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August 23, 2006

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Historically speaking, per all the usual statistics, Kerry should have won the 2004 election. He did not win, according to the new world order. Historically, exit polling has invariantly predicted the results of the elections within a 3% plus or minus range. In 2000, and 2004, this invariant statistic became variant. It seems a waste of time to discuss these statistical manipulations based on history. Wake up America, there is a new world order and it has nothing to do with the popular vote. It has to do with power.

There continues to be solid evidence that our elections were manipulated. There was evidence from the beginning and no investigation took place. But as with everything else that really matters to the american people this issue has been consistently swept aside. These folks started a war, based on lies and manipulation. A war in which real human beings are dying. Why does anyone believe they will give up this power?? If they are willing to kill people for money, what won't they do?? If they are willing to subvert the constitution, for the sake of money and power, why does anyone believe that the usual democratic structure, without at least an investigation, will produce anything but the same results?? I cannot figure out why only a few are intelligently discussing the fact that our democracy quite possibly is no longer a democracy and that perhaps that is why G.W Bush does not care about polls at all. He knows that there are other ways to win. No he isn't running but his world view is in power and this is peak oil time. There will be no more oil in a few years, and they know that it is only a matter of time before the money making capacity of that venture is over. For those in the oil business, these are the golden years. I do not think that elections or popular vote will cause anything but a distraction. They have the power. How many power mongers in history have willingly let go of the reigns when they got there illegally? We should be focusing on making sure that our election process is fair. Bush said he'd help Lieberman...if it's a tight election, don't bet on the results.

Nonsense. You overestimate exit polls and underestimate the difficulty in beating an incumbent presidnet.

All you're doing is chasing away voters and making them more cynical.

i had not seen this before. it's a good history tool for thinking about the present.

thanks

and for the political arithmetik cite too.

I would disagree that "the landscape is different with redistricting and the professional marketing of the GOP vs the amateur Dems." I think the picture is much more favorable to the Dems.

In a paper called The Redistricting Myth Johathan Krasno showed that what people often assume is an advantage by redistricting is really just the advantage of incumbency, particularly the fundraising advantage, and the fact that so few races were being challenged, in a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy. In 2004 the parties spent half of their money on just 11 races. In many races the Dem was outspent 5-1. Moreover, overly aggressive redistricting has actually resulted in more marginal GOP seats.

This year, however, the Dems have filed for a record 419 House seats, as compared to 383 for the R's. This means that sveral R's are seeing serious competition for the first time in years, competition for which they may not have been quite ready. Think Deborah Pryce in OH-15, whose first TV ad misspelled her name; James Walsh in NY-25, who was caught using old campaign materials which had endorsements he had not received this time around; and Curt Weldon's inept campaigning in PA-06.

The Dem challengers are no longer under-funded. Dem fundraising has hit record levels. The DCCC is highlighting 32 challengers under its Red-to-Blue program, for whom they have raised $4.2 million. In short, Dems are trying harder, and have vastly expanded the field.

As a result, the Cook Report now shows 75 competitive races, of which 55 are Republican-held seats. Of the remainder, the Dems have 182 safe seats, and the R's have 178 safe seats. Of the competitive R seats, one (TX-22, Delay) is deemed "lean Dem." Now 17 R-held seats are toss-ups, while none of the Dem-held seats are. The R's have 18 "Lean R seats" and the Dems have 9 "Lean Dem." There are 19 "Likely R seats to 10 "likely Dem."

And even Wyoming is no longer a "safe R" seat. The R's have nominated such right-wingers in Idaho and Colorado that "Republicans for Grant" has been organized in ID-01 and "Republicans for Fawcett" in CO-03.

I could go on, but it should be clear that the GOP is on the defensive and the Dems are in better shape than they have been since losing the House in 1994, and probably well before that. This is no guarantee of victory, but the advantages of incumbency are not so great when, as you say, the President's popularity is in the toilet and the GOP Congress has nothing to point to as a reason to be returned to power.

my comment about landscape is to suggest we are not gaining 40 seats with an approval of 42%. But Mimikatz, here's the clincher as to your point thet D's are in good shape:

What good is having terror inch up as a worry, when it doesn't benefit R's?

link

If we compare the post minus pre approvals WITHIN poll, thus removing house effects, we get the following changes from pre to post: +1 -1 +2 +2 0 for an average change of +0.8%.

The conclusion is clear. No impact of the plot on presidential approval directly.

The plot may well have increased the salience of terrorism and the sense of threat. We have seen terrorism rise as the "most important problem" in some polls. But so far at least, that has had no discernible effect on presidential approval.

I also for got to mention that the GOP has given up hope of taking Dem seats.

I agree that the Dems aren't going to take 40 seats. But the polling in races where Dems are challenging is showing Dems stronger than one might have expected. And with races tightening in unexpected places, it becomes that much harder for the GOP to craft a message that is going to staunch the bleeding. All of this is to say that there i every reason to be hopeful and to work diligently for victory in November.

What you're doing here in this entry is what we call 'wishful thinking.'

When the polls go your way, you're right there trumpeting the results. When they go Bush's way, you bend over backwards to argue why the numbers are lying.

We're the reality-based community, remember? We gotta learn to deal with the fact that the Republicans are making some real gains in the polls since the spring. Pretending that this isn't true doesn't help our cause. We need to acknowledge that GWB is more popular and trustworthy now than he was 6 months ago, and figure out why that is.

This is key.

Check out page 16 of the NYTimes poll - the question on self-identified ideology.

The percentage of self-identified liberals has been higher over the past 4 months than it ever has in the 14 year history of the NYTimes poll. It's 24% currently, and was 25% in May.

And likewise, the percentage of self-identified conservatives has been lower over the past 4 months than it has since the government shutdown in late '95.

These historic highs and lows are only by a couple of percentage points, so it's too early to declare a permanent shift in the self-identified ideology numbers. It could just be a temporary wave that will help Democrats this November and then disappear. But it's worth noting.

tweez, you don't know how to read polls. i don't know exactly what point you're making other than 40 is better than 30, but 40 is so bad as to boggle the mind - and Bush isn't at 40.

ARG has another Bush poll out today showing Bush frozen at 36, no movement post-bomb plot. That's an awful number.

And the poll numbers in contested Congressional races are definitely trending in favor of the Dems.

these polls look good for democrats,
but i am not hearing a consistent set of criticisms of bush and the republican congress from national democratic leaders or the candidates themselves

absent that

i truly fear that in november

many republican voters and republican-leaning "independents",

standing in the voting booth,

will touch a democratic lever, hesitate a second, and then tell themselves that they are just not quite ready to go to jesus -

and they'll pull those republican levers one more time.

democrats have to get those wavering republicans/independents moving down the aisle BEFORE november.

"democrats have to get those wavering republicans/independents moving down the aisle BEFORE november."

Sure they do, but not until after Labor Day. Note that all the polls that bother to check show greater Dem intensity. R's are discouraged.

House 2006

Republican-Held Seats: The overall House picture for Republicans is bleak, although not hopeless. The British apprehension of the sky-bombing plotters has at least briefly helped Republicans catch up with Democrats in the generic ballot survey. But aside from that spike, if the election were held today, the GOP would probably lose 26 seats and their congressional majority.

There is still time left, but the buzz on the Hill is that many Republican staffers -- including those working for safe members -- are seeking employment elsewhere, dreading the miserable possibility of life in the congressional minority.


link

Okay, you convinced me.
A Dem takeover of the house and senate is imminant because of Bush's bad poll numbers.
I get it.
Should I open the champagne tonight?

No, I'll wait to open the champagne until the next poll comes out showing Bush at 40%, which IS bad by anyone's reckoning.

I'll REALLY celebrate when the poll after that shows him at 41%, because that's no improvement at all and within the MOE. I mean, 41% for a sitting president is terrible there's no doubt.

No, actually I'll wait on the champagne until November or until Bush hits 29% approval, whichever comes first.

tweez, you got it backwards. DON"T sell the champagne becuse of an imaginary Republican comeback. NEVER open the champagne until after November.

More evidence the Rs are in trouble from Gallup (the outlier that has you all frazzled):

Public confidence that the United States and its allies are winning the war against terrorism does not appear to have been boosted by the recently thwarted terrorist attack in London. Only about a third of Americans say the United States is winning, with the majority of the rest saying neither the United States nor the terrorists are winning the war, a pattern similar to that which has been found for much of the last two years.

http://www.gallup.com/nl/?24241,AlertPE,8/24/2006,

This is the issue R's are banking on.

tweez, a PS for you:

1. polls don't predict the future, they're a snapshot of the present or (as in this case) the past. I said so at the onset.
2. polls don't win elections. Candidates and their field work win welections
3. these are nonetheless encouraging polls (click on the other linbks I've provided) based on data (links supplied), not "wishful thinking" as you've described it.

If you do not understand that, (and by your subsequent comments I suspect you don't), then my comment to you stands. You don't know how to read polls.

you're right: not until after labor day.

and i've been counting on that.

but beginning labor day at dawn, i'm expecting a full-scale democratic assault on the bush domestic and foreign policy "legacy" (legacy to to this nation, that is) from sept 'til november.

katrina, brownie, fema, lieberman's oversight of fema, dept of homeland security, airport security would be a great little corner of the cloth to start tugging at.

but it probably doesn't matter where you start pulling threads. just keep pulling at them.

let the unraveling of bush's dazzling coat of lies begin.

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we all know bush sucks or he used to suck....lets see what the new guy has in store for us

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