The Next War and Phase II

by emptywheel

By now the link to James Bamford's latest Rolling Stone article has circulated widely in the blogosphere. There were two details in it I had not yet heard. First, that we currently have a same-day strike capability against Iran.

In November 2003, Rumsfeld approved a plan known as CONPLAN 8022-02, which for the first time established a pre-emptive-strike capability against Iran. That was followed in 2004 by a top-secret "Interim Global Strike Alert Order" that put the military on a state of readiness to launch an airborne and missile attack against Iran, should Bush issue the command. "We're now at the point where we are essentially on alert," said Lt. Gen. Bruce Carlson, commander of the 8th Air Force. "We have the capacity to plan and execute global strikes in half a day or less."

And second, Bamford confirms what many observers of the AIPAC scandal had surmised, that the FBI is after some bigger spy for Israel, a Mr. X.

But as the Pentagon moved the country closer to war with Iran, the FBI was expanding its investigation of AIPAC and its role in the plot.

[snip]

To locate the spy sometimes referred to as Mr. X, agents working for Szady began focusing on a small group of neoconservatives in the Pentagon—including Feith, Ledeen and Rhode.

Both disconcerting facts in their own right. But I'd like to consider the article--and the last bit--in light of Pat Roberts' refusal to complete Phase II of the Iraq intelligence investigation.

The latest update on Roberts' intransigence about the Phase II investigation comes from Spencer Ackerman reporting to TPMM (as a side note--did TNR not think this was news? Why not?).

Not even last November's Democratic shutdown of the Senate has managed to pry the report out of Roberts, and committee insiders aren't hopeful that anything will change. A particular bone of contention is what the committee should say about Douglas Feith's famous Pentagon intelligence operation, which sought to highlight mostly-illusory links between Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein.

(The other bone of contention, of course, is evaluating administration speeches to see what they did with the shitty intelligence they received.)

Roberts has managed to stall the Dougie Feith part of the investigation the same way he avoided any consideration of the source of the Niger forgeries, by "deferring" to an ongoing investigation. In the case of the Niger forgeries, that meant Roberts avoided all mention of the Neocons role in stovepiping the Niger claims by pointing to the mythical FBI investigation on them. In the case of Dougie Feith's trumped up claims of a connection between Al Qaeda and Iraq, Roberts has pointed to the Defense Department's IG investigation of Feith's antics.

So let's see. That means the Defense Department investigation is moving along at the pace Rummy wants it to. And the only way to get Roberts to budge on the issue is to give his chairmanship to Rockefeller by winning back the Senate. It's not even clear that'll get us closer to an investigation of Feith. Larisa reported a full Friedman ago that it wasn't so much the ongoing investigation, as stonewalling on the part of Defense.

At the heart of the Senate Intelligence Committee's delay is the fact that Feith and the Defense Department refuse to provide documents and witnesses to the Committee. Senate sources say that Feith and the Pentagon have made the case that they will not share any information until the Senate provides them with full documentation of what the investigation is looking into, documentary evidence that Senate staff have acquired, and any other key findings that Feith's lawyers believe should be made available to them.

So Feith--and Rummy--won't let the Senate investigate Feith unless it reveals precisely what kind of dirt it has on Feith. That's what counts for oversight in the era of the Eunuch Congress, I guess.

Now put this back into the context of Bamford's article. The FBI busted Larry Franklin for cooperating with AIPAC and Israeli officials to help sway America's Iran policy, but after Michael Ledeen set him up with a crack lawyer, Franklin got a whole lot less cooperative. Now the remaining AIPAC charges rest on really dicey Constitutional ground. The FBI would like to investigate Chalabi for acting as a double agent, but apparently, when he last came to the US, State shielded him with diplomatic protection. From Bamford again:

Yet the FBI has been unable to so much as question Chalabi as part of its ongoing espionage case. Last November, when Chalabi returned to the United States for a series of speeches and media events, the FBI tried to interview him. But because he was under State Department protection during his visit, sources in the Justice Department say, the bureau's request was flatly denied.

"Chalabi's running around saying, 'I have nothing to hide,' " says one senior FBI official. "Yet he's using our State Department to keep us from him at the same time. And we've got to keep our mouth shut."

And the Senate can't get at Feith because his buddy Rummy is protecting him.

I used to think Roberts just timed his intransigence according to the next election. He postponed the politically charged aspects of the Iraq intelligence investigation past the 2004 presidential election, and now he has (apparently) succeeded in pushing it out further, past at least the 2006 election (and we'll only be able to investigate then if we win the Senate, which isn't likely).

But it may not be just elections Roberts is stalling past. The Neocons obviously want their Iraq now, faster please, as Ledeen writes at the end of almost every column. Who knows whether the Lebanon crisis will morph into a full regional war. But at the least, the Neocons went on the record yesterday predicting the failure of Condi's diplomatic approach and her transfer just after the elections. So it's possible Roberts just needs to delay until then.

They've managed so far to obscure how they trumped up the last war. Will they manage to do so long enough to give them time to trump up the next war?

Comments

[John Casper]

The thought of Lebanon collapsing into civil war too puts all my anxiety about Fitz's investigation into perspective. With that said, it would still be great to hear some good news from Fitz. Thanks emptywheel.

[Semanticleo]

It's not a huge leap to the coclusion that 'Mr X' is Doug Feith.
I wonder if the offensive (or 'defensive) in Lebanon is part of
the cabalistic master plan, and the next stage for the 'Next War'.

[orionATl]

now this is really interesting.

i'm confident that there is a path thru the labyrinth of neocon manipulation of us foreign policy. but boy it sure is hard to piece together the sections of that trail, all the more when congressmen sit on parts of the map.

thanks for continuing on, a few fact-feet at a time.

[Mimikatz]

It is hard to believe that Bush would fire or do anything to Condi that would diminish her, given their close bond. Unless they threaten to expose him--giving him a taste of his own tactics. Cheney seems clearly to be on the neocons side here. Sooner or later someone (on that side) is going to seriously overplay their hand. If Bush doesn't like the job now, it will only get worse.

[eCAHNomics]

It's even more discouraging than anyone has stated. The neocons have NOT obscured what they have done. It's mostly out there for any member of the public to read. There are books and books, all revealing one aspect or another of the scuzzy goings-on. The fact that Rove was instrumental in leaking Plame has even been in the MSM.

Despite all this, there is no accountability and no stopping W. (We now learn that the SCOTUS Hamden decision doesn't even apply to Hamden.)

Anyone who thinks that investigations or more information coming out or more court cases will stop this crowd is hallucinating.

06 elections will be fixed.

Instead of blogging, we'd all be better off building bomb shelters.

BTW, don't expect anything from Fitz. The most convincing hypothesis I've heard is that W told Fitz he'll pardon Libby after 11/06, which means it's not worthwhile for Fitz to do anything else.

[Davis X. Machina]

David Wurmser still working for Cheney?

[victoria2dc]

The Neocons obviously want their Iraq now, faster please, as Ledeen writes at the end of almost every column.

Emptywheel,

Didn't you mean IRAN instead of Iraq? That's the way I read the original @ New Yorker.

[ab initio]

The US/Israel neocon "hope" to provide the knock-out punch to Hezbollah and through that to advance their war timetable on Syria and Iran is not happening according to plan.

Nasrallah in a taped speech (I read a translation on dKos) yesterday stated what has been reported here that Israel had a long standing plan to attack and decapitate Hezbollah. The timing was October (doesn't that look near Nov?). Hezbollah acted to deprive Israel the element of surprise. And that seems to have worked in Hezbollah's favor as they are still standing, firing rockets and have inflicted numerous casualties on IDF troops during the battles for Maroun Ras and Bint Jbail which are just a few miles from the Israeli border.

Israel today has called up more reserves and have stated they do not intend a major land invasion of southern Lebanon immediately. At the same time the Israeli cabinet stated that they were concerned that Syria would inadvertently be drawn into the conflict and they wanted to ensure that did not happen. Haaretz has also reported that Nasrallah will meet with Assad and the Syrian intelligence chief today in Damascus. Whatever the scenario in terms of a deal and the nature of deal, Hezbollah will now achieve hero status in the Arab street for fighting down the mighty Israel/US military machine twice and this would accrue to the benefit of Iran. They Cheneyites gave Iraq on a platter to Iran. Are they through their misjudgement in Lebanon strengthening them further?

How will the Cheneyites play this unfolding scenario? They have been stumped once again with their looneybin tunes. Even their favorite Arab regimes are slowly walking back their condemnation of Hezbollah and pushing for a cessation of the "Israeli aggression" on Lebanon.

This rubber-stamp Repub Congress will do everything they can to prevent the truth of the extent of the manipulation of the country to disasterous ends both here at home and abroad. I am not even certain the Dems if they gain a majority in the House will invetigate to shed light on the extent of the subversion of our constitution and system of government by the Cheneyites as what could come out would potentially shatter the confidence of the American people in our political system and goverment.

[victoria2dc]

ab initio says:

How will the Cheneyites play this unfolding scenario? They have been stumped once again with their looneybin tunes. Even their favorite Arab regimes are slowly walking back their condemnation of Hezbollah and pushing for a cessation of the "Israeli aggression" on Lebanon.

http://www.insightmag.com/Media/MediaManager/Condi2.htm

Dump Condi: Foreign policy conservatives charge State Dept. has hijacked Bush agenda

The conservatives, who include Newt Gingrich, Richard Perle and leading current and former members of the Pentagon and National Security Council, have urged the president to transfer Miss Rice out of the State Department and to an advisory role. They said Miss Rice, stemming from her lack of understanding of the Middle East, has misled the president on Iran and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Remember learning about the battle between Cheney's cabal and Powell's State Department? Remember the after war stories describing the cabal by Powell's chief, Wilkerson?

This is the EXACT same story. They are fighting to nuke Iran. I don't think there is any doubt about it.

Let's say a prayer that Bush trusts Condi more than Cheney and that he will not allow the Israeli's to lure him in.

"The president has yet to understand that people make policy and not the other way around," a senior national security policy analyst said. "Unlike [former Secretary of State Colin] Powell, Condi is loyal to the president. She is just incompetent on most foreign policy issues."

Humm... how would you like that kind of force against you? These guys are pigs at best. Of course we know that they initiated the neocons will do anything to support Israel's security plan, which has proved to be wrong time and time again, including treason! They care more about Israel than their own country and they'll do anything to get Condi out of their way. Newt is one scary guy… and he is running for president!

The criticism of Miss Rice has been intense and comes from a range of Republican loyalists, including current and former aides in the Defense Department and the office of Vice President Dick Cheney. They have warned that Iran has been exploiting Miss Rice's inexperience and incompetence to accelerate its nuclear weapons program. They expect a collapse of her policy over the next few months.

I would change the first sentence to read as follows: The criticism of Miss Rice has been intense and comes from a range of Republican Israeli loyalists, including current and former aides in the Defense Department and the office of Vice President Dick Cheney.

My interest is in understanding the REAL deal behind our fervent support of Israel despite their failure at everything they do to live in peace.

I've decided that the Israeli's a) don't want to live in peace, b)they are being used by the OIL and CORPORATE forces that want to take over the Middle East and see them as the central staging ground, c) they have entered an agreement with the cabal to be the bad guys and drop the nuke on Iran to save Israel, or none of the above and d) they seriously want to live in peace and have just been bought out by the Israeli equivalent of the neocons.

"We are sending signals today that no matter how much you provoke us, no matter how viciously you describe things in public, no matter how many things you're doing with missiles and nuclear weapons, the most you'll get out of us is talk," former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said.

This threat of nuclear weapons is the exact same thing they terrorized the American public with on the run-up to the war in Iraq. Do you see this or am I just imagining it all? I would not want to be in Condi's Ferragamo shoes with my long, thin neck being surrounded by a beautiful string of pearls that the neocons are trying to strangle her with right now! It's not that I like or trust her, but she must have some degree of moral clarity. Yes? No?

[Vicki Satta]

One more comment and then I promise to quit getting stupid ideas about their plans to nuke Iran.

I trust and respect Juan Cole. Read his comment on the entrance of al-Qaeda to the Muslim cause at:

http://www.juancole.com/

Thursday, July 27, 2006 Al Qaeda enters Fray

The Israeli occupation of Jerusalem has long been an al Qaeda bugbear. It sent Richard Reid to case El Al, israeli airlines. It hit Israeli tourists in Mombasa and the Sinai. But Bin Laden always avoided investing in an area where there was already an active insurgency. He also could not join in with heretical Shiites like Hizbulah.

Ayman al Zawahiri today made a change in both policies. He wants al Qaeda to pile on in Gaza and to defend Hizbullah in Lebanon.

The Sunni Arab regimes have been reluctant to press too hard for ceasefire because they see Hizbullah as an agent of Iran. This foot dragging has been unpopular among the public. Al Qaeda is now playing to that gallery.

As usual, Israel is radicalizing the Muslim world. The US, too, will suffer.
Zawahiri has turned to pan Islam and the Near Enemy. He is willing to help Nasrallah and the Qassam Brigades. It is a historic about face. It could be significant. More later

It's critical to find out if this tape is real or not.

[pol]

This is OT, but the Rolling Stone talks about Michael Ledeen's involvement in all of this. What disgusts me is that there is a group that meets once a month at Walter Reed Hospital to throw a party for all the soldiers who have been wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan. Guess who's wife has been instrumental in making these a success?

http://www2.nationalreview.com/magazine/20041231/20041231.pdf (p. 25)

I guess Barbara does it out of guilt.

[Meteor Blades]

Of all the stuff in the Bamford piece, the part that irked me most was about Chalabi.

Let me get this straight. Here's a guy that obtained - from whom? - classified information that he probably passed on to folks that not only the NeoCons consider to be America's mortal enemy. This information, which probably originated with a NeoCon source (or at least a fan of the NeoCons), demolished a long-standing and major intelligence conduit at a crucial moment.

Some people would call this treason.

And yet the State Department gave Chalabi what amounted to diplomatic immunity so the FBI couldn't question him about the source of that classified information. I think a new kind of punctuation is needed at the end of such a sentence. Even an interrobang doesn't do the job.

Upsidedownism is nothing new to American politics, but it's hard to imagine that anyone could hone it to a finer edge than the Bush Regime.

[The Confidence Man]

HOLY CRAP: there's a REALLY weird nugget buried at the end of a paragraph at the bottom of page 4:

Franklin and Gilon would normally meet amid the weight machines and punching bags at the Pentagon Officers Athletic Club, where Franklin passed along secret information regarding Iran's activities in Iraq, its missile-testing program and even, apparently, New York Times reporter Judith Miller.

Uh ... just what "secret information" would a Pentagon official have to offer an Israeli agent about Judy Fucking Miller?

[tryggth]

Good idea...
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/article1201307.ece

Fly in the ointment...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2002/05/31/AR2005112200804.html

[freepatriot]

so we Nuc Iran and everything will be better ???

that's their fucking plan ???

I don't get it. how does becoming the world's most hated country make anything better ???

and here's something else that's bothering me:

am I the only person in the world who realizes that hezbollah is a LOT MORE than just a terrorist organization ???

Hezbollah is a political entity that controls about a third of the Lebennonese Parliment (or what ever it is)

Hezbollah is also a provider of social services, and a quazi religious movement within the Shia sect of Islam

all of these idiots talking about "degrading" Hezbollah's influence or power are a bunch of fucking dolts

did Pearl Harbor "degrade" the power of the United States political system of social services ???

some people need to pull their heads out of their assholes and read up on Sun Tzu

Know Your Fucking Enemy

anybody ???

[lukery]

i've finally(!) read the bamford piece. per Meteor Blades' comments about State giving Chalabi immunity(?!), Sibel Edmonds claims that:
1) State is very corrupt (in her experience, the pentagon comes second)
2) Sibel points to Feith and Perle
3) Sibel says that the AIPAC case and her case (and Plame) are all essentially the same case.

Also, remember that the AIPAC ('franklin') case dates back to at least 1999 - and that Franklin has long been considered a patsy.

[questionman]

I can see with my owns eyes that the three buildings that collapsed in the WTC where brought down with demolations explosive. But it has always been hard for me to believe
that someone or some other country was involved with it other than Al Qeda. With Israels invasion of Lebonan it may have opened my eyes a little wider. I now consider the therory that perhaps Israel and either "the" or "a" neocon faction have been working together as individuals outside of "Israel official" government and "USA official government" in a clandestine effort to protcet Israel. I think the entire reason for all this caos in the M.E. is strickly to set up an "invisible shield" of protection" if you like for Israel. What Hitler did to the Jewish people during WWII was so horrific and the fact that the Nazi's actually got away with trying to exterminate the Jewish race for maybe ten years or more before they were stopped has left some of the Jewish people and their allies with a certain type of Post Tramatic Stress Disorder Syndrome. The Jewish race never wants to be taken advantage or exterminated ever again. And who the hell would? But this PSD of it's own kind has led some of the more zealous to act in this preemptive way about every little thing. Basically "Israel" the "Neocons" and "Bush" need some serious time on "the couch".