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August 22, 2006


I presume the righties will be out touting these results as the start of a Bush poll-rocket that'll take him back over 50% by Election Day. That, of course, is absurd in so many ways, as you (and Prof. Franklin) point out. Granted, having two polls show the rise makes it harder to dismiss out of hand, but by the same token I find it hard to believe the rush of polls from last week (34/35/36/36/37/38) could ALL be rendered false in six days. What happened since to cause the rise? JonBenet? The Red Sox crash? (Sorry I was busy/away yesterday, Dem, and couldn't chime in on the Fenway results with the web's other certified Yankee fan) And, if there were a bump upward for Bush, why wouldn't it be accompanied by progress for GOP-ers in the state races? Would we have really seen Webb close on Allen (and, according to a Kos diarist, Lamont gain on Lieberman) in the same period?

Anyway, as you say, it's still all "been down so long it feels like up to me" stuff. 42% is a crappy approval, one the White House would have agonized over just about a year ago. 11 weeks till Election Day, and things still look grim for them.

Josh Marshall also cites an American Research Group finding that places Lamont and Lieberman nearly even, "well within the margin of error," he says.

One of your links doesn't work. The "h" was missing from the http address. The correct for "a real trend" is here:



these numbers do not bode well...

Well, I hope Dems have a vote for everytime this phrase appears

It's going to be turnout and totals... let's not get smug or complacent about indicators... it's still going to be a race... and so dirty (I think) that indicators will shrink by comparison of WHO actually gets into the voting booths.... for whatever reasons

Dems need not only take off the gloves, the sleeves must be rolled up NOW, and until the recounts are over...

See this graph for significance of the "doesn't bode well" thing.

how do you explain, that the contracts at:


apparantly show a different picture than the quoted polls ?
Are these contracts being manipulated ?

this is a better (direct) URL :


The explanation is rather trivial... on-line markets are not especially accurate until late in the game. All they do is reflect early CW. They have Lieberman up 61-37 right now. Do you really beieve that?

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