Dueling Polls

by DemFromCT

Good news for Bush from the WaPo, and bad news from CNN. From today's ABC/WaPo poll:

President Bush's approval rating has surged in the wake of last week's elections in Iraq, reversing what had been an extended period of decline, with Americans now expressing renewed optimism about the future of democracy in Iraq, the campaign against terrorism, and the U.S. economy, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

Bush's overall approval rating rose to 47 percent, up from 39 percent in early November, with 52 percent saying they disapprove of how he is handling his job. His approval rating on Iraq jumped 10 percentage points since early November to 46 percent, while his rating on the economy rose 11 percentage points to 47 percent. A clear majority, 56 percent, said they approve of the way Bush is handling the fight against terrorism -- a traditional strong point in his reputation that nonetheless had flagged to 48 percent in the November poll.

Frankly, that's so unbelievable that I don't believe it. From CNN:

President Bush's approval ratings do not appear to have changed significantly, despite a number of recent speeches he's given to shore up public support for the war in Iraq and its historic elections on Thursday.

A CNN/USA Today Gallup poll conducted over the weekend found his approval rating stood at 41 percent, with a majority, or 52 percent, saying it was a mistake to send troops to Iraq. More than half, or 56 percent, disapprove of how the president is handling his job, and 61 percent say they disapprove of how he is handling Iraq specifically. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The poll interviews were conducted before President Bush's Oval Office address, which was broadcast on primetime television Sunday.

There's nothing in recent polling to indicate this kind of bounce in the WaPo. Even the Bush-friendly Rasmussen doesn't show numbers like these (it's at 44%). Something's up with these numbers. I wouldn't believe them unless there's more data from other polls to confirm.

UPDATE: See this from MP and Franklin. The recent Hotline poll has Bush at 50%, whereas all the others have Bush closer to 40%. Now the WaPo joins what looks like a wide spread. Oh, those internals!!

UPDATE: see here for more succinct analysis.

Comments

[mainsailset]

Obviously they're now using Diebold equipment. It's not real.

[DemFromCT]

see this re maybe.

[p.lukasiak]

here's the key graf from the Post article...

Bush's pre-Christmas rebound was largely fueled by a sharp increase in support among his core supporters. In the past month, the proportion of Republicans approving of the president's performance increased by nine percentage points to 87 percent. And among conservatives, three in four said Bush was doing a good job, up 12 points from November. Among Democrats, independents and moderates, Bush's support remained unchanged or increased only modestly.

In other words, sane America is still sane, and insane America is, as to be expected, fluctuating wildly in their appraisal of Bush as the sane Americans look on in wonderment...

(This information also suggests that the internals will show a BIG jump in "republicans" polled)

[Mimikatz]

The bounce, if indeed it exists, on the part of Bush's supporters is bound to be reversed to some extent when the NSA spying story gets out more. There are a few other R's who have the intellectual consistency of Bob Barr. This is about as far from limited government as we have ever gotten.

And as Abramoff/DeLay/defense scandals hit the fan, I would expect the dropoff to accelerate.

And what if the religious Shia ally with Sunnis and demand that the US leave? Juan Cole didn't find that unlikely. What an outcome--a fundamentalist Islamic government installed at our expense (and the Iraq's as well, to be sure) that then tells us thanks, but please leave. Democracy on the march! All the way home.

[janinsanfran]

Remember gas prices. I never thought I'd see gas at $2.07 again (imagine it is lower most places.) Bush tracks with gas prices.

[DemFromCT]

relooking at the new data with the old data, MP sez:

Among registered voters, the Bush job approval rating was somewhere in between the levels measured by the Hotline and Fox News polls. The average of the two was 46% approval, one point lower than what the ABC/Post poll released tonight (47%).

what's happened as pointed out above is that the core Bush voters have temporarily given him a pass. From the WaPo:

Bush's pre-Christmas rebound was largely fueled by a sharp increase in support among his core supporters. In the past month, the proportion of Republicans approving of the president's performance increased by nine percentage points to 87 percent. And among conservatives, three in four said Bush was doing a good job, up 12 points from November. Among Democrats, independents and moderates, Bush's support remained unchanged or increased only modestly.

That's why looking at the internals is so important. we don't have them in regard to how many R's this time vs last time, but that's a floating number.

[Dongus]

The polls all show less than a 50% approval rating on most aspects of W's performance. Considering that these numbers reflect the products of an agressive media presence AND the debatably successful elections in Iraq, the numbers are still failing grades. In spite of the best he can do, inspite of all of the manufactured PR, inspite of the spin and twist, he still can't get a passing grade. It's sort of like the note my summer camp sent home to let my family know their kid was now an advanced non-swimmer. W's counting on a PR "ropa-dope" to keep him on his feet and in the ring. We can't let up now.

[DemFromCT]

more from MP (12/20 update):

Professor Franklin has cruched all of these numbers and he continues to see the Bush job rating from last weeks' Hotline/Diageo poll as a statistical outlier. Read his post to get all the details, but here is the bottom line. He uses statistical modeling to estimate the current Bush job rating at 43.9% and concludes:

[T]he new ABC/WP poll is not inconsistent with the estimate that approval is currently 43.9%. We should expect to see polls this high if approval really is 43.9% and need not conclude that approval has surged to 47%...

I'm still putting my money on the significant upturn to about 42-43%, and holding off on bets in the high 40s. For now.

One more piece of the puzzle to consider: The Rasmusssen automated survey shows no discernable trend during December. The current results (46% approve, 52% disapprove) is just one percentage point higher than their average for the month (45% approve, 53% disapprove). I will be taking a closer look at the Rasmussen trends in posts to follow later this week.