Bush League

by emptywheel

Four months ago I asked the following two questions:

• What would happen to oil prices (and the global economy) if Iran and Venezuela withdrew their oil from the market? (Not that I have a reason to believe Chavez would do so, but he is on the receiving end of Bush's warmongering just as surely as Iran, and Iran and Venezuela have a long history of cooperation to assert the oil weapon.)
• Who could hold out longer, Iran (and Venezuela) without oil revenues, or the US military machine in the face of severely diminished supplies?

Well, now I have a reason to believe Chavez would join Iran in withdrawing its oil from the world market. Apparently, Iranian President Ahmedinejad and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez have looked into each other's eyes and found a soulmate.

Following talks, Chavez pledged that his country would "stay by Iran at any time and under any condition," state television reported.

Ahmedinejad said he saw in Chavez a kindred spirit.

"I feel I have met a brother and trench mate after meeting Chavez," Ahmedinejad was quoted as saying by state-run television. "We think Iran and Venezuela should share all experiences of each other, stay by each other and they have to be supporters of each other."

Not that I'm surprised. Two populist leaders, both sitting on top of large reserves of black gold, both targets the US has named for regime change? Though I do look forward to learning whether that translation "trench mate" is accurate, because it's pretty damn provocative.

Meanwhile, it's looking like Bush's attempt to play hardball with Russia on WTO membership will cost Chevron and ConocoPhillips a big chunk of Russia's oil business.

After failing to secure a bilateral deal with the United States regarding Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to favor Norwegian companies Hydro and Statoil and to reject the bids by America’s Chevron and ConocoPhillips.

I guess maybe when Bush looked into Putin's eyes and got a sense of his soul, he must have missed something?

And to square the circle, um, love triangle, Chavez also stopped by for a visit and arms deal with Putin, coming away with some fighter jets and plans for a Kalashnikov factory in Venezuela.

It's not that any of this is even marginally surprising. Nor is it unprovoked. The US, particularly under Bush, has played hardball with Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, assuming they had no recourse but to bow to superior US power, assuming we could replace the mullahs and Chavez at will (thankfully, I guess, Bush harbors no fantasies about regime changing Putin).

But it seems clear that, even while the US digs in its heels and refuses to deal fairly with the rest of the world, the rest of the world has taken notice and is banding together for its own self-preservation. Bush's most spectacular foreign policy accomplishment, thus far, is to encourage the formation of a nascent anti-US block with the strategic placement--and oil--to present a real challenge to our power.

This is the logical outcome of Neocon intransigence. In their determination to prevent the growth of any rival, they have fostered precisely that rival. And that rival has oil, enough to act as a new swing producer in the world.

Anybody wondering now why we just agreed to send $2.9 billion of tanks "to protect critical Saudi infrastructure"?

Comments

[JohnLopresti]

US policy in the Americas has a myopic tradition. A WaPo attorney recently wrote after a meeting in the Bolivarian country of Venezuela, voicing some chagrin and worries about the institution of the press in that country. I think conditions for the press are a real litmus for any civilization, even though newspapers can distract a thoughtful person from less salacious but more worthy topics.
The WaPo attorney's op-ed.
E+P's succinct comment; a press release from the journalists' organization which sponsored the meeting recently this month in Venezuela
J

[kaleidescope]

Given the current tightness of the world oil market, all Venezuela and Iran would have to do is to agree that each would withold half of their oil production from the world market. Prices may increase so that they actually increase their revenues by doing this.

[emptywheel]

True, kaleidoscope. And if they got Putin to join in? They're RICH!!! And the ugly Yankee agressor is brought low in an army full of useless SUVs.

One curious note. Ahmedinejad was on the phone with King Abdullah (the important one) in the last week, just before Abdullah's requests that Bush end the Lebanese killing got more strident.

Noted without comment.

[Mimikatz]

Well, if we're demanding that Iran give an answer by mid-August, they should be able to tighten supplies just in time for the elction.

[mainsailset]

here's a chicken or the egg question. If Iran and Venezuela did decide, as might Putin, to restrain the flow of crude to the US and we faced a critical shortage, who would be alloted fuel, the American public? The military in Iraq? GE? And how quickly, would our economy, which is running on vouchers flying like Icarus too close to the sun, slide into empty.

[emptywheel]

Damn, Mimikatz. Does that mean I better cancel my driving vacation for the all-important Labor Day weekend (joking--I'll be marching with local candidates and knocking on doors).

mainsailset

Um. Can I just answer yes?

[prostratedragon]

I guess maybe when Bush looked into Putin's eyes and got a sense of his soul, he must have missed something?

Uh, Putin laughing at him?

Reminds you, given a standard mark-up to cover the large number of those doubtless thinking the same thoughts as here but just not writing in about them, that films also rise to the top.

[Shaun]

...thankfully, I guess, Bush harbors no fantasies about regime changing Putin

Oh, really? Let's go to the tape:

Putin: "We certainly would not want to have the same kind of democracy as they have in Iraq, I will tell you quite honestly."
Bush: "Just wait."

I wish I were more than half-joking, but that has always been what Bush's response sounded like to me.

[kaleidescope]

Calvin Trillin's take on what Bush thought he saw in Putin's eyes:

Bush and Putin talk together,
To each other's charms succumb.
Bush thinks Putin can be trusted.
Putin thinks that Bush is dumb.

Bush and Putin end their meeting,
Smile until their mouths are numb.
Bush thinks Putin can be trusted.
Putin thinks that Bush is dumb.

[freepatriot]

welcome to my world. I've been aware of this possibility since Hugo met with the Iranians (last summer ???)

I've noticed a lot less news about Hugo since then, which leads me to think that somebody told george about the possible problems down the road ...

we import something like 50% of our oil ???

it would be over in a month

anybody wanna bet we wouldn't swap bush, cheney, and rummy, to turn the tap back on ???

[general panzer]

Firebrand Venezuelan leader Chavez visits Vietnam

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060731/wl_afp/vietnamvenezueladiplomacy_060731060443;_ylt=Arss6hb_rIwAqxIMWZxP4bOQOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

Hugo Chavez, the first Venezuelan president to visit Vietnam, recalled that both nations had fought anti-imperalist struggles, Venezuela's fight against the Spanish and Vietnam's battles to expel the French and the Americans.

"Since I was a child, and also as a soldier, I have admired the courage of the Vietnamese soldiers," Chavez said during a welcoming ceremony in Hanoi with Vietnam's President Nguyen Minh Triet.

Vietnam has major oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea but so far lacks refining capacity. In June, an executive delegation of state-owned PetroVietnam travelled to Venezuela for an official visit.