Your Nuclear Option Resource Center: Monday Edition

By DHinMI

Maybe we're the Nightline of blogs.  When we started The Next Hurrah a few months ago, we figured there would be plenty of issues that we would tackle the might get us some attention for readers, other bloggers, journalists and politicos.  But like Nightline, which began as nightly coverage of the Iranian Hostage Crisis and with which it was long identified, the identity of The Next Hurrah has become linked to the impending Nuclear Option in the Senate.  I don't know that any of us would have guessed that one of us would be named "Bloggers' Parliamentarian," that one of our posts would inspire an uggabugga flowchart, or  that TNH would be compared to the RAND Corporation or nuclear theorist Herman Kahn's Hudson Institute.  (Herman Kahn was one of the main inspirations for Stanley Kubrick's Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb; since the comparison was intended as a compliment, that's how we're taking it, but I prefer to think of ourselves as the Union of Concerned Bloggers.)  But we have written a lot on the Nuclear Option, none more than Kagro X, whose series Notes on the Nuclear Option initially brought many of you here, and we're pleased that we've come to be seen as a good resource on this ongoing drama of process and politics.

Bill Frist has been promising the arrival of Godot the Nuclear Option for months, but it looks like it will finally arrive this week.  So, to help those of you looking for a tutorial on the Nuclear Option, or for anyone who may have missed some of our posts and would like to get caught up on the procedural, historical, political and personal factors figuring into the battle over judicial nominations and the filibuster, we've assembled all of our posts in a handy index.  Everything we've written on the Nuclear Option is linked below; we hope it's helpful.  If you have any comments, questions, news, or opinions on the impending launch of the Nuclear Option, please feel free to use the comment thread as a Nuclear Option open thread. 

If you're going to read anything on the Nuclear Option, it should be Kagro X's series Notes on the Nuclear Option.  It may look intimidating, but it's really not that long.  After you read this, you'll be more of an expert on the Nuclear Option than just about any journalist currently covering the Senate.

Nuclear Option Proliferation
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part II
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part III
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part IV
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part V
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part VI
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part VII
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part VIII
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part IX
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part X
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part XI
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part XII
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part XIII
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part XIV
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part XV
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part XVI
Notes on the Nuclear Option -- Part XVII

Footnotes on the Nuclear Option
Footnotes on the Nuclear Option -- Part II
Footnotes on the Nuclear Option -- Part III
Footnotes on the Nuclear Option -- Part IV
Footnotes on the Nuclear Option -- Part V
Footnotes on the Nuclear Option -- Part VI
Footnotes on the Nuclear Option -- Part VII
Footnotes on the Nuclear Option -- Part VIII
Footnotes on the Nuclear Option -- Part IX

In addition to Kagro X's posts, several of us have written our own pieces, some background pieces on the principal figures in the controversy, some analysis of potential procedural moves, some analysis of the political backdrop and prognostication on how the vote may go.  These posts are linked below by author, with the most recent listed at the top of each author category. 

By DHinMI

What’s In Filibusted Nominee Henry Saad’s FBI File?
Is Norquist Conceding Defeat on Social Security and the Nuclear Option?
When You Don’t Have the Vote, You Talk. When You Have the Vote, You Vote.
Bush Trots Out Zellout Democrat To Endorse Extremist Judicial Candidate
Filibusted Judge’s Wife Was a Swift Boats Contributor
Bush Nominee’s Father Led Last Filibuster of Supreme Court Nominee
Say Goodbye to “The Nuclear Option?”
Santorum Nukes Frist
Foxman, Frist and Byrd
The Filibuster and Southern Realignment
Bush and C. Boyden Gray Pass Up Opportunity to Defend DeLay 

By DemFromCT

Nuclear Hardball
Voting on the Nuclear Option: 3-D Chess
Head-Counting the Nuclear Option Vote
On Bolton, the Nuclear Option, and the Perception of Power--Part III
On Bolton, the Nuclear Option, and the Perception of Power--Part II
On Bolton, the Nuclear Option, and the Perception of Power--Part I

By emptywheel

Back to Specter: A Moderate Ultimatum?
Time to Review Arlen Specter’s Deal With the Devil

By RonK, Seattle

The Failsafe Option
Sub-Nuclear Options
The Knights Who’ll Say Nay

Comments

[RonK, Seattle]

On terms of reference: we've had the "Nuclear Option", the "Constitutional Option", the "Byrd Option", etc.

The Carpetbagger Report (via TPM) details a total of six (with "Fairness Option", "Filibuster Reform", "Majority Rules Option").

I'm inclined to characterize my Failsafe Option as one of a broad class of responses, the "Institutional Option".

And I favor dubbing the "Constitutional Option" the "Orwellian Option".

But Sen. Byrd, on the floor within the hour, goes us one better, nominating the "Turnip Truck Option" -- as in "any cabbagehead can fall off the turnip truck and realize he has that option, but no fool in history has been fool enough to use it" (or words to that effect).

[DHinMI]

Robert Byrd: Cato the Elder if he grew up "back the holler."

[Steve]

Sen. Byrd's term is particularly appropriate, because the only person who would believe the current blocking of judges is unprecedented in the last 214 years is one who just fell off the turnip truck.

[The Heretik]

I linked to this previously under the um nuclear umbrella. You have all done the most impressive job. I am going to take all these links and drop them over here Nuke Notes, in latest and all continuing updates my way on this potentially dark disaster. Kudos.

[Petey]

As someone who would like to see the filibuster eliminated, as someone who would like to see the Senate weakened, and as someone who wouldn't mind seeing this done by Frist getting his 50 votes, I'd like to offer a couple of alternative names:

The Senate Weakening Option

and

The Republicans Haven't Thought This Through Very Well Option

-----

And Petey would like to put his prognostication skills on record ahead of the final hours. After offering the important caveat that I could see this going either way, if I had to guess, I'd say:

The Nuclear Option will not come to a vote on Tuesday.

Either RonK's delaying tactic will come to pass, or the Group of 12 will get their compromise. The Self Interest of Moderates will carry the day over the Long Arm of Leadership.

[DHinMI]

Hey, Petey, are you a professional athlete? I'm wondering because of your deft use of the third-person; you know, like "'Ricky Henderson has to sign a contract,' said outfielder Ricky Henderson, 'that will take care of Ricky Henderson and Ricky Henderson's family'"

As for Petey's predictions, I really don't know what the hell is going to happen. I think Frist and Bush have let this thing get so far out of their control and in the control of the wingers that they can't hold it back. I think Frist will push things as far as he can; what happens once the launch sequence is triggered, God only knows. But I will say this: I don't think anyone in the Senate knows what's going to happen either.

[DemFromCT]

New Gallup poll is bad news for Bush (further drop in approval) and the kids in charge of the Senate. The American folks want (Democratic) grown-ups in charge.

The question is whether this will affect the N.O. vote... but how could it not? Nothing like a poll to buck up moderates.

[Petey]

"New Gallup poll is bad news for Bush ... and the kids in charge of the Senate. ... The question is whether this will affect the N.O. vote"

According to The Note, last week the WH was trying to calm frayed nerves in the Senate by saying the elections are too far off for this to matter...

[Petey]

"Hey, Petey, are you a professional athlete? I'm wondering because of your deft use of the third-person"

Petey usually dips into the third person only for prognostication purposes.

And FWIW, while Petey guesses that Frist (unfortunately) won't get his way, this prediction does not rise to the certainty level of a Rasheed Wallace guarantee.

[DemFromCT]

"Do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress, or if the Democrats controlled Congress?"
Republicans 36% (41%)
Democrats 47% (45%)

That'll calm frayed nerves, Petey. Wrong side of the aisle for the WH, though.

[Petey]

Drudge has a flashing siren...

[DHinMI]

this prediction does not rise to the certainty level of a Rasheed Wallace guarantee.

Those are very high probability guarantees, aren't they?

[DHinMI]

Turn on CNN--waiting to start presser to announce deal averting filibuster...

[Petey]

Boo! Hiss!

I don't like the terms. The Dems should have stood firm on stopping at least one of either Brown or Owens.

[Petey]

The agreement doesn't preclude the GOP going nuclear over a Supreme Court nomination filibuster...

[demtom]

Okay, I can see where this is a blow to Frist, but someone explain to me why I shouldn't feel let down at seeing Owen and Brown go through.

I have to say, the word "Munich" is floating vaguely to my brain. (Seeing Lieberman's smiling face out there isn't helping)

[Abby]

Semi-OT. Does anyone know anything about this deal that CNN is breaking, because if these people have said okay to Rogers and Owen, then I'm pretty disgusted with these Beltway Democrats.

[Petey]

"I have to say, the word "Munich" is floating vaguely to my brain."

Agreed. Reid blinked first, and he shouldn't have.

[Kagro X]

I wonder is someone has a secret whip count on either Brown or Owen that we don't know about.

The deal itself isn't very exciting, but I wonder if there are more surprises to come.

No bets, though.