More Polls

by DemFromCT

Well, I just thought having some data might help further the discussion. Two polls not commented on in the last few polling posts are NPR and Rasmussen. For the NPR poll, there's some extra quotes of note:

A new poll of likely voters finds that President Bush and his party no longer have the advantage on issues of foreign policy and national security, which they used to dominate.

The poll, conducted for NPR by a Republican and a Democratic pollster, suggests that the ongoing instability in Iraq, the Dubai ports deal, job outsourcing and other global issues in the news lately appear to be weighing heavily on voters' minds in this midterm election year.

Republican pollster Glen Bolger says that, from his perspective, the results are a "bunch of ugly numbers."

The poll found the president's approval rating at 39 percent. Of the 58 percent of respondents who said they disapprove, a whopping 45 percent "disapprove strongly." When asked what pollsters call the generic ballot question -- "If the election were held today, would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican candidate?" -- those surveyed favored Democrats by one of the largest margins in decades, 52 percent to 37 percent. (That's a bigger margin than Republicans enjoyed just before they captured the House in 1994).

For Rasmussen:

Forty-one percent (41%) of American adults now approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President. That's just one point above the lowest level ever measured by Rasmussen Reports.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) disapprove. The President earns approval from 75% of Republicans, 14% of Democrats and 33% of those not affiliated with either major party. Until last fall, the President typically enjoyed approval ratings in the high-80s among Republicans. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Americans believe that President Bush should be censured, or formally reprimanded, by the U.S. Senate. The proposal, advocated by Senator Feingold, is not necessarily good news for the Democratic Party, but it has the potential to boost Feingold's standing within the Party. For the first time ever, a majority of Americans (52%) say that the U.S. mission in Iraq will be judged a failure. Just 32% believe history will judge it a success.

What's also interesting is that the intensity: strongly disapprove (42%) is double strongly approve (21%).

So what's that mean for Democrats? Back to NPR:

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg says the numbers present Democrats with a real opportunity for electoral gains. "All of these issues are related to different kinds of foreign threats to the country," he notes. "On every single issue, voters favor the Democrats. This is a different landscape -- we were looking for 20-point advantages for Republicans on anything related to security. This ought to be the center of where you would trust the Republicans, and that's not happening here. There's clearly a new opening, new doubts about the Republicans and new openings for the Democrats."

Charles King, a retired logger from North Bend, Ore., was one of those polled. He describes himself as a strong Republican and says Iraq is the issue that's changed his opinion of President Bush.

"I think he's a little out of touch with the people," King says of the president. "I'm unhappy with the Iraq situation. It was supposed to be 'get in, get it done, and get out of there,' and so far that's not happening."

In this year's midterm elections, Democrats will argue it's time for a change. That seems to be working with Eric Meiner, a political independent from Charlotte, N.C., who says he now trusts the Democrats more to deal with the war in Iraq.

"At this point in time in the war, I think the Democrats can handle it best, only because the Republicans have been handling it for three years, and it's become a real failure," Meiner says.

Nothing's guaranteed, but the Bush fatigue and desire for change is growing as we get closer to November. American's are tired of the Schiavo Congress, and want real issues addressed. The rabid base is dispirited, so the R';s are likely to try to whip them up any way they can... Hillary, Feingold, gay marriage, SD abortion politics, whatever. But that tactic is wearing thin. The uneven economy, the deficit, Katrina and the war all trump the PR crap the Republicans specialize in. The same tired techniques won't wash this time.

The Democrats represent change. It's not that they have no ideas, it's that they have too many ideas and not enough spokespeople. But that only matters to talking heads and debate teams. Americans want change, and come 2006, they'll vote for the non-status quo.

[UPDATE] ; Newseek poll (Bush at 36%) here.

All of this bodes ill for the Republicans as midterm congressional elections approach this fall, although some Democratic strategists are concerned that the censure resolution and impeachment talk may actually make for an unwanted distraction. Registered voters continue to prefer Democratic candidates for Congress over GOP candidates by a margin of 50 percent to 39 percent.

Comments

[Pilgrim]

Well, I'm hoping and praying for the change alluded to by Dem above.

I may have said this before --

Something the Repubs have going for them: the grotesquesly gerry-mandered districts.

Something the Dems have going for them: the real possibility that many repubs may just be so fed up with Bush that they may just not go to vote.

I'm watching it all like a hawk, not just because politics interests me, but more, because it is extremely important to the future of the U.S., and the world.

The damage that has been done is astounding but, please God, not yet irreversible (like global warming, in a way).

I'm really interested in Connecticut. I wanted to contribute money to Ned Lamont. Can't because I'm not a U.S. citizen.

By the way, DemFrontCT, I enjoy and appreciate your posts. Also emptywheel is good, sometimes digs up and figures out some amazing stuff, such as Plame issues and Cheney shooting.

[Newsie8200]

I just hope we win enough seats to get some subpoena power.

The large number of people who strongly disapprove are people who aren't going to change their minds no matter what the GOP and BushCo throw out there. They're sufficiently pissed off enough that they'll be ready to vote for any kind of change in Nov.

[Newsie8200]

One more thing... I was just writing about the NPR poll, and I noticed a quote in the NPR story that you didn't excerpt...

The furor over the Dubai ports deal touched raw nerves for many voters. Bette Marheska, from Boiling Springs Lakes, N.C., says she trusted the Democrats more on the ports issue because of her concerns about global competition for American jobs, as well as homeland security.

"The Democrats, I think, are more home-based," Marheska says. "I think they're more likely to say, 'We need to take care of home first before we go take care of them,' so I think they're better equipped for it. "

One of the reasons why I get annoyed with the whole "voters don't know what Democrats stand for" line is that voters have a very general sense of the differences between the two parties. The stereotypes and generalities of both parties have stayed the same over the years.

[Pilgrim]

and actually, the move toward change would not have to be a big one to bring about change, so close were the 2004 results.

oh yes, I keep forgetting those damn voting machines, another potential problem. But I've had the impression that DemFrontCT is not so concerned about that. I hope I'm wrong to be concerned, and he's right not to be.

[Pilgrim]

Now it turns out that Rassmussen poll is actually down to 40% ! Turns out he didn't post as soon in the day as usual. I saw it on Kos, and checked and sure enough.

He also says that 38% of Americans agree with the Feingold censure move.

[p.lukasiak]

He also says that 38% of Americans agree with the Feingold censure move.

the answer to the "censure" question depends upon how it is asked. Rasmussen phrased it as if "terrorists" were being wiretapped without warrants. ARG came up with better number by asking a question about wiretapping American citizens without warrants. I'm personally waiting for the pollster who says "wiretapped illegally" in their censure question.....

[Mimikatz]

In the Newsweek poll only 29% approve of his handling of Iraq, and 65% disapprove. That is really Nixonian. Only 44% trust him on terrorism and homeland security. When that is gone there's really nothing to recommend him.

[libopinion]

Jesus - say goodbye to the fourth amendment ....

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/060327/27fbi.htm