Anatomy of a White House Smear, 3.1

by emptywheel

Twice before, I have tried to tell the Plame Story as a narrative. Lots has been revealed since I last told the story, just before Libby got indicted, so I thought I'd update it here. I'll warn you--it has grown from big to gigantic, so I'll do it in three parts or more.

The Background--Niger Claims and Power Struggles: 2002-2003

I'll start with some background. There are two reasons why members of the Bush Administration were reckless enough to out a covert spy. First, Joe Wilson's criticisms risked exposing the Administration's efforts to sustain claims about the Niger intelligence they knew to be false. Circumstantial evidence suggests that Neocons Michael Ledeen and Harold Rhode may have played a role in planting the Niger forgeries and John Bolton played a role in stovepiping the forgeries within the US Intelligence Community (IC). And whether or not BushCo had a active, deliberate role in producing the forgeries, they certainly sustained the claim that Niger tried to sell Iraq yellowcake even after that claim had been debunked. eRiposte details the many warnings against the Niger intelligence here, and he proves that the SOTU claim depended on the Niger intelligence here. In other words, the "16 words" in the State of the Union Address (SOTU)--claiming that Iraq had sought uranium from Africa--were based on the Niger claim, and the Administration had known that claim to be bogus by October 2002.

I'll add just two critical points: the INR Iraq nuclear analyst--whose October 15 debunking of the Niger forgeries appears to have been suppressed--definitely warned WINPAC (the same part of the CIA that eventually approved the SOTU claims) that the documents were forgeries by January 12 or 13, 2003, two weeks before the SOTU. Also in January, the National Intelligence Council (the intelligence organization charged with issuing definitive statements about the IC's judgments) issued a memo just completely dismissing the intelligence.

The Niger story was baseless and should be laid to rest. ... the memo ...arrived at the White House as Bush and his highest-ranking advisers made the uranium story a centerpiece of their case for the rapidly approaching war against Iraq.

In other words, the Bush Administration was warned they should not use the Niger claim just before they used it in the SOTU. So when, in a March CNN appearance, Joe Wilson stated "the U.S. government knew more about the Niger uranium matter than it was letting on," the comment had to have made BushCo worry that their deliberate disregard for warnings from the IC would be exposed, regardless of whether it was Wilson's report--or other intelligence reports--that debunked the Niger claims.

And not only had the Bush Administration been warned before they used this intelligence. They were reminded they had been warned. Sometime in spring-summer 2003, Stephen Hadley did a review of the intelligence claims Bush used to justify war; he concluded the aluminum tube claim was based on discredited intelligence. And the INR memo--which Grossman briefed the White House on in June 2003--documented the INR analyst's January warning that the Niger documents were forgeries. BushCo had pleaded ignorance that the Niger documents were forgeries in March 2003, presumably so they could still launch their war. But as early as June 2003, more evidence surfaced that their plea of ignorance was a lie.

But that's not the only reason BushCo were reckless enough to out a covert agent. Up to and during the war, Cheney and Rummy's Defense Department were in an epic fight with State and some factions within the CIA over control of the Iraq reconstruction. This was no mere bureaucratic struggle. In fact, the Pentagon was making tactical military decisions designed to outflank or pre-empt State's efforts to establish a wide-ranging Iraqi interim government. They did this most notably when they flew Ahmed Chalabi and his forces into Iraq to undercut a State Department conference on Iraqi governance, and again when they flew Chalabi into Baghdad so he would be the first exile leader in the capital. The struggle between Defense and State may have extended so far that Judy Miller--by publishing an accusation made by an anonymous INC member--may have exposed Chalabi rival Saad Janabi as a CIA asset. Cheney's office (OVP) had already proven it was willing to go to great lengths to score points in its battle against State and CIA.

Data Collection and Pre-Leak Leaking: March to July 2003

So when a long-time State Department employee with ties to CIA's reality-based faction started publicly attacking the Bush Administration's Niger claims, BushCo struck back. Wilson describes
the smear as starting in March, in response to a CNN appearance.

After my appearance on CNN in early March 2003, when I first asserted that the U.S. government knew more about the Niger uranium matter than it was letting on, I am told by a source close to the House Judiciary Committee that the Office of the Vice President -- either the vice president himself or, more likely, his chief of staff, Lewis ("Scooter") Libby -- chaired a meeting at which a decision was made to do a "workup" on me. As I understand it, this meant they were going to take a close look at who I was and what my agenda might be.

Though the timing is unclear. Fitzgerald's subpoenas for Libby's notes all start in May, beginning the day of Kristof's column, then breaking until June, when things start heating up again.

Instead, we have sought (and thus presumably obtained) from the Office of Vice President all of Mr. Libby's notes for the time periods May 6 through May 10, 2003, June 1 through July 25, 2003, July 28, 2003 and July 29, 2003, and September 27 through October 13, 2003.

I don't know what to make of the discrepancy. I suspect BushCo started by assessing their vulnerabilities, putting together the larger defense strategy against claims they misused intelligence. Perhaps they got Hadley to do his review of intelligence claims and developed their plans to leak the NIE. But by May, it had became personal. They were looking for information on Wilson and got some on his wife, to boot.

Libby's indictment provides one chronology for how BushCo learned about Wilson's trip--and Plame's purported role in it. The following passage uses the indictment chronology, but fills in names and other relevant background.

May 29: Libby asks Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Marc Grossman, for "information concerning the unnamed ambassador’s [named in Kristof's column] travel to Niger to investigate claims about Iraqi efforts to acquire uranium yellowcake." Grossman provided Libby updates in May and June. Grossman's updates provided Libby with Wilson's name, if he didn't already have it. Grossman quit his position in December 2004 after Condi was named Secretary of State.

June 9: CIA faxes documents to Libby and one other person in OVP. The documents almost certainly include the CIA report on Joe Wilson's trip. The CIA report only mentions Wilson as "contact with excellent access who does not have an established reporting record", but two people in OVP wrote his name on the report. The Wilson report also described a 1999 Iraqi attempt to establish commercial relations with Niger. The documents may also have included details on a different 1999 trip, one Wilson took to Niger for the CIA, details about which would come up during the week of the leak. (The indictment does not explain who faxed the documents, or to what kind of resquest they were responding.)

On June 11 or 12, Marc Grossman briefed a White House meeting on the results of his search. Presumably, he provided the information included in the INR memo and the analyst notes the memo was based on. This would include the sentence, "In a February 19, 2002 meeting convened by Valerie Wilson, a CIA WMD manager and the wife of Joe Wilson, he previewed his plans and rationale for going to Niger [redacted]," and the note, "Meeting apparently convened by Valerie Wilson, a CIA WMD managerial type and the wife of Amb. Joe Wilson. with the idea that the agency and the larger USG could dispatch Joe to Niger to use his contacts there to sort out the Niger/Iraq uranium sale question." According to the cover sheet of this memo and one news report, this memo did not circulate beyond Marc Grossman in June.

On June 11, Libby talked to Robert Grenier, then CIA's head of Counter-Terrorism, about Wilson's trip. Grenier told Libby that Plame worked at CIA and "was believed to be responsible for sending Wilson on the trip." Grenier was fired from his position as head of CIA's Counter-Terorirsm group this Spring, allegedly because he was unwilling to use torture in the war on terror.

On June 12, Dick Cheney told Libby (purportedly based on information from someone at CIA) that Plame worked in Counter-Proliferation at CIA. As someone with extensive experience in intelligence, Libby would have known that Counter-Proliferation was in CIA's Directorate of Operations, the clandestine side of CIA.

By this point, then, Libby had enough information to provide almost all the information included in Novak's leak: details about Wilson's trip, Plame's purported role in organizing that trip, and her position in Counter-Proliferation which almost certainly made her a clandestine agent. One thing is not explained by the indictment, though--how Libby (or whoever leaked it to Novak) learned that Plame worked under her maiden name.

That's the story Fitzgerald tells, based largely on Libby's own notes and the testimony of a few witnesses (primarily Grossman and Grenier), in an indictment designed (I'm confident) to include hints about evidence of a larger conspiracy, particularly the involvement of Cheney, but not to provide the critical evidence for that charge. I suspect the names and roles of many participants were left out. And I suspect Fitzgerald may have intentionally left out details related to the INR memo (which may, in turn, describe how Libby got backchannel information on Plame from Bolton's shop at State).

Let the Leaking Begin: June 2003

Well, at some point in mid-June, Libby had a plan (to smear Wilson, to leak the NIE) and he had most of the information he would need to smear Wilson. This is when the leaking starts.

In mid-June (sometime between June 12 and June 22), a source who is almost certainly Richard Armitage told Bob Woodward that Valerie Wilson was involved in organizing the trip, and that she worked as a WMD analyst at the CIA. I suspect Armitage learned that detail from the back and forth on the INR memo (though I don't think he had seen the memo itself). And I suspect Woodward asked him about it to find out more about the background to a Walter Pincus story published on June 12, which included the following details:

The CIA's failure to share what it knew, which has not been disclosed previously, was one of a number of steps in the Bush administration that helped keep the uranium story alive until the eve of the war in Iraq, when the United Nations' chief nuclear inspector told the Security Council that the claim was based on fabricated evidence.

A senior intelligence official said the CIA's action was the result of "extremely sloppy" handling of a central piece of evidence in the administration's case against then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. But, the official added, "It is only one fact and not the reason we went to war. There was a lot more."

[snip]

However, the CIA did not include details of the former ambassador's report and his identity as the source, which would have added to the credibility of his findings, in its intelligence reports that were shared with other government agencies. Instead, the CIA only said that Niger government officials had denied the attempted deal had taken place, a senior administration said.

Woodward also spoke to Libby twice in June, on June 23 and in person on June 27; at the latter meeting, Libby leaked some of the contents of the NIE to Woodward, though he did not mention Plame at either meeting.

Judy spoke to Libby on June 23 too. I strongly suspect Libby provided her with a set of talking points--points he knew to be misleading, but that would absolve OVP for ignoring intelligence--so she could pursue the story with other sources (which she did).

"Was the intell slanted?"

The CIA was guilty of "selective leaking."

Their strategy was, "if we find [WMDs], fine, if not, we hedged."

Reports of Cheney embracing skimpy intelligence were "highly distorted."

The CIA "took it upon itself to try and find out more" by sending "a clandestine guy" to investigate.

"Veep didn't know of Joe Wilson ... Veep never knew what he did or what was said. Agency did not report to us."

"Wife works in bureau?"

"No briefer came in and said, 'You got it wrong, Mr. President,'"

Note that these talking points don't suggest Libby wanted Judy to reveal Plame's and Wilson's identity. Rather, it appears that he wanted her to raise the question publicly--did Wilson's wife work in the bureau (which Judy admits she understood to mean the CIA)? It appears Libby wanted Judy to "discover" Plame's identity herself and then leak it. I don't call her the A1 Cut-Out for nothing, you know.

Libby also may have leaked contents of the NIE to Judy. Judy admitted he did so on July 8 back when she was pretending to have spoken to Libby only in July. But there is a great deal of ambiguity regarding the NIE. The question of whether Judy testified to receiving this leak as early as June is critical because of another event. On July 2, according to Libby's testimony, Cheney authorized him to leak the NIE (and possibly Joe Wilson's trip report and another document supporting their argument). But wait a second, you may be asking!! I thought Libby leaked the NIE to Bob Woodward on June 23! Did he leak the still-classified NIE, or was he authorized to leak the document earlier? Well, that's why I think the NIE is the key to proving that Cheney orchestrated the Plame leak. Because apparently Libby has instructions in his notes saying he was supposed to leak something. We don't know when that note appears, but if the NIE leaking occurred (with authorization) in June, then the notation almost certainly doesn't relate to the NIE. If Fitzgerald can prove that the note doesn't relate to the NIE, Fitzgerald will provide circumstantial evidence that Cheney ordered Libby to leak Plame's identity.

Next Up: Leak Week

Update: A few changes per recommendations in the comments.

Comments

[kim]

What about the French discovering late in the last century that abandoned mines were being worked in Africa, and that a brisk trade in smuggled uranium had developed? I found that in the comments in your last thread about the Niger forgeries. Go look.
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[emptypockets]

good timing, emptywheel. I was seriously just thinking a day or two ago that I needed one of these.

[free patriot]

thanks in advance

I didn't read it yet, but i see you got the message

FEED ME, Seymore

the plameopiles were getting a little peckish

[Anatomy of Warnings]

The CIA took it upon itself to bomb Pakistan and he is now testifying for Plame. He'sputting her in jail as he does this....................................????

[4jkb4ia]

It was about time for another one of these. I was despairing of making sense of all the posts.

[harry]

I read recently (IIRC the NY Daily News) that sources close to Armitage said that he'd been one of the first to testify to Fitz, straight shooter etc.

If that's the case, how can he be Woodward's source, seeing as Woodward said his source said something like "I have to go and see Fitzgerald now" after the Libby indictment.

[QuickSilver]

EW, are we sure Grenier was fired altogether from the agency? Or that he was merely fired on February 6, 2006 from his position as CIA's "top counter-terrorism official", a position he had had for about a year? Grenier is 51 years old and a veteran of many overseas assignments. Today's New York Daily News seems to count Grenier as a current CIA employee, and I think that's still correct. I don't think he blew his whole career.

[Robj]

Best Plame narrative I've read so far, especially about the talking points that you ascribe to OVP in its pushback against Wilson and the CIA. I never quite got why the boondoggle scenario would be expected to have traction. Nobody goes to Niger on a boondoggle, after all, and despite what the right blogs et al say, Wilson's not a light weight that needed the work. But saying it was hedging by CIA to play it either way depending on the outcome is much more plausible -- i.e., if there are WMD, the trip can be quietly forgotten; but when the opposite turns out to be the case, Wilson is on hand to say the Admin was deaf to the intelligence. That story is much more likely to have legs. One thing about Libby and Rove, they knew how to feed the fish. Thanks for the insight.

[kim]

For more on what Wilson had to say, check out his LATimes op-ed for 2/6/03. He argued that we shouldn't invade because Saddam would surely use his chemical and biological weapons on our troops.
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[Jeff]

Very nice, emptwheel. Especially impressed by the explanation of the significance of the date-fudging on Bush's authorization of Libby to leak the otherwise classified NIE. One small detail: though I can't fully reconstruct the reasoning, I've convinced myself that Armitage leaked to Woodward between June 12 and June 15 (mainly on the basis of things Woodward has said and a televised report I caught of Carol Leonnig from the Post saying that the Woodward-source conversation happened in the first two weeks of June).

I cannot believe that we have still not heard more of the full story on that January 2003 NIC memo, what happened with it at the White House, and why there is no sign of it whatsoever in either the SSCI or the Robb-Silberman report. A while back Maguire and Cecil suggested Wilson may have known about it, and I think there might be something to that. Maybe you can ask him about it if you get a chance in Vegas.

[William Ockham]

Nice job (except for the Armitage bit, I ain't buying that until Armitage 'fesses up or Fitzgerald makes that claim). It's pretty obvious to me (after a bit of wavering) that my initial instinct that the June leaks were intended to launder them through friendly journalists and set up the "heard it from reporters" cover story. I also strongly suspect that Bush and Cheney authorized the leak and Libby noted that fact, albeit obscurely, in his famous notebooks.

[Pete]

Hurrah for the NextHurrah!!

[Marilyn Garis]

CNN LARRY KING LIVE
Interview with Colin Powell, Sharon Stone, Robert Downey Jr.
Aired October 17, 2005 - 21:00 ET

KING: What do you make of all of this Karl Rove leak story?

POWELL: I only know right now what I read in the paper. I appeared before the grand jury, the State Department. And some of us in the State Department had some knowledge of this matter. And we all immediately made ourselves available to the Justice Department and the FBI even before the prosecutor was...

KING: Was it an involved, interested grand jury?

POWELL: Yes.

(CROSSTALK)

KING: I mean, were they on tops of things?

POWELL: They were following what was going on. And I think we have been forthcoming in what was known within the department about it, the famous State Department memo that I was given by one of my staffers, which, by the way, never had the name Plame anywhere in the memo.

KING: No?

POWELL: No. A lot of press reports suggest the name was in the memo. It was not.

IS POWELL LYING, OR IS HE BEING COY BECAUSE THE REPORT HAD THE NAME VALERIE WILSON. IF HE KNEW THAT WHY WOULDN'T HE JUST SAY THAT INSTEAD OF MAKING A MISLEADING STATEMENT.

WHAT ARE YOU THOUGHTS? MAYBE YOU DISCUSSED AND I MISSED IT.

ALSO, A REPORTER BY THE NAME OF KATHLEEN PARKER WAS ON MATTHEWS WEEKEND SHOW. HE DOES A SEGMENT, "TELL ME SOMETHING THAT I DON'T ALREADY KNOW." SHE STATES THAT THE WORD ON ROVE IS DECLINATION? AND NOT TO EXPECT ANYTHING THIS WEEK OR NEXT.

I am not familiar with that term, declination. I am sure you are and can fill me/us in on this legal lingo.

[kim]

Ah, Powell taking a page from the Russert book with the cagy Mrs. Wilson/Valerie Plame parsing. Are you getting a clue to 'as if for the first time'. It is subjunctive, after all.

Declination, declination, declination, oh my stars,
You are lost and gone forever, dreadful sorrow, march of frogs.
==================================

[desertwind]

Compassworld says:

To understand declination you must first realize that there are two North Poles. There is a True Geographic North Pole at the top of the world, and a Magnetic North Pole. The Magnetic North Pole is always moving. It has been as much as 1,200+ miles from true north, but in 2005 is only around 500 miles from the True North Pole.

We typically say that a compass points to Magnetic North, not True North. Technically, that is not exactly true. The compass actually points in the directions of the horizontal component of the magnetic field where the compass is located, and not to any single point. Knowing the difference (measured in angular degrees) between true north and the horizontal trace of the magnetic field for your location allows you to correct your compass for the magnetic field in your area.

This angular difference is called your declination.

[emptywheel]

Jeff

Do you have the Leonnig article? I gave these dates because I suspect it was a response to the first Pincus article but we know it was before the second Pincus article (Woodward says when he read the second article he knew about Plame). But I'm happy to believe Woodward went to Armitage right after Pincus' first article.

Marilyn

No, Powell's right. The point is that someone knew Plame worked under Plame, and that she was an operative. You get neither of those from the INR memo (or the INR analyst notes). Therefore, it is not sufficient to the Novak leak.

Powell brings it up because he knows there was a lot of leakage during July 2005 meant to throw suspicion on the witnesses: himself, Ari, and Armitage. But that leakage all depended on the INR memo.

[kim]

How sure are you of the meaning of the word 'operative' as Novak uses it?
============================================

[John Casper]

Really terrific emptywheel, thanks.
OT, desertwind, thank you.

[Melissa]

Hello,

Just wanted to let you know I linked to your blog in my column on CBSNews.com today. Thanks!

If you want to take a look, here's the link: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/05/23/blogophile/main1644914.shtml

Thanks,

Melissa

[Sebastian Dangerfield]

Marilyn, desertwind: "Declination" also is used to describe a prosecutor's decision not to prosecute. See, e.g., here. I sure hope Kathleen Parker doesn't have any inside line (and I dont' see how she could wihtout a leak from Fitzgerald's shop, which is of course unlikely in the extreme).

EW: One small matter. I don't think there's any solid evidence that Novak received a leak of Plame's maiden name. What makes you so sure? There's a certain am

[Sebastian Dangerfield]

Marilyn, desertwind: "Declination" also is used to describe a prosecutor's decision not to prosecute. See, e.g., here. I sure hope Kathleen Parker doesn't have any inside line (and I dont' see how she could wihtout a leak from Fitzgerald's shop, which is of course unlikely in the extreme).

EW: One small matter. I don't think there's any solid evidence that Novak received a leak of Plame's maiden name. What makes you so sure? There's a certain am

[Sebastian Dangerfield]

Sorry, the dog ate the rest of the post. Here's my quearie to EW:

EW: One small matter. I don't think there's any solid evidence that Novak received a leak of Plame's maiden name. What makes you so sure? There's a certain amount of circumstantial evidence suggesting otherwise -- viz., the leakers’ apparently persistent use of "Wilson's wife" as an identifier, as well as Rove's very careful "I didn't know her name. I didn't leak her name" non-denial denial (as if that makes the outing any less blameworthy); the absence of her name from the INR memo. And, for what it's worth, for direct evidence (however impeachable the source) there is of course Novak's own suggestion that he got her name from Who's Who. Now I know people (understandably) don't want to trust a thing he says, I think it quite plausible that he received leaks concerning “Wilson's wife” and that he did indeed do his own digging to locate the name.

[&y]

This is beautiful, emptywheel. I've been looking forward to a redux of the "Smear Redux" for a long time--mostly so I have a good link to send my mom when she asks me to explain "the whole Plame thing" for the Nth time: Mom context is important.

Thinly veiled blog pimping: I've been trying (through the scattered text boxes) to give the leak timeline some much-needed narrative, but I just don't see the big picture the way you do. This 3.1 post is concise, sourced, informed--all them good things. An instant classic on the Weblog Commentary and Review Papers list. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

[emptywheel]

Sebastian

The biggest piece of evidence he got her name is that later, when he publishes his BS disclaimer column on October 1, he first posts it using "Valerie Flame." As we know, that is something also leaked to Judy (I strongly suspect it was one of the covert names she used and that Novak used it--at the same time as he was making sure B&J was good and burned, to punish CIA for recommending an investigation). In other words, we have evidence that he was getting the same inside leak that Judy got. That is also how we know his Who's Who story is BS. As I suspect Carville was going to point out, you can find "Plame" from Who's Who, but not "Flame," which Novak also used. (Of coures, Novak didn't SAY he got the name from Who's Who--he said you could have. And to Phelps, he said they've gave it to him.)

The INR memo is completely unrelated to Rove's role, as both he and Luskin have said Rove never saw it, we have no reason to believe he saw it, and we have no evidence of it circulating to WH. In other words, the fact that Rove learned of Plame via means OTHER than the INR memo actually increases the chance that he learned from someone (like Libby) who knew of Plame's status and, presumably, name.

And yes, Rove used the term "Wilson's wife" with Cooper as did Pincus' leaker. But Libby used specific names, as did whoever leaked the Flame and Victoria names to Judy. Furthermore, I don't think you can assume Rove treated Novak, someone Rove has found to be a reliable recipient of leaks over a several decade relationship, and Matt Cooper, someone who had just gotten the White House beat a few weeks earlier with a notable tie to his Democratic wife, the same.

Finally, Novak's "I didn't leak her name" was his fourth position, after already having to admit that 1) in fact he DID speak with someone before Novak's article came out and 2) in fact he had spoken to Matt Cooper and 3) in fact he had spoken about Wilson's wife with Cooper. So I would say the evidence weighs against giving that any credence.

[&y]

Sebastian D. -- But what earthly reason did he have to write, "his wife, Valerie Plame, blah blah..." if "Plame" was not something the leakers instructed him to write? I get how he could have taken a leak of "Wilson's wife" and turned it into Plame. But why bother? She goes by "Valerie" or "Valerie Wilson." As I understand it, nobody called her "Plame" except her CIA contacts.

Novak's article would have been just as (supposedly) powerful and damning if he'd written, "but his wife Valerie is an agency blah blah blah." Somebody either told him her maiden name, or instructed him to make the column nastier by "digging up" her maiden name.