by DemFromCT
I'd be remiss if I didn't update you all: Bloomberg and others are reporting 5 new H5N1 cases in Turkey, bringing the confirmed cases up to 14 + 1 (the 1 is a now-deceased sibling of 2 confirmed dead awaiting further testing). There are 3 deaths, and up to 50 suspected cases scattered now from east to west.
This is all in 5 days, mind you. What's lacking in the reports? well, if there's any good news, it's that these all seem to be bird exposure and B2H (bird to human) rather than H2H. OTOH, the virus may be 'learning' how to spread to humans.
In 1918, the virus spread directly from bird to humans before reaching pandemic status, so this may have happened before. But there's more we don't know than we know.
Flu Wiki will do its best to keep up. Stay tuned. And note the Feds have issued a press release suggesting everyone start stocking up.
I've gone from scattershot stockpiling around my regular trips to the grocery store to drawing up lists. Ice storms and hurricanes we will always have with us, regardless of panflu.
Posted by: Melanie | January 09, 2006 at 09:29
Do we know what the 3 dead died of (how did the flu kill them)?
Posted by: emptypockets | January 09, 2006 at 11:08
No, presumptively ARDS but possibly DIC because they had bleeding from the mouth.
Posted by: DemFromCT | January 09, 2006 at 11:24
For the uninitiated -- I count myself among you -- a quick Google reveals that would be Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome and Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (scroll down to WyomingBill RN at 1:04).
In short, ARDS seems to be the medical term for "they couldn't breathe anymore"; DIC means "their blood starting clotting all over." What actually goes wrong in ARDS seems unclear.
There were some predictions floated over the last several months about what would happen if H5N1 got into humans. Some of the predictions suggested different outcomes for how the virus would spread. (The phrase "cytokine storm" was in some of the predictions.) As we're getting some data points now for how H5N1 is behaving in humans, is it becoming any clearer which predictions are being borne out?
I am asking vaguely because I was never that clear about the competing models. In my mind I have them grouped as "kills-quick, spreads-slow" (few infectious carriers -- you get it, you die soon after) and "kills-slow, spreads-quick" (many infectious carriers -- you get it, you cough and sneeze and spread it around for months before dying). But that may not be the best way to think about them. If it is useful, I guess one question would be, any idea when these people were infected (how long it's taken them to show symptoms)?
Posted by: emptypockets | January 09, 2006 at 11:44
"kills slow, spreads quick" - the incubation period is 1-9 days, longer than seasonal flu. And there does seem to be ARDS, thought to be secondary to cytokine storm, in the young people who have died.
See also basic science at Flu wiki.
Posted by: DemFromCT | January 09, 2006 at 13:58
http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/ I think this blog is written by one of the Flu Wiki people. Good info, anyway.
Posted by: Margot | January 09, 2006 at 23:31
Effect Measure is excellent. And it is written by one of the Flu Wiki people.
Personally, I think any blog written by a Flu Wiki person is terrific. ;-)
Posted by: DemFromCT | January 10, 2006 at 08:14
The other Flu Wiki people blog at
http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com
http://www.node707.com
http://pogge.ca
Posted by: Melanie | January 10, 2006 at 08:22
oh, and http://thenexthurrah.typepad.com/the_next_hurrah/ (DemFromCT).
Posted by: DemFromCT | January 10, 2006 at 10:36