-07.  That is eight more races, for a total of 21.  The Dems need 15 seats at a minimum to take the House, more to function as a majority.

From here on it gets harder. KY-04 looks iffy from the polls, as does CT-04 and, to a lesser extent, CT-05, although CT is somewhat of a wildcard this year.  The RNCC has not put money into these races after doing some polling in July.  In MN-06 a new SurveyUSA poll has Michelle Bachmann (R) ahead of Patty Wetterling at 50-44%. One seat the GOP seems unwilling to concede is Bob Ney's seat, OH-18, where Joy Padgett is the new R candidate and the RNCC has just expended over $250,000 against Dem candidate Zack Space.  Two recent polls have given contradictory results for Darcy Burner (v. Reichert) in WA-08, but she has out-raised him in all three quarters this year, apparently, and every time Bush or Cheney come to town for a Reichert fundraiser, her totals go up as well.  Other possibilities are NY-20 (Gillibrand v. Sweeney) and 29 (Massa v. Kuhl), especially if Spitzer and Clinton have coattails, and FL-22.

Longer shots with rising chances are Angie Paccione in CO-04 (v. Musgrave), where Angie has qualified for DCCC help and Musgrave has received help from the RNCC, McNerney in CA-11,  Charlie Brown (v. Doolittle) in CA-04, if the scandals heat up, and AZ-05, NJ-07, IL-10 (Dan Seals), TX-23, OH-02 (Dr. Vic Wulsin v. Mean Jean Schmidt), ID-01, AZ-01, NC-08, NY-25, WA-05 (Peter Goldmark) and WY-AL. 

If things firm up for the GOP they could lose only 8-12 seats.  At this point, it seems more likely they they will lose 15-20 seats, and the Dems will lose 0-2.  Bush's bounce is gone, according to Rasmussen--he is back to 41% approval in a poll that typically has him running ahead of other polls, and Congress isn't so popular either.  A Dem sweep of 30 or more seats, which would require winning several longshots, seems unlikely at this point, but with Bush jumping the shark on the torture issue, it is not impossible. 

Comments

[Mimikatz]

That's Giffords v. Graf in AZ-08 and Kagen v, Gard in WI-08.

[DemFromCT]

excellent and thank you.

[Mimikatz]

The Senate races get polled more, which may be why there seems to be more movement there. The main polls since my last update were the Constituent Dynamics polls in the three Indiana races, where the Dem was over 50% in all three, and the MN-06 poll, which was not good.

The Dem Governors are leading by large margins in IL, OH and PA, as well as NY, and a big question is whether they have coattails. That, and how CT shapes up, are critical. The more things go south for the Bush regime, the more races in play, the more it will cost to defend, and the more diluted their efforts will be. But always remember I'm a congenital optimist.

[Sara]

Mimi, I think MN 06 is underestimated in this poll & analysis. Look at the Mark Kennedy Senate Poll -- he is in the low 30's (and he currently represents the 06 CD,) against Klobuchar who has hit above 60 in the latest Senate poll. In fact the Republicans have confessed that they are removing the party money from that race. The key in the Backman/Wetterling race is the Independents who dominate the district in parts -- and you got to look at how they poll to see if they are properly weighting the Independents.

Coleen Rowley has recently moved up about six points on Klein in 02 CD in Minnesota, with 16% undecided. Murtha was in last weekend to organize vets for Coleen -- and the Rosemont VFW Hall was far too small for the volunteers who showed up to hear and then sign on to help.

Walsh is also very close to Gutknencht in the first district. This race is fascinating for reasons outside normal party politics. It involves the question of whether Gutknecht has worked to keep the coal trains out of downtown Rochester -- home of Mayo Clinic. The Rail and Coal interests are rebuilding an old train line, intending to bring Dakota and Wyoming coal to Eastern Electrical generators right through the middle of Rochester and along side the holy of holies -- Mayo Clinic -- and Gutknecht has not protested a drop. (48 + coal trains a day with 120+ cars is what is projected), and Mayo does not think coal dust healthy for their clients or industry. Walsh's position is to create a rail detour around Rochester in the rural areas, and require coal cars to be covered, and Gutknecht says either he has not looked into it, or that he thinks Mayo's risk analysis is wrong. It is a fascinating stand-off, and an interesting matter in a campaign. In the last year the Rochester area has flipped, Republican to Dem.

Our 5th district race remains interesting only in the cultural sense, but I think political junkies should follow it. Essentially, how do you elect the first voice for American Muslims into Congress? What kind of coalition elects him? Who positions money against him?
the Pope douth not like the Protestants much more than the Muslims, so how do we deal with that matter?

[John Casper]

Thanks Mimi.

[Eric]

I've read that the Republican strategy is to spend 90% of their money on negative and attack TV spots. This will make races close. Close elections lend themselves to fraud by vote machines. The machines are so widespread and entrenched now that it will take an army of statistics graduate students to parse the data, and by the time they do, it will be too late. Maybe I'm being alarmist here, but these machines scare me. I just don't understand how they can be approved in California despite failing the required tests for certification.

All of this information is great, however all of the projections are based on the assumption of fair elections and honest vote counts. They could be meaningless and I predict that the actual Democratic gains will prove to be far less than the polls indicate. I'll be surprised if we even take the House.

[Mimikatz]

Sara: The MN poll came in just as I was finishing. It is the second to suggest Wetterling is not doing nearly as well as Klobuchar. I didn't see the analysis in the poll.

Eric--Yes, i do assume reasonably fair elections. I think the best defense against fraud is to be as far ahead as possible in as many races as possible. It doesn't look like Ken Blackwell can do anything to overcome the bad numbers in his race for Ohio Gov. Is the R machine going to fix OH 01, 02, 15 and 18? Who knows, but a big Dem effort plus vigilance are the best defenses.

There is only so much that the R's can do, given the decentralization in House races. It is expensive to poll every race, and there are plenty of sleeper races in the midwest and west that the Dems could win out from under the R's noses. So don't be defeatist. Get to work.

[Mimikatz]

More good news from FL-13, Katherine Harris' ond seat. Christine Jennings (D) leads Buchanan 46-38%, although he has vastly more money. But she is a proven fundraiser.

[Larry Bodine]

Focusing on the 6th Congression District race in Illinois, see http://republicansforduckworth.typepad.com/blog/ for a candidate's debate that made it clear Duckworth will win:
1. She wants to get us out of Iraq.
2. She's a veteran and her bland opponent has no service record at all.
3. The District has changed. 60% of Americans, including us here in DuPage county, are opposed to the war in Iraq.
4. She has a natural appeal for women voters and people of color. Her opponent is just another balding white lawyer.
5. She wants to get us off foreign oil and into bio-fuels and flex cars that can run on any fuel.
6. Her opponent has been lying his ass off in direct-mail flyers and getting nailed for his falsehoods in the Illinois newspapers.

Need I continue?

[kikmarin]

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